By Don Newman

November 18, 2025

Pierre Poilievre didn’t want an election, and he knew that Monday night’s vote in the House of Commons on the Carney government’s first budget would be close. But the numbers that really mattered to the man doing the counting had more to do with voters outside than inside the House of Commons.

When any minority government loses a vote of confidence, an election is almost certainly triggered. If that had happened Monday, Canadians would be going to the polls for a second federal election this year. And while Mark Carney presumably had, at best, mixed feelings about the prospect, Pierre Poilievre was almost certainly less ambivalent.

Despite labelling the budget “Carney’s credit card budget,” decrying the projected $78 Billion deficit and pledging that all the Conservatives in the party caucus would vote against it, Poilievre didn’t want to face the electorate right now, especially one that was against the prospect of a yuletide campaign.

Poilievre is facing a review of his leadership at a January convention in Calgary. If he had lost a second election before that leadership review — mandated by the Conservative Party’s constitution to be held after any leader loses an election — it would have meant the end of his leadership.

An Angus Reid poll published hours before the budget vote on Monday tracked Poilievre’s unfavourability numbers at 60%, their lowest level since he became Conservative leader. And although the same poll showed the Liberals and the Conservatives just two points apart in voting intention, those numbers are somewhat skewed by the massive support for the Tories in western Canada.

Meanwhile, polls show that Carney is far and away the most favoured to be prime minister. A recent Nanos poll showed that gap at 24 points in Carney’s favour, at 51% to 27% for Poilievre.

Those poll numbers will be difficult enough to fix before Poilievre’s January leadership review. In an immediate national election campaign — barring some spectacular gaffe marathon and downward spiral by Carney — they’d have been fatal.

So, if you’re Pierre Poilievre, how do you adamantly oppose the budget while at the same time make sure it isn’t defeated?

Although it was embarrassing to both the leader and the party, Poilievre’s job was actually made a little easier when, on the day the budget was delivered, Nova Scotia MP Chis d’Entremont defected from the Conservatives to join the Liberals. His floor crossing had the net effect of bringing the Liberals one vote closer to a positive outcome and reducing the Conservatives by the same amount.

The Liberals moved one vote closer when Green Party Leader Elizabeth May announced Monday afternoon that she would support the Liberals after hearing what she said were satisfactory answers from Carney during question period on supporting climate change goals. Still, with just over three hours to go, if everyone voted, the budget would still fail.

Those poll numbers will be difficult enough to fix before Poilievre’s January leadership review. In an immediate national election campaign — barring some spectacular gaffe marathon and downward spiral by Carney — they’d have been fatal.

Members of the Commons are summoned to vote by ringing the bells summoning them to the House. The party whips from the Government and the Official Opposition, responsible for getting their members to turn out, stand by the doors to the Commons chamber. Out of view, assistants check off the names on lists of party members. When everyone expected for the vote is in the House, the whips agree to close and lock the doors and stop the bells.

Members in the House go to their assigned desks. For most of our Parliamentary history, this was the only way their vote was counted. Since Covid 19, Members can vote remotely and by app if they notify the Commons clerk of their intention to intention to do so.

On Monday night, first, the people present and voting were counted. May, with her back-row seat, was the last to vote yes and received a grateful round of applause from the Liberals.

Then, it was the turn of the people voting against the budget — led by the Conservative leader. Some people quickly noticed that Opposition House Leader Andrew Scheer wasn’t in his place and was not counted. Not noticed at all was that Scott Reid, the chairman of the Conservative caucus, wasn’t in the House to vote “No” either.

After the NDP voted “No” but with two of their members abstaining, and two Conservative MPs not present and not voting, the remote votes were cast as expected, along party lines. It was then clear the budget was sure to pass.

Suddenly, there were Mr. Scheer and Mr. Reid. They were behind the curtains in the Opposition Lobby. Each claimed they were trying to vote remotely but could not get their apps to work, even though they were just a few feet away, out of sight of the Clerk’s desk. From their desks, they each then asked to be recorded as voting “No” — which they were allowed to do.

Scheer and Reid wanted to vote against the budget. But it appears they were also their leader’s insurance policy. If Pierre Poilievre had wanted to actually defeat the budget, they would not have been hiding behind the curtains. Once the coast was clear and the budget had passed, they rushed out with their excuse and their votes.

So, Mark Carney’s budget passed and Pierre Poilievre doesn’t have to fight an election that could have ended his political career. As they left the Chamber, some Liberals said they had “lived to fight another day.” If he had been talking, Pierre Poilievre could have said the same thing.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a past president of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.