By Don Newman

December 17, 2025

Canada is still adjusting to the dramatic political changes that affected the country in 2025. The coming year will likely include the same kind of disruptions both at home and elsewhere that will shake the political firmament in 2026.

The dramatic comeback of the Liberal Party this past year and its victory in the April general election stood the political landscape on its head. The replacement of Justin Trudeau with Mark Carney as Liberal leader took the party to victory in the subsequent election.

But as dramatic as that shift was, the final results left the Liberals three seats short of a majority and the complete control of the House of Commons and its committees that comes with that status.

Two floor crossings by Conservative members to join the Liberals have reduced that margin to just one and there are rumours that further defections from the Conservatives could lift the government to the majority denied it at the polls.

If that happens, it will change the political calculations of every party.

The governing Liberals will have another three years to pursue their dramatic agenda of trying to wean the country from its overreliance on the United States as both an easy trading partner based on CUSMA — the trade agreement among Canada, the United States and Mexico — and a military defender through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).

Carney has already committed millions in new defence spending, reached trade agreements with a number of countries and the European Union,  and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the government of Alberta that Premier Danielle Smith hopes will lead to a new pipeline from the province’s oil sands to a yet-to-be-determined port on the Northwest Coast of British Columbia.

That MOU reflects the same “Build Big” policy thrust of the new Major Projects Office, tasked with vetting and approving grand-scale infrastructure and resource projects.

All of these policy priorities have been triggered by the volatile and unpredictable presidency of Donald Trump.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has pursued a so-called “America First” agenda that has: imposed punishing tariffs on America’s trading partners; insulted the international community at the United Nations; left Europe open to a future attack by Russia; and promulgated a new security strategy that will retract U.S. strategic interests to the Western Hemisphere and leave other parts of the globe to the controlling influence of China and Russia.

In fact, the effects of that security strategy are plainly in sight.

The American attacks on the Maduro regime in Venezuela — the bombing of small boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific that Washington says are running drugs from that country to the United States, the seizure of an oil tanker, Trump’s order Tuesday of a blockade of all “sanctioned oil tankers into Venezuela”, and the massing of an armada of ships and soldiers off the coast of the country has the world convinced the Americans want regime change and access Venezuela’s massive oil reserves.

The coming year will likely include the same kind of disruptions both at home and elsewhere that will shake the political firmament in 2026.

The implications are clear for other countries in the Western Hemisphere, including Canada, with its store of developed and yet-to-be-developed critical minerals the United States will need, as well as potash reserves and other resources.

While all of this is going on, the federal Conservatives will hold a convention next month in Calgary to confirm Pierre Poilievre as their leader.

For many, that would seem an unlikely outcome. Poilievre blew a 20-point lead in the public opinion polls to lose the general election, and in the process lost the Ottawa-area seat he had held for 20 years. He won a safe Conservative seat in Alberta to get back into the Commons.

Although the Conservatives and the Liberals are close in support in opinion surveys, Poilievre is 20 points behind Carney when Canadians pick who they prefer as Prime Minister.

However, the base of the Conservative Party is still loyal to the leader. They will give him a healthy endorsement of his stewardship of the party and he will continue his slash-and-burn attacks in the Commons and elsewhere even though it is those attacks that contribute to his unfavourable image among Canadians generally.

While the Liberals try to focus Canadians’ attention on what they say will be a better world when their long-term agenda is carried out, the Conservatives will try to convince Canadians that their more immediate cost-of-living worries are Mark Carney’s fault. And while all of this is going on, the New Democratic Party will be looking for a new leader.

The last election was a disaster of the NDP. It was reduced to just seven seats in the House of Commons, lost its leader, Jagmeet Singh, and its official party status. It now has few opportunities to formally question the government and has no seats on committees studying legislation.

To regain those privileges, it would require a minimum of 12 elected party members, something that is not going to happen before the next election, if then. As one seasoned NDP strategist put it this week: “Nobody is trying to defect to the NDP.”

However, if the House were to vote to give the NDP party status, that would allow its seven members to regain those privileges. Voting together, the Liberals and the NDP would have the votes to make that happen.

If the NDP regained party status it would get seats on Commons committees and co-operating with the governing party even in an informal arrangement would help the Liberals get their legislation passed.

If the Conservatives have stopped the bleeding and there are no further defections to the Liberals, don’t be surprised if there is suddenly a Commons vote to give the NDP party status. It would be unusual. But then 2026 is going to be an unusual year, just like the one that preceded it.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a past president of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.