By Daniel Béland

July 23, 2025

What a difference a year makes.

During this week’s annual summer retreat of the Council of the Federation (COF), also known as “Canada’s Premiers,” Prime Minister Mark Carney was unanimously praised for his leadership amid a spirit of collaboration among the provinces and territories, and between the premiers and Ottawa, to foster economic growth and internal trade.

The subtext of this new dynamic has been summed up as “nothing unites like a common enemy”, while the new fed-prov theme song remains, as christened by Ontario Premier Doug Ford in Saskatoon last month, Love is in the Air.

The apparent harmony in Huntsville this week stems largely from the return of Donald Trump to the White House but also to the departure of an unpopular Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, and his replacement by a popular one, Mark Carney, whose honeymoon with voters is hardly over yet, according to polling data.

At the same time, most premiers, especially conservative ones, seem happier to focus on trade and on the economy than on potentially centralizing new federal social programs, especially conservative premiers like Doug Ford, Danielle Smith, or even François Legault.

The new tone was evident in the official press release issued on Wednesday, the last day of the meeting, in which issues that are a typical source of confrontation between the federal government and the provinces and territories are barely mentioned. For instance, health care funding, which the COF focused on so much in recent years, is only mentioned in one short sentence: “Premiers also emphasized the importance of enhancing the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) and its escalator.”

Although some premiers discussed this issue during the meeting’s final press conference, prompted by a journalist, Quebec Premier François Legault admitted that the issue was not even raised with Prime Minister Carney when he visited the premiers on Tuesday, as the focus of their discussion was clearly on trade and the ongoing economic chaos generated by Donald Trump’s tariff war.

Compare this to key statements featured in the press release issued at the end of last year’s COF summer retreat: “Federal engagement with provinces and territories has become increasingly limited and inconsistent, as the federal government seeks to unilaterally advance programs in areas of provincial and territorial jurisdiction.”

A major area of concern for the provinces was the expansion of federal social programs under the Trudeau minority government: “Provinces and territories urge the federal government to respect provincial and territorial jurisdiction, and to collaborate as a true partner on the long-term sustainability of health initiatives and improved health outcomes. Federal initiatives such as dental care, pharmacare, and long-term care must be developed in a way that is truly collaborative, aligns with provincial and territorial priorities, and respects jurisdiction.”

Clearly, our national policy agenda has changed dramatically since last summer, as federal social policy expansion is now largely off a table newly colonized by bilateral belligerence, economic uncertainty, industrial damage wrought by Trump’s tariff tumult, and the collective measures Carney has promoted to bolster Canadian economic sovereignty.

But beyond the policy issues discussed and the limited-yet-significant progress made in areas like internal trade, which is still very much a work in progress, the most striking aspect of the Huntsville meeting was the warm intergovernmental and interpersonal climate.

Premier Ford did very well as chair in recent months, partly because his role as chair coincided with his role as ‘Captain Canada’ in the Trump trade war.

A clear example of that was how Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, the outgoing COF chair and host of the meeting, publicly sang the praises of Prime Minister Carney the day after he visited the premiers. The day concluded with a “late-night fireside chat” between Ford and Carney after a group dinner at Ford’s nearby cottage, where Carney spent the night.

“The prime minister is the most humble person you’d ever want to meet,” Ford said of Carney on Tuesday after their fed-prov sleepover.

Although there is certainly some political theatre at play here, the overall impression of the public-facing component is one of positive, “loving” vibes. As seasoned pollster Bruce Anderson put it on social media: “I don’t recall, in at least 50 years, as much enthusiasm for working together & with Ottawa.”

While the COF was created in late 2003 largely to lobby the federal government for more health care money (the “national sport” of premiers for decades now), premiers (originally only provincial ones) have gathered regularly since 1960 and their meetings serve other purposes, including and especially collaboration on issues of provincial jurisdiction such as internal trade.

The COF has long been long criticized for its limitations (including the ongoing reluctance to include Indigenous leaders as full members instead of simply inviting them, as they did on Monday), and proposals to improve the architecture of executive federalism in Canada are currently discussed.

Yet, the COF is likely here to stay and, at least more in tone than in substance, this year’s summer retreat proved politically successful at a time when many Canadians want political leaders across jurisdictions to work together to strengthen Canada’s economy in the context of Trump’s trade war.

As he noted in the concluding remarks of the closing press conference, incoming COF chair Rob Lantz, who only became premier of PEI this winter, has “big shoes to fill”.

Premier Ford did very well as chair in recent months, partly because his role as chair coincided with his role as “Captain Canada” in the Trump trade war. While Premier Lantz is much less experienced than Premier Ford, he also has less baggage and he represents a small province that few Canadians have grievances against.

More important, if the trade war continues, the spirit of collaboration witnessed this week in Huntsville might last, even if the public lovefest we just witnessed shouldn’t hide real and enduring tensions among premiers over major issues ranging from equalization to pipelines.

As for the evolution of their relationship with the federal government, it will hinge largely on Prime Minister Carney’s next moves, not only on trade but also on fiscal and economic policies. As witnessed this week, the expectations are very high, which should give pause to the Prime Minister and his team. Love is in the air, but for how long?

Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director (on leave) of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.