By Bob Rae

March 11, 2026

It has been less than two weeks since the joint US/Israeli bombing campaign on Iran began. It is past time to bring it to a quick conclusion.

Conflicting messages abound: “unconditional surrender” and “the war is very complete” from Donald Trump, and “not a single drop of oil will leave the region” from Iran.

There is now clear evidence, from the IAEA as well as both Israeli and US military sources, that there was no “imminent threat” of Iran developing a bomb that would justify military aggression of this kind, and equally clear that the negative consequences of a bombing campaign were vastly underestimated.

Steve Witkoff has said that Trump’s actions have stopped Iran from building 30 or 40 nuclear bombs “within a year”. There is no evidence to back up that statement.

He compounded the administration’s misinformation role within the larger misinformation ecosystem on Tuesday when he said U.S. officials “can take them at their word” when the Russians say they have not been sharing intelligence with Iran, ignoring the truth that Putin also presides over a lying machine for a government.

In his Davos speech, Prime Minister Carney described the world order as at a point of “rupture”. The Iran War is surely a case in point.

Countries like Donald Trump’s America, that reject rules of engagement, international law, humanitarian principles, and the rule of law in their own behaviour are no longer reliable partners or allies.

Nor are they effective strategic thinkers or strategic partners. The intervention in Venezuela is not easily duplicated or repeated. So-called “surgical strikes” have a way of becoming forever wars that never go well.

Oil prices up, markets down, a massive crisis of displacement; these will become a global crisis affecting food, water, agriculture, you name it. And, as the late Secretary of State Colin Powell correctly pointed out per his Pottery Barn rule for military interventions, “you break it, you own it”.

When countries turn inward and make the critical mistake of confusing short-term performance with the broader public interest, the consequences are disastrous.

We are witnessing this moment right now. President Trump’s press conferences are performances designed to calm markets and reassure partners, particularly the Gulf State countries that are being hit hard.

He promised to ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz — but Iran’s acquiescence is required to make that happen, and at this writing, three cargo ships have just been struck in the strait.

We have all learned something more — the cruelty behind the bluster. The phrase ‘It’s more fun to sink them’ will be linked forever to a president whose military is being told to ignore ‘stupid rules of engagement’ and the rule of law.

There is more than a whiff of TACO in the air when it comes to the array of erroneous and failed casus belli for this war that have emerged from the White House, but the bombing will continue until Trump says it won’t.

So, what are we left with? The war in Lebanon continues, as Netanyahu seems to be returning to the 1982 playbook. Iran’s military and nuclear assets have been set back, but Iranians were promised more than a generational swapping of Ayatollahs. Relationships of trust in the Gulf have been undermined.

Oil prices will come down substantially only when supplies flow, and that can’t happen unless the Strait of Hormuz is navigable. We don’t know how many mines have been placed in the strait.

Putin has been appeased, flattered and strengthened; Ukraine ignored, un-thanked, but resilient, and the credibility of the U.S. continues to erode.

China awaits the arrival of an American president at the end of the month who is erratic and ill-informed but cannot be dismissed or underestimated.

Europe, Canada, the UK, Japan and Australia — the middle powers whose agency and clear voices the world is waiting to hear, are still not yet fully prepared to take on new roles. Hesitancy and mixed messages abound because it’s easier to talk about unwinding the hegemonic order than it is to actually do it.

But those efforts must continue. The meaning of rupture and the steps that need to follow must sink in. We don’t have the luxury of time.

We have all learned something more — the cruelty behind the bluster. The phrase “It’s more fun to sink” Iranian ships will be linked forever to a president whose military is being told to ignore “stupid rules of engagement” and the rule of law.

No one has yet to come forward to take responsibility for the bombing of a girls’ school in the middle of the night. President Trump has said “it could have been anybody”.  This is untrue. Only countries with a Tomahawk could have done it.

Truth is always a casualty of war.  But we all need to be more prepared to pursue the facts, no matter how inconvenient they may be.

For Canada, the truth is difficult. The President of our largest trading partner, our NATO and NORAD ally, has repeatedly made it clear he thinks we should be fully annexed and become “the 51st state”.  He thinks we’re Belarus, a neighbour for the taking.

He has surrounded himself with advisors who tell him what he wants to hear, who amplify his ambitions, and who indulge and accommodate the corruption that envelops his government.

We are in one of those situations where any path chosen comes with costs. But it starts with a credible path to a ceasefire, sooner rather than later. Real diplomacy will have to be restored and put to work, both privately and publicly.

It’s common in such circumstances to deploy a Winston Churchill quote. Let me close with this one:

“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”

Policy Columnist Bob Rae teaches and writes on law and public policy. He is the Visitor of Massey College, a Distinguished Fellow at the Munk School at the University of Toronto, as well as a Senior Fellow at the Forum of Federations and a Matthews Fellow in public policy at Queen’s University. He served as Ontario’s 21st Premier, interim leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, and Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations.