By Maria Popova

May 13, 2026

For years, the narrative of the war in Ukraine was one of underdog survival, defined by Kyiv’s pleas for Western aid and a broad assumption of predestined Russian victory.

But in 2026, the script has flipped. We are no longer watching a Ukrainian nation clinging to its sovereignty against all odds. We are now watching a Vladimir Putin increasingly desperate, and a Volodymyr Zelensky rapidly transforming from freedom fighter to statesman.

We are seeing the Ukrainian army gain momentum and reverse Russian gains. We are seeing Ukrainian drones seriously damage Russia’s oil industry and pipeline infrastructure.

Above all, we are witnessing president Volodymyr Zelensky’s growing stature in a shifting geopolitical orbit. Zelensky is now positioning Ukraine not just as a security imperative but as a security provider to Europe and a valuable partner to Middle Eastern states caught in the crossfire of the US-Israel war against Iran.

While, this week, Putin is doubling down on villainy with a major drone attack and tests of a new intercontinental ballistic missile just days after claiming that the fighting in Ukraine is close to ending, Zelensky’s soft-power value as the hero Russia failed to conquer only increases every time the threat to the wider world from the Kremlin escalates.

The shift is visible in Zelensky’s increasingly assertive posture toward Washington. In April, he criticized Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as “disrespectful” for never making a trip to Kyiv after numerous trips to Moscow.

Calling out the Trump administration’s one-sided diplomacy in this way is a sign that Ukraine is stronger and increasingly self-reliant and calculates that its survival no longer depends on the American administration’s good will and assistance.

At the heart of this newfound autonomy is a fresh, realist theory of victory, anchored in material power and grounded in Ukraine’s domestic innovation. Ukraine has rapidly developed its drone sector, transforming from MacGyver-ish battlefield modifications into a high-tech industry that is currently inflicting asymmetric, ruinous losses on Russian forces.

According to Ukrainian estimates, Russia loses on average 1000 soldiers per day, which means that Russia loses more men than it can recruit. This isn’t just about defence. These numbers increasingly allow Ukraine to dictate the terms of the frontline. For the first time in this conflict, Russia is visibly losing ground, its traditional numerical advantage neutralized by swarms of intelligent, low-cost, precision weapons.

The impact on the Kremlin became visible during the lead-up to the recent Victory Day festivities. In a clear reversal of his usual bravado, Putin was forced to reach out to Donald Trump, pleading for him to use his influence to secure a ceasefire from Zelensky and even offering a carrot in the form of an equal 1000-to-1000 POW exchange.

Putin’s goal was humiliatingly pragmatic. He needed to protect the Moscow parade, which is a linchpin of the Kremlin’s ideological construction of Russian invincibility, from the very real threat of Ukrainian drones.

Also telling was the rhetorical retreat. The tyrant who once sneered about “the gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis in Kyiv” is suddenly referring to his counterpart as “Mr. Zelensky.” This isn’t a sudden onset of manners; it is a subtle admission of parity through gritted teeth.

We are now watching a Vladimir Putin increasingly desperate, and a Volodymyr Zelensky rapidly transforming from freedom fighter to statesman.

In this shifting landscape, Canada has a unique and vital role to play in strengthening Ukraine’s position and enabling its eventual victory over Russia. Like Ukraine, Canada is a natural ally and partner to the European Union, united by shared values of democracy, rule of law, and a commitment to sovereignty.

The recently announced drone deal that is in the works between Ukraine and Canada would be more than a commercial agreement; it is a geopolitical statement. By partnering with Ukraine’s advanced drone industry, Canada will not be sending aid but will lay the foundation of a high-stakes security partnership that bolsters the technical edge of the democratic world.

The drone partnership is likely to leverage and build on Canada’s participation in the EU’s SAFE (Security Action for Europe) program. By integrating through this procurement framework, the drone technology co-developed by Canada and Ukraine will be interoperable with European defence standards, embedding Canadian-Ukrainian innovation into European military architecture.

In addition, Canada has become the first non-EU nation to sign onto the Council of Europe convention establishing an International Claims Commission for Ukraine. Ottawa thus takes part in securing the legal architecture for Russian reparations to Ukraine, a move that reinforces the Canada-EU unified front dedicated to long-term accountability and the rule of law.

Finally, Mark Carney’s recent trip to Yerevan, Armenia, for the summit of the European Political Community (EPC) illustrates the increasing cooperation among Ukraine, Canada, and the EU.

Originally conceived by French President Emmanuel Macron, the EPC was initially met with skepticism by Ukraine and other EU candidates who feared it would serve as a mere consolation prize for nations on the EU’s periphery, offering symbolic inclusion without the benefits of full membership.

However, with Canada’s active participation, the forum is evolving into a strategic vehicle for a tightening circle of allies that transcends the traditional boundaries of the European Union. While Ukraine navigates the formal process of EU accession, the EPC provides a vital platform to integrate more deeply with non-EU partners like the UK, Canada, Norway, and Turkey.

This alignment could become a practical stepping stone toward Zelensky’s own vision of a more autonomous security architecture — potentially even a future European army — composed of democratic partners committed to the continent’s long-term defence.

The Canada-Ukraine partnership is a core element of the Canada-EU relationship. By aligning closely with Kyiv to bolster European security and contain Russia, Canada is not only protecting its own national interest but is also positioning itself as a key pillar of the coalition on the right side of history.

In line with Carney’s Davos speech, which resonated so widely, a middle power like Canada and an emerging power like Ukraine are working together to build a new, more resilient security architecture for Europe.

As Ukraine becomes the shield of the West, the message to the Kremlin is clear: the era of partitioning Europe into spheres of dominance and forced buffer zones is coming to a decisive end.

The future of Europe is being written by the democracies united in the European Union, and also by Kyiv and Ottawa, who together can counter Russia’s imperialist aggression.

Policy Columnist Maria Popova is the Hiram Mills Associate Professor of Political Science at McGill University and Co-Director of the Jean Monnet Centre Montreal. With Oxana Shevel, she recently published a book titled Russia and Ukraine: Entangled Histories, Diverging States.