By Lori Turnbull

July 16, 2026

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is a fighter. She has made a political career as a fierce, passionate, and loyal defender of her province, arguing for its self-determination and autonomy.

In her own words, she wants “Alberta sovereignty within a united Canada.” She is effective at channelling the frustrations of alienated Westerners in the province (and elsewhere, for that matter) who feel that the West has always gotten a raw deal from Canada.

But in addition to being a fighter for Alberta, Smith is also a federalist. The success of her political strategy relies on her ability to walk this line – and blur it when necessary.

Sometimes it’s difficult to know where Smith really stands on Alberta’s place in — and relationship with — Canada, because she’s essentially trying to have it both ways. Her political rhetoric is deliberately contradictory so that she can appeal to different camps simultaneously and avoid being pinned down. People can hear what they want to hear.

But when the tension becomes too difficult to manage, or when she’s called out in the media because nobody really knows what “Alberta sovereignty within a united Canada” means, she tends to cop out by making an appeal to direct democracy.

When irreconcilable differences arise, rather than broker them herself or take a clear stance, her solution is to put it to a vote and let Albertans decide.

This is not democratic heroism or power for the people. It’s an abdication of leadership. And the consequences of her cop-outs are now about to catch up to her when Albertans vote on 10 referendum questions on October 19th.

After spending years in the premier’s office courting separatist support through measures like the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act, she’s taken her gambit to a new level by going so far as to put the question of separation on a ballot (albeit in watered-down form).

But in doing so, she’s putting herself and her political balancing act to the test.

The stage was set for the October referendum back in February, when Premier Smith took to the airwaves to explain how her government planned to protect Alberta’s prosperity in a shifting geopolitical context. She noted the falling price of oil and the consequential loss in revenue for Alberta.

She was quick to blame  federal immigration policy for putting too much strain on Alberta’s social systems and programs, including health and education, and for contributing to budgetary problems.

The October referendum questions are not binding, which makes this more of an opinion-gathering exercise than anything else.

Having set this context, Smith went on to explain that Albertans would be given the opportunity to weigh in on these matters in the form of a referendum in October. She read aloud nine questions related to constitutional matters, including Senate abolition, and immigration policy.

For example, Albertans will be asked whether they support more provincial control over immigration as well as a restriction on access to provincial services, including health and education, to citizens, permanent residents, and people with “Alberta-approved immigration status.”

The question on separation was not yet part of the package. But in May, Stay Free Alberta lost its bid to launch its own question on separation through the Citizen Initiative Act when a judge ruled the group failed to conduct adequate consultations with First Nations.

This put Premier Smith in a jam due to the significant overlap in the Venn diagram between the separatist movement in Alberta and her United Conservative Party. But the overlap is not perfect: there are federalists in the UCP too whose support she needs ahead of next year’s election.

To save her own political hide, and in keeping with her tendency to use direct democracy to get out from between a rock and a hard place, Smith put her own version of a separation question on the list for the October vote.

Unfortunately for Danielle Smith, it seems that no one is happy.

The federalists are upset that she seems to have caved to the demands of the separatists, while Stay Free Alberta and its supporters are disappointed in the weak-kneed wording of the question on the possibility of separation. (It’s basically a referendum on whether to engage a process that could lead to separation. Not exactly a call to action.)

As of June, Smith’s approval rating had sunk to an all-time low of 39%, with 56% disapproving of her performance.

The separation question, as flimsy as it is, has managed to suck the air out of the room to the point that the Premier seems to be evading responsibility for teeing up a misguided and divisive vote on immigration policy.

But to top it all off, the October referendum questions are not binding, which makes this more of an opinion-gathering exercise than anything else.

Presumably, the premier will shape a narrative around whatever data are gathered in an attempt to pressure Ottawa for more autonomy. But even if this doesn’t bear fruit in the form of a change in governance or policy, it lets Danielle Smith continue as both a fighter and a federalist — that is, if Albertans let her.

Dr. Lori Turnbull is a professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.