By Don Newman

January 31, 2026

After the year Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had in 2025 — which started with victory in the air and within months turned to ashes — 2026 has begun on a high.

Friday night at the Conservative Party convention in Calgary, where a required leadership review was held to enable the removal of the party leader following an election loss, Poilievre was confirmed in his job by more than 87% of the delegates in attendance.

The fact that Poilievre cruised to his overwhelming victory at a convention wholly designed to maximize his chances does little to mitigate the immediate impact of the outcome.

The convention was held in Calgary, the heartland of the federal Conservative Party base, making it easier for Poilievre supporters to show up and vote. And, it was held on the same weekend as the Ontario the Progressive Conservative convention, keeping the Poilievre skeptics in the federal-provincial conservative Venn overlap away from Calgary.

In the end, it doesn’t really matter. The vote on the question, “Should Pierre Poilievre remain as leader of the Conservative Party?” was greeted with a resounding “Yes” at 87.4. That total will be recorded in the history books as higher than Conservative Party co-founder Stephen Harper’s 84% when he faced a similar vote 20 years ago.

Poilievre will now be able to look Prime Minister Mark Carney in the eye across the floor of the House of Commons, each knowing that the other is whom he will face in the next election. Whether that election is likely to happen this year should be known soon enough.

Lately, Ottawa has been swept with rumours that at least two members of Parliament elected as Conservatives last April are planning to follow the two floor crossers who defected to the Liberals last fall.

If that happens, the Liberals will have majority support in the House of Commons and control of House committees. That would enable the Carney government to enact its transformative economic agenda, though not without opposition.

Unless the public opinion polls show a sudden jump for Poilievre to close the personal approval gap he currently suffers with Carney, in the end not much will have changed.

Will those defections still happen, or will Poilievre’s impressive leadership confirmation vote give Conservative MPs pause?

There’s a difference between resounding and shocking. Given all the variables that went into that 87.4%, it may be slightly higher than some players had bet on, but since the magic number for Poilievre’s organization was anything notably higher than Harper’s 2005 number, the headline wasn’t stunning.

And it doesn’t solve Poilievre’s problem of the difference between the people who voted in Calgary and the people who’ll be voting in the next election, who may now feel more disconnected from a political party that has just solidified its support for a leader they don’t like.

Part of the reason the broader electorate has not warmed to Poilievre is that they identify him as a tactical populist with Donald Trump, the name that Poilievre failed to mention in his 45-minute speech Friday night but whose influence on the problems facing the country — from his trade war to his administration’s support for Alberta separatism — will likely define the next election.

In that speech, Poilievre walked the tightrope of echoing Trump’s populist rhetoric on affordability issues while eschewing his belligerence — in keeping with the kinder, gentler persona he’s been widely urged to adopt since the losses of last April.

But unless the public opinion polls show a sudden jump for Poilievre to close the personal approval gap he currently suffers with Carney, in the end not much will have changed.

And the MPs who’ve been considering bolting know that — it’s a factor that was confirmed last April 28th and has only intensified since then.

Still, it was a good weekend for the Conservatives and Poilievre. They ran a big, enthusiastic convention. And the party’s leadership is now settled, for better or worse.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a past president of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.