By Daniel Béland

November 23, 2025

With Premier François Legault experiencing the throes of seemingly irrevocable voter fatigue less than a year before the scheduled October 5, 2026 Quebec election, the Parti Québecois (PQ) is benefiting from not only disenchantment with Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), but also from problems plaguing its other rivals.

While the PQ’s lead in the polls has declined in recent weeks, a series of challenges facing both the CAQ government and, more recently, the two other opposition parties represented in the National Assembly, raise the possibility that the PQ could surf to victory next year, not on the appeal of sovereignly, which about two thirds of Quebecers currently oppose, but for lack of a viable, functioning alternative.

It is hard to overstate how unpopular Premier Legault has become with Quebecers. According to a recent Léger poll, 71% of Quebeckers are dissatisfied with the CAQ premier, and 61% of them want him to step down.

In what appears to be a textbook case of “founder’s syndrome” whereby Legault’s hold on the party he created 14 years ago includes both a classic reluctance to relinquish power and a total lack of any succession plan, the premier does not seem to be going anywhere. No one has emerged who could jump in and turn things around for the party before the election, and key cabinet members continue to support him.

Beyond the premier’s low polling numbers, the CAQ government faces another major problem: some of its policies are highly controversial. In addition to Bill 1 on the creation of a provincial constitution act, which is deeply flawed and contested by legal scholars, Bill 2 on medical services has generated a powerful backlash on the part of the provinces’ physicians. Adopted on October 25 at 4:00 am after the government invoked closure, a move criticized by all the opposition parties, Bill 2 imposes a new, performance-related compensation system upon the province’s physicians.

As one would have expected, doctors have protested, including in a spectacular mass gathering at Montreal’s Bell Centre. As a growing number of physicians threatened to leave the province because of Bill 2, the people sided with the doctors and the CAQ government lost the public opinion battle over the new legislation. In a series of back-pedaling moves, the government suspended the implementation of some provisions of Bill 2. Medical associations are now seeking nothing less than the repeal of the entire legislation while fighting it in the courts.

Normally, the dire political situation facing the CAQ government would energize all the opposition parties as they head into an election year. But while the PQ remains strong, both the Liberal Party of Quebec (LPQ) and Québec Solidaire (QS) are in disarray.

Which leaves a PQ whose defining cause remains unpopular among Quebecers but whose McGill- and Oxford-educated leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has — at least so far — no scandals, leadership questions, or chaos stalling his momentum.

Last week, two bombshells shook the Liberals. First, party leader Pablo Rodriguez, who does not yet hold a seat in the National Assembly, removed MNA Marwah Rizqy as parliamentary leader and suspended her from caucus because Rizqy had fired her chief of staff, Geneviève Hinse, “without consulting the leader and without providing an explanation.” Hinse, who served as chief of staff to Rodriguez when he was in Ottawa, is now suing Rizqy for half a million dollars for wrongful dismissal.

The same week, the Journal de Montréal published an article quoting text messages that alluded in colorful language (the payment of $100 bills described as “brownies”) to vote-buying practices on the part of the Rodriguez camp during last year’s LPQ leadership race. The LPQ leader denied any knowledge of such practices, launched an inquiry into the matter by an external auditing firm, questioned the accuracy of the Journal de Montréal story and, later, threatened to sue the paper over it.

Things are also going badly for the QS, a left-wing sovereigntist party that is now polling around or below 10 percent. On Saturday, MNA Vincent Marissal was expelled from the QS caucus because of ongoing discussions he had with PQ representatives about switching parties. Saying that he was not expelled but had decided to leave the caucus, Marissal said that QS is “a party that’s paralyzed by its base, a party that’s completely bogged down and unable to break free.”

This claim that the QS base drags the party so far to the left that it renders it unelectable is not new, and the two co-spokespersons of QS, which does not have a single leader like other parties, simply accused Marissal of betrayal.

Meanwhile, the Conservative Party of Quebec is seriously handicapped by its lack of MNAs.

Which leaves a PQ whose defining cause remains unpopular among Quebecers, but whose McGill- and Oxford-educated leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has — at least so far — no scandals, leadership questions or chaos stalling his momentum. In other words, the PQ could conceivably win by default.

Lately, Plamondon has been seven-veiling chapters of the PQ’s “blue book” on its vision for an independent Quebec, including foreign policy and a possible Quebec currency — the latter prospect having stricken some veterans of previous independence debates with flashbacks.

He has also been wooing Quebec anglophones. “I hope I will convince anglophones to be a 100 per cent Quebecers,” he said in a recent interview.

At a time when a week in politics seems like three eternities in a place where drama has long been the norm, what we can predict is that 2026 will be an interesting year.

Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.