By Daniel Béland

September 1, 2026

Out of the three by-elections held Monday, the Liberals were widely expected to keep the ridings of North Vancouver-Capilano (British Columbia) and Beaches-East York (Ontario), which they did.

At first glance, the decisive victory of the Liberal candidate in the formerly Conservative riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, dairy farmer Daniel Gobeil, might appear surprising.

The Liberals increased their vote share in the riding compared to last year’s general election from 31 to 52 per cent, and the Conservatives dropped from 34 to 12 percent, while the Bloc increased from 31 to 33 per cent.

When we understand what has happened locally and nationally over the last couple of months, however, it is easier to make sense of Monday’s impressive Liberal victory in the riding, which is located in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, a region of Quebec known as a nationalist bastion.

When Mark Carney decided to appoint Chicoutimi-Le Fjord Conservative MP Richard Martel to the Senate in early July, he knew exactly what he was doing: triggering a by-election in a riding in which, at the 2025 general election, the popular local Conservative MP had only secured 34 per cent of the votes, ahead of the Bloc and the Liberal candidates, who each secured 31 percent of the votes.

Considering Carney’s enduring popularity in Quebec, it was winnable, even if the Bloc put up a fight. Both parties knew that Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is a riding each of the major federal parties had won at least once since 2000: the Liberals in 2000 and 2015, the Bloc in 2004 and 2008, the NDP in 2011, and the Conservatives in 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2025.

While Martel won four elections in a row, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord had not become a true Conservative stronghold, something suggested by his narrow victory in last year’s general election. When Carney decided to appoint Martel to the Senate, he knew that, without their popular MP, the Conservatives could lose that seat, especially because Pierre Poilievre remains so unpopular in Quebec, in sharp contrast to the prime minister.

To help things out, the Liberals nominated a strong and respected local candidate, Daniel Gobeil, who owns and operates the Ferme du Fjord in La Baie, which is located in the riding. The former chair of Les Producteurs de lait du Québec and of Les Producteurs de lait du Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Gobeil was a strategically wise choice in a riding in which agriculture remains a key industry, in a province where its professional advocates are pillars of rural communities.

Carney’s popularity and the support for his defiance of Trump favoured the Liberal candidate, who also happened to be a dairy farmer who knew something about imperilled supply management.

His public profile was also significantly higher than that of his two main competitions: Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé, the former constituency office director for Jonquière Bloc MP Mario Simard, and Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault, a retired attorney and Cégep teacher.

Yet, while having the candidate with the highest public profile and strongest local credentials certainly helped the Liberals win last night, the wide margin by which Gobeil won can only be explained by broader political forces related to both Carney’s popularity in Quebec and, more specifically, the anxieties stemming from Donald Trump’s trade war.

A large majority of Quebeckers supported Carney’s decision to pull the plug on the trade negotiations with the Trump administration on August 21st.

Ten days later, the by-election in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord became a barometer of those larger forces in a region that has been hit especially hard by U.S. tariffs, with aluminium and forestry among its largest industries.

So, the trade war dominated the campaign, and Carney’s popularity and the support for his defiance of Trump favoured the Liberal candidate, who also happened to be a dairy farmer who knew something about imperilled supply management.

By winning all three by-elections, the Liberals will retain their slight majority in the House of Commons by one seat.

As for the Conservatives, their poor showing in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord last night will further erode confidence in the beleaguered leadership of Pierre Poilievre, who is particularly unpopular in Quebec but also trails far behind Carney nationally in favourability.

The outcome in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is especially bitter for the Bloc Québécois, which had put so much effort into the race, leading Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet to quip to journalists on Election Day-morning that he had “spent more time in Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean” than at his own place this summer.

The results in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord can also be read as a potentially ominous sign for the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the context of the provincial campaign ahead of the October 5th election.

Premier Christine Fréchette has taken a page from Carney’s playbook by being tough on Trump, which has made her more competitive with the front-running PQ, including in today’s Leger poll, which shows her pulling away from the provincial Liberals for second place after the horse-race numbers of last week’s Synopsis/La Presse poll had her neck-and-neck with the PQ at 27-28.

And considering the strong opposition to an independence referendum, whether — per PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s recent vow — it is held after Donald Trump leaves office or not, the results in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord will be seized upon as a bellwether for voter sentiment in the province by both Fréchette, and by Liberal Leader Charles Milliard.

A fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.