By Maria Popova

March 26, 2026

Even four years into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale military assault against Ukraine, despite Russia’s obvious and complete failure to achieve any of its explicit war objectives, the tendency to underestimate Ukrainian power and overestimate Russian capabilities is still common.

When Putin launched his attack in February 2022, Western policymakers, journalists, and scholars alike assumed that Ukrainian defense would be tragic and short-lived. Instead, Ukraine quickly stopped Russia’s march on Kyiv and denied Putin’s objective of ending Ukrainian independence in a matter of days.

When the battle turned into a long war of attrition concentrated in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, many warned Ukraine would slowly succumb to Russia’s overwhelming military and human resources. Instead, Ukraine managed to grind Russia’s advances to a near halt, decisively thwarting Moscow’s limited strategic goals of conquering Donbas while inflicting over a million casualties on the aggressor.

When Donald Trump’s election victory was imminent, many assumed an end to American aid would lead to Ukraine’s swift capitulation. Trump delivered on his campaign promise to end aid and started a relentless coercion campaign to impose Russian demands on Ukraine under the guise of diplomacy.

Instead of buckling under American pressure, Ukraine not only stands free, its government officials deftly navigating Trump’s sullen campaign of harassment, but the Ukrainian army is making slow gains on the Southern front.

Most recently, Trump’s war of choice in Iran has triggered predictions that the economic and diplomatic benefits from the war in the Middle East will help Russia finally secure victory in Ukraine.

Trump’s attack on Iran has led to a sharp increase in oil prices while a long-term plunge in energy supplies looms large. The price spike has led to increased profits for Russia, compounded by the unilateral easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, which the Trump administration justifies with the need to soften the shock to energy markets.

As the U.S. shifts diplomatic focus to the Middle East, Trump is upping the pressure on Ukraine to agree to whatever Russia demands and administration officials have tried to claim the U.S. Russia policy aims to lure the Russian regime away from its current cooperation with China and into a friendlier relationship with the U.S. However, given both the high implausibility of putting a wedge between Russia and China, it is more likely that Trump is simply serving Russia’s interests by pressuring Ukraine.

To squeeze Ukraine and help the U.S. war effort in the Middle East, the Trump administration is signalling plans to divert $750  million USD in European and Canadian funds already committed through NATO’s PURL program to purchase American weapons for Ukraine to instead restock the American military.

The Trump administration’s betrayal of Ukraine and its NATO allies and support for Russia’s war effort is becoming more blatant and brazen every day.

Perhaps most importantly, Ukraine’s domestic drone and missile production now allows the Ukrainian army to launch increasingly effective attacks on Russia’s oil industry—the very heart of Russia’s war economy.

Still, this is no time to underestimate Ukraine and prematurely mourn its downfall. Ukraine’s diplomats continue working hard to maintain a cordial relationship with the Trump administration despite all the insults and betrayals. But Ukraine’s government and its people are not naïve, and they know that the survival of their state is above all in their own hands.

The war in the Middle East has brought into sharp relief the dynamism and success of Ukraine’s domestic military industry.

Ukrainian innovation in drone production has given an edge to Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainians have developed interceptor drones that successfully destroy the Iranian-designed, Russia-produced Shahed drones that constantly target Ukrainian cities.

As Iran retaliated against the U.S.-Israel attack by targeting cities across the Gulf with Shahed drones, Ukrainian know-how and technology are suddenly in demand and may bring Ukraine not only financial gain but diplomatic support from new allies in the Gulf.

On Thursday, President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Saudi Arabia for meetings to discuss cooperation on drone production and missile defense.

On the Ukraine-Russia frontline, casualty figures now reveal a strongly lopsided ratio in favor of Ukraine. Over the winter months, the Russian army lost soldiers to the tune of 25-35,000 a month in suicidal attempts to break through the kilometers-wide “kill zone” created by Ukrainian drone operators along the contact line.

In February, Ukraine’s brand-new defense minister, Mikhailo Fedorov, a “tech prodigy” who made his name in digital marketing and military tech and headed the highly successful Ministry of Digital Transformation before moving to Defense, managed to convince SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk, to take steps to cut off Russian forces’ access to Starlink. The results are starting to show on the frontline with incremental Ukrainian advances.

Perhaps most importantly, Ukraine’s domestic drone and missile production now allows the Ukrainian army to launch increasingly effective attacks on Russia’s oil industry—the very heart of Russia’s war economy.

Trump may have eased economic sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, but Ukraine has stepped in and imposed its own military-enforced and much more punishing sanctions. A series of coordinated Ukrainian drone strikes and strategic disruptions successfully halted approximately 40% of Russia’s oil exports from both Baltic and Black Sea ports—roughly two million barrels per day.

The fact that these recent successes largely stem from Ukrainian agency and developed domestic capability mean that the Trump administration has limited leverage on Ukraine.

Its efforts to force Ukraine into a deal that is convenient and beneficial to Russia and an America whose loyalties have changed may turn out to be futile.

Meanwhile, the message for Washington is clear: never underestimate Ukraine.

Policy Columnist Maria Popova is the Hiram Mills Associate Professor of Political Science at McGill University and Co-Director of the Jean Monnet Centre Montreal. With Oxana Shevel, she recently published a book titled Russia and Ukraine: Entangled Histories, Diverging States.