By Bruce Anderson

August 3, 2025

By most estimates, Donald Trump has collected at least $100 billion dollars from American consumers and businesses with his tariff policies this year. Every day, he describes this as a “win” for America, pretending that it’s not a tax on Americans.

To a lot of Americans, the effects of the tariffs have been hard to discern, and so the rhetoric just sounds like rhetoric. Things may be about to get more real.

While it’s true that the stock market isn’t a perfect reflection of the economy, the quarterly earnings reports of hundreds of publicly traded companies are like an exam that Trump’s economic policies will have to take, and the questions aren’t only essay questions.

Companies have legal obligations to report their results fairly, and the risk of misleading shareholders and markets are serious.

Companies also prepare notes with their quarterly results, that offer an analysis of what’s happening to their businesses. This often includes guidance about how they see their businesses being impacted by market and policy conditions.

The next big wave of earnings reports happens in the next week or so.

Trump didn’t like the jobs numbers reported on Friday, so he fired the official responsible for preparing and issuing them. But if he doesn’t like what corporate America has to say, he won’t have a similar choice available. It will be his word that his tariff policies are good for America, against the evidence that is already piling up; that they are having the opposite effect.

How many firms will report weaker earnings and attribute these to tariffs? How many will offer forward guidance that will caution investors that tariffs will do more harm in the months ahead?

A lot of companies have been reluctant to criticize Trump, because protecting their shareholders from angry Trump retaliation is part of their fiduciary responsibility. That’s a reasonable position to take, until the burden of fiduciary responsibility shifts — and your responsibility to shareholders is to tell them about these tariff harms and to push for a change in US policy.

Trump didn’t like the jobs numbers reported on Friday, so he fired the official responsible for preparing and issuing them. But if he doesn’t like what corporate America has to say, he won’t have a similar choice available.

We may be on the cusp of more such pressure, and almost certainly will see more of it when Q3 results are reported in November.

To get a sense of what this might sound like, we can look back at what some companies have already said.

General Motors has said Trump’s tariffs could cost them as much as $4-$5 billion this year. Ford said tariffs were expected to cost the company $2.5 billion. Harley Davidson withdrew its forecast for future earnings due to tariffs on steel and aluminium, and it’s rival that makes Indian motorcycles, Polaris, has also flagged tariff concerns. Berkshire Hathaway warned that “steep tariffs” were hurting its business. Whirlpool slashed its forecast. Procter and Gamble noted a possible $1 billion tariff hit. Apple has signalled $800 million in tariff costs expected to rise to $1.1 billion. Alcoa, America’s largest aluminium producer, has repeatedly warned that the tariffs will be bad for American customers, as its tariff costs ballooned to $115 million in the second quarter.

In the next two weeks, many report cards will be coming in. McDonalds, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, Shopify, Berkshire Hathaway, Amgen, Pfizer will be among dozens of companies to let investors and the rest of the world know what the actual impacts are, and how it is affecting their confidence in what lies ahead.

While we can’t know how many of these companies will criticize Trump’s policies, we can be pretty sure that few, if any, will cheer on his approach. Other than on political talk panels, and MAGA media platforms, it’s almost impossible to find anyone who thinks American consumers and businesses will be better off as these tariffs mount.

We’re heading for a collision of real-world evidence versus Trump’s made-up world fantasy. He’s never really shied away from that kind of fight before, but intimidation won’t keep companies from meeting their reporting obligations.

And investors must now conclude that his musing and bluster about tariffs are no longer hypothetical. Pushing down earnings, pushing up inflation, and raising doubts about the stability of the US economy are all likely to weigh on investor sentiment in the next twelve to fourteen weeks.

This might seem like an eternity to worried trading partners in Canada and elsewhere — but it’s likely the only kind of pressure that has a chance of causing a shudder among Republican legislators and candidates across America, and a rethink of these harmful policies.

Policy Contributor Bruce Anderson has been a pollster, strategy and communications advisor for more than 40 years. He is a frequent commentator on Canadian politics and public policy including on The Bridge podcasts. He is a founding Partner and Chief Strategy Officer of Spark Advocacy. He was an active, public supporter of Mark Carney during the Liberal leadership campaign and federal election.