By Daniel Béland

May 5, 2025

In his first post-election news conference, Prime Minister Mark Carney said that he’s in politics “to do big things, not to be something.” He also stated that, “Now is the time for ambition, to be bold, to meet this crisis with the overwhelming, positive force of a united Canada.”

Based on some of the pledges he mentioned in his speech, such as the elimination of trade barriers between provinces and a dramatic increase in the number of homes built every year, key aspects of his “bold” domestic agenda cannot materialize without successful intergovernmental relations, including and especially productive interactions with the provinces and their premiers.

As Carney prepares to meet Donald Trump in their first White House bilateral, the fed-prov dynamic is also relevant to foreign policy, in the context of the ongoing trade war with the United States. Premiers have already played a prominent role within Team Canada, notably by travelling to the US to meet state and federal officials and, in some cases, by appearing on cable television to push back against Trump’s belligerent use of what he calls “economic force”. In the case of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, she has carved out a more nuanced role for herself as a fellow right-wing populist.

The good news for Prime Minister Carney is that Conservative Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a key figure of Team Canada who has Liberal friends, including Chrystia Freeland and Dominic Leblanc, already enjoys a close working relationship with his government. Because the federal Liberals’ disappointing election performance in the country’s most populous province contributed to Carney’s minority government outcome, protecting the auto industry and other vital components of Ontario’s economy is a priority.

For the Liberals, Ford has been a surprisingly willing partner in recent years, and they will do their best to nurture their relationship, which benefits them and the premier who, like Prime Minister Carney, has put the economy and the trade war with the United States at the top of his agenda.

While Ford has been on relatively good terms with the federal Liberals for several years now, Quebec Premier François Legault didn’t have a strong relationship with Justin Trudeau and, in the past, has suggested that he would prefer to work with a Conservative Prime Minister. Yet, Legault is a weakened premier who seems willing to give Carney and his government a chance.

Because his party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has been trailing the Parti Québecois (PQ) in the polls for some time and the next provincial election is scheduled for October 2026, Quebec’s premier wants to show results in areas such as economic development and immigration policy, a priority in which direct engagement with the federal government is necessary.

Unfortunately for Prime Minister Carney, dealing with the fourth most populous province, Alberta, is likely to be much more complicated.

To that we can add that the federal Liberals easily won both the popular vote and the seat count in Quebec, where they’re now stronger than they’ve been in a long time. This puts Prime Minister Carney in a position of strength vis-à-vis Legault, who might stick to his new, more constructive tone when dealing with the Liberal government, which is very likely to remain in place until after the next Quebec elections.

Turning to BC, it’s clear that Premier David Eby and his NDP government are pleased with the outcome of the recent federal election. This is the case partly because, as B.C. journalist Rob Shaw writes: “The result staves off what was shaping up to be a major showdown between Premier David Eby’s administration and a potential federal Conservative government over crime and addictions policies that Poilievre intended to force upon the province.”

More generally, Carney and Eby are more aligned ideologically and they do not have an “openly hostile relationship” like the one between the latter and Poilievre. Overall, the BC NDP and the federal Liberals are in sync in a number of key policy areas, which should facilitate dealings between the province and the federal government.

Unfortunately for Prime Minister Carney, dealing with the fourth most populous province, Alberta, is likely to be much more complicated. One important factor here is that while the Liberals won the popular vote and the largest number of seats in Ontario, Quebec and BC, in Alberta they only found a way to two elect two MPs, despite clearly improving their share of the popular vote in the province, which remains a true Conservative stronghold, especially outside of Calgary and Edmonton.

At the same time, Premier Smith has adopted a hard line towards the federal Liberals, a situation that reflects the preferences of both her UCP base and her populist tactics. Considering what happened to her predecessor, Jason Kenney, who faced a cabinet and party revolt in the aftermath of the pandemic, and the fact that her standing is negatively affected by the ongoing Alberta Health Services (AHS) scandal, it is likely that, at least in public, Premier Smith will remain critical of the Carney government, even if she stated that her post-election meeting with the prime minister was a “positive first step”.

In fact, last week, just after Carney’s victory, Smith’s government tabled a bill that will make it much easier for her activist base to put Alberta’s existence within Canada to a referendum. If the bill is signed into law, a referendum on Alberta’s independence is almost certain to occur, a situation that would cause massive headaches in Ottawa and elsewhere around the country, regardless of the fact that Premier Smith attempted to distance herself from that outcome as a motive for the move, saying that she believes in “Alberta sovereignty within a United Canada”.

From the perspective of the federal government, such a referendum would be a divisive and politically stressful episode occurring at a time when the country also faces a disruptive and economically perilous trade war with the United States. Although the trade war, the economy, and the housing crisis are on the top of the Liberal government’s agenda, the political situation in Alberta and, to a lesser extent, in Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan, could seriously complicate Carney’s job in the field of intergovernmental relations and beyond.

Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director (on leave) of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.