By Bruce Anderson

May 19, 2026

In our latest Spark Insights nationwide survey (3450 cases, online, May 10-14) we found Carney government approval at 67%, similar to our results in April. A majority in every part of the country indicates approval, the lowest level being 61% in Alberta, and the highest in Quebec at 73%.

About one third of Conservative voters approve of the current government, as do at least two thirds of NDP and BQ voters.

If there were an election now, 63% would prefer to see the reelection of the Carney government, compared to 37% who would prefer a Poilievre win. In Alberta, 52% would prefer a Carney victory.

Each month we measure 22 areas of government performance. On 20 of the 22 items at least two thirds offered good or acceptable ratings. Best results include for investment in military, diversifying trade relations, attracting new investment and strengthening Canada’s image in the world. The only items where “good/acceptable” ratings dropped below two thirds were for housing affordability (60%) and “cost of living” (60%).

Perceptions of Carney and Poilievre are steady, with 62% expressing a positive feeling about Carney and 41% feeling that way about Poilievre.

How people feel about Carney has rather little to do with demographics (age, gender, income, education, etc). Disapproval is mostly concentrated on the right of the spectrum and within that group, those who like Donald Trump. Only 16% of Canadians have a positive feeling about the US President. But those on the right are almost four times more likely have a positive impression of Trump, than those on the centre.

We regularly ask Canadians to assess what impact Trump will have in serving the interests of Americans. Across the country, 80% think “Trump is harming the interests and prospects of Americans and turning the world against America”, while 20% think “Trump is bending the world to his will and will end up creating good outcomes for Americans”.

Those on the right are more than twice as likely (38%) as those on the centre (15%) to think Trump will deliver good outcomes for Americans.

The impact of Trump on the world combined with the approach and focus of Carney have essentially restructured the political agenda and priority list for Canadians, at least for the vast majority of those on the centre and left and for many of those on the right.

If there’s a sharp dividing line in Canadian politics today, it’s the difference between northern MAGA voters and the large majority who have an intense dislike of the US President.

Two years ago, most people wouldn’t have predicted that we would to be dealing with the global circumstances we see now, but Canadians have recognized that the times are different.

For opposition parties, the message in these numbers is that there’s little point in trying to reminisce about an agenda that seemed well suited to the times three years ago — people want a map of where we need to go, not a rear view mirror.

And for the Conservatives, the pro-Trump third of their coalition remains a huge barrier to competitiveness among mainstream voters.

Policy Contributor Bruce Anderson is Founding Partner and Chief Strategy Officer of Spark Advocacy. He has been a pollster, strategy and communications advisor for more than 40 years and is a regular on The Bridge podcasts. He was an active supporter of Mark Carney during the Liberal leadership campaign and federal election.