By Daniel Béland

February 3, 2026

Much has been written recently about the possibility of independence referendums in both Alberta and Quebec, a situation that has triggered legitimate worries about U.S. interference in the shadow of the Trump administration and its threats to the sovereignty of Canada and other allies such as Denmark/Greenland.

A referendum in Alberta later this year is a clear possibility.

In the case of Quebec, much will hinge of the results of the October 5th election. The Parti Québecois (PQ) pledges to hold a third independence referendum by 2030 if it forms a majority government this fall. At this writing, the PQ remains ahead in the polls, though eight months, as we all know, is several eternities in politics.

There is also an unusual situation likely to impact the electoral and partisan dynamics over the coming months: both the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government and the official opposition Liberal Party of Quebec (LPQ) are looking for new leaders.

For the CAQ, this is the case because Premier François Legault announced in mid-January he would be stepping down once a new CAQ leader is chosen this spring.

As for previous LPQ leader Pablo Rodriguez, who only served for six months, he resigned in mid-December amid a series of allegations about the previous leadership race and the launch of a related criminal investigation by UPAC, Quebec’s anti-corruption body.

In this context, a party in power since late 2018 and weakened by l’usure du pouvoir and an official opposition party trying to regain its footing after an unexpected leadership crisis are both looking for a fresh start and a new leader in the hope they can rapidly turn things around and improve their standing vis-à-vis the PQ.

Although both parties are looking for a reset, few people have put their names forward in each of these two pre-electoral leadership races.

Currently running for the leadership of the CAQ — its first leadership contest since its creation by Legault in 2011 — are two MNAs who, until they put their names forward, were cabinet ministers who once belonged to the PQ: Bernard Drainville and Christine Fréchette.

It’s hard to imagine a stronger contrast between two leadership candidates.

Drainville is a blunt and controversial figure who has been closely associated with identity politics since he tabled the infamous Quebec Charter of Values bill as a PQ minister back in 2013.

Fréchette is the clear front-runner in the race and if she wins, she could make the CAQ competitive again against both the PQ and the LPQ.

On the other hand, Fréchette is a more pragmatic and technocratic politician who strongly emphasizes economic issues. Thus far, she has received many more endorsements from CAQ cabinet members than Drainville and, according to a recent Léger poll, she is also clearly outperforming him in terms of potential electoral support.

Fréchette is the clear front-runner in the race and if she wins she could make the CAQ competitive again, against both the PQ and the LPQ. The name of the new leader will be announced at the CAQ convention on April 12, less than six months before the next provincial elections.

While there are only two candidates and a clear frontrunner in the CAQ leadership race, on the Liberal side, things are even simpler, as the only candidate, Charles Milliard, is heading towards a coronation.

Like Fréchette, Milliard focuses on the economy, something predictable considering that he is the former vice president of the pharmacy chain Uniprix and former CEO of the Quebec Federation of Chambers of Commerce.

In June, in the final ballot of the last LPQ leadership vote, Milliard finished fewer than five points behind Rodriguez.

Younger and much less politically experienced than his predecessor, Milliard also has lower name recognition than figures like Drainville, Fréchette, and PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.

In fact, according to the Léger poll mentioned above, two thirds of Quebecers do not know who he is. If Milliard becomes leader in the March 14 LPQ congress, he will have little time to introduce himself to Quebecers before the provincial campaign begins in late summer.

Although both the CAQ and the LPQ face key challenges moving forward, the good news for these two parties is that the third independence referendum that they oppose and that the PQ wants to organize if they win in October is a highly unpopular proposition among people in the province.

The problem for both the CAQ and the LPQ is that, in the context of Quebec’s highly fragmented political system, in which five parties currently poll above or close to 10 percent of support (PQ, LPQ, CAQ, Conservative Party of Quebec, and Québec Solidaire), the PQ could win with only 35% of popular support, not out of the question based on the apparent strength of their francophone base.

Having so many parties competing for votes does create a volatile electoral situation and a key task for the next leaders of both the CAQ and the LPQ is to coalesce around their parties the many Quebecers who oppose a third referendum.

If none of these two parties is successful at that, perhaps they could try coordinating their efforts on the ground to maximize the odds of defeating the PQ.

Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.