HFX President Peter Van Praagh, former Congresswoman Jane Harman, Colin Robertson, former Justice Rosalie Abella and former Defence Minister Peter McKay/HFX staff

By Colin Robertson

November 25, 2025

At the Halifax International Security Forum this past weekend, 300 participants from the world’s democracies – ministers and legislators, military and diplomats, business and civil society, scholars and journalists — gathered for a 16th year to discuss how those democracies are faring.

Not so well, based on my corridor conversations, an impression reinforced by the annual IPSOS survey. A strong majority — 79% on average across 20 countries — continue to think the world has become more dangerous. There is a similar lack of confidence in governments to deal with threats, including disinformation.

While not addressed head-on at the Forum, the speed with which the Trump administration has flooded the US domestic and international zones with its change agenda has surprised participants, going beyond even what tabletop exercises predicted. Trump 2.0 is exponentially different from Trump 1.0.

At Halifax, the most visible symbol of American hostility this year was the absence of senior US commanders because of the Pentagon’s order that “No DOD official will attend events by America Last organizations that promote globalism and hate (President Donald Trump).”

As traumatizing as the Trump revolution has been, European and British participants privately acknowledged that they are not immune from growing populist movements born of inequality and porous borders contributing to slumping public confidence in democratic institutions.

Beneath the fig leaf of shared democratic ‘values’, a sober recognition hangs in the air. The liberal order that emerged from U.S. leadership after World War II is fragmenting. The pillars of that order – reliable U.S. backing for alliances, freer trade, democracy – are collapsing. Its debris includes allied political cohesion and once unassailable intelligence sharing.

Consider Ukraine. Its resolve in the face of unprovoked Russian aggression remains a symbol of democratic resilience. Yet at the Forum, reverberations from the evolving Trump ‘peace plan’ caused real concern, accentuated by the confusion among the eight US Senators present.

Security does not float on goodwill alone. It depends on logistics, intelligence flows, equipment procurement and sustained political will. When the major partner signals ambiguity, the architecture cracks.

The reality is that democracies now face a two-front challenge.

One front is the external storm-cloud of revisionist powers – the ‘CRINKS’ (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) as the Forum dubbed them last year, flexing muscle. And, in contrast to the West, they are ‘all- in’, providing Russia with arms and dual use technology with the North Koreans putting boots on the ground.

The other front is the internal erosion of alliance certainty.

The Forum’s sessions revealed how easily domestic politics and public-opinion shifts threaten the once-steady lifeline of U.S. leadership. When Washington falters, the gap must be plugged. And that gap is wide.

Where does that leave other democracies?

They must move beyond symbolic pledges and into strategic build-out. Canada’s commitments at Halifax, spelled out by Defence Minister David McGuinty, were welcome: new personnel, procurement funding, and an increased role in the High North. But the crux is capability interoperability, secure supply chains, and sovereign intelligence buffers.

Democracies must not only stand together, they must also operate as one. But will that be through NATO? Or the EU? Or some new mini multilateral ‘coalition of the willing’?

The most visible fractures at the Forum appeared not in the Ukraine theatre but in the Middle East. Israel–Palestine remains a litmus test of allied coherence. Whereas Ukraine rallied allied publics around territorial sovereignty, the Gaza war has exposed how humanitarian, sectarian and domestic-constituency pressures split allied responses.

Gaza underlines that conflicts with deep moral and domestic resonance threaten alliance unity more than conventional wars. Democratic governments must find mechanisms to speak with one voice not only about collective security, but about rights, values and shared political risk to sustain public confidence.

Founder and President Peter Van Praagh set the tone for the Forum with his opening remarks warning that in every generation, tyrants arrive to tell the world that they have a better alternative to freedom and democracy. 

The Forum also made clear that the next battleground will be technological, not merely military. Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, secure communications, satellite intelligence: this is the domain where democracies must compete or concede.

We were warned that the democracies may have a lead for now, but China is much better at scaling up innovation. China then makes their version available and affordable to the Global South.

Western development assistance programs played a critical role in providing infrastructure designed with Western standards. The radical reduction across the democracies, especially Trump’s evisceration of USAID, is short-sighted.

The new NATO framework for emerging and disruptive technologies identifies AI, hypersonic, quantum and next-gen communications as strategic priorities. Democracies must shape the rules of these technologies before China does. Yet commercial firms, regulatory agencies and defence planners rarely talk in the same room.

In addition to its usually stimulating agenda of plenaries, fireside chats, and thematic dinners, this  year the Forum commissioned a series of essays designed to stimulate ‘conversations’. Written by Nobel Peace laureates under the umbrella of democracy, they support Ukraine and democracy as well as addressing technological resilience and innovation, Arctic and alliance security, immigration and democratic renewal.

Forum Founder and President Peter Van Praagh set the tone for the Forum with his opening remarks warning that in every generation, tyrants arrive to tell the world that they have a better alternative to freedom and democracy. But, he added, “democracy is strong and democracy works”.

New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen led the U.S, congressional delegation again this year and received a standing ovation for her contributions.

Former Supreme Court Justice Rosalie Abella spoke to The Globe and Mail’s Bob Fife. Abella said that her journey from refugee camp in post-war Germany through Pier 21 to the Supreme Court could only have happened in Canada.

The Forum is much more than just an annual conference. Its programs include the Peace with Women Fellowship, the15@15 Youth Building Democracy video competition, and the annual John McCain Prize for Leadership in Public Service.

The Forum is a Canadian asset in its contribution to informed public discussion of collective security for the democracies.

The era of automatic American-led reassurance is over. Democracies cannot afford to re-live their Cold War style of reliance. They must invest in sovereign capabilities, deepen alliance interoperability, and build resilient technology-ecosystems. Ukraine remains a symbol but the test ahead may arrive as a drone-created blackout, a data-error cascade from cyberbots, or a divided allied reaction.

The rules-based order is evolving. The survival and renewal of this essential order, especially for middle powers like Canada, will depend both on rhetoric – leaders need to communicate about their plans to deal with threats – but even more on readiness.

Continuing declarations of solidarity as we have seen on Ukraine are important. But even more important are deliverable arms and the architectures of a mutually reinforcing industrial defence capacity across the alliance.

Democracies must now become not just values-based but operationally aligned. Halifax delivered that message. Complacent for too long, we are behind but we can catch up. The hard work starts now.

Contributing Writer Colin Robertson, a former career diplomat, is a fellow and host of the Global Exchange podcast with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Ottawa.