By Fen Osler Hampson

October 13, 2026

It didn’t take long for Elon Musk, one of President Donald Trump’s attack dogs, to stick his unwelcome nose into Canada’s domestic political drama.

Shortly after the Parti Québécois’s election victory on October 5th, he endorsed Quebec independence and, to pour more gasoline on the fire, said Alberta and Saskatchewan should leave Canada too.

Musk, who has Canadian roots, studied at Queen’s University and remains a Canadian citizen, should know that most Canadians — including in Alberta and Quebec, where majorities wish to remain in Canada — won’t take kindly to his needling and that, for separatists, his endorsement is more a curse than a blessing.

But his intervention points to a bigger problem in Canada’s relations with the United States, as the Alberta referendum looms and the prospect of another Quebec referendum — promised for after Trump leaves office, if he does indeed give up the presidency when his term ends — occurs.

It is now open season for American meddlers in Canadian domestic politics, and we should expect more of the same from White House officials, including the president himself.

Some of that interference may come in the form of presidential postings on Truth Social, White House-sponsored bots and surreptitious support for those who want to tear Canada apart. A president who has made no secret of wanting Canada to become America’s 51st state will do everything he can to weaken Canadian Confederation.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe was right to push back and call Musk out. Canada’s other provincial and federal leaders should do the same — not with Doug Ford-like hysteria, but in careful, measured language that tells Trump and his Praetorian Guard that we know what they are up to.

But it is not just the Americans who will stoke separatist fires. The Russians will do so as well, and so too may the Chinese and other authoritarian regimes who have the world’s democracies in their line of fire.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, however, has a much bigger problem. Even though he secured only a minority, Quebec’s premier-designate, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has made it clear he will not be as accommodating a partner as his predecessor.

It is not just the Americans who will stoke separatist fires. The Russians will do so as well, and so too may the Chinese and other authoritarian regimes who have the world’s democracies in their line of fire.

Trouble will start as soon as the new government is sworn in on October 15th, and its members refuse to swear allegiance to the King. Will they allow Quebec’s lieutenant governor to deliver the new government’s speech from the throne? I wouldn’t bet on it, given that they want to abolish the post.

And what other fights will Quebec pick with Ottawa, such as on immigration, federal transfers and trade policy, especially if Trump forces Ottawa in trade talks to adjust Canada’s dairy quota allocations in favour of American producers? St-Pierre Plamondon has also vowed to withdraw Quebec from the Alto high-speed rail corridor between Toronto and Quebec City, another priority for the Carney government.

He has also said he will look closely at the Churchill Falls deal with Newfoundland and Labrador before bringing it to the National Assembly.

There will also be trouble over broader efforts to lower interprovincial trade barriers, where Quebec’s restrictions on labour mobility and public procurement will continue to pose a problem—even more so under a péquiste government.

St-Pierre Plamondon has every incentive to push every red button to convince Quebecers that they would be better off as an independent nation rather than as part of the Canadian Confederation.

But what he fails to realize is that America, with or without Trump, is a changed nation. There will be little appetite to do Canada — or a separate Quebec — any favours when it comes to eliminating tariffs on Canadian goods, especially manufactured goods, where American companies compete with ours. History shows that Democrats are just as protectionist as Republicans, even if they present a kinder face when dealing with Canada.

Quebec needs the rest of Canada to do business in an increasingly tariffed world. It also needs Ottawa and Mark Carney to help sell its products in global markets.

The costs of separation in a protectionist world would also be exorbitant. St-Pierre Plamondon would be well-advised to read the independent report by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy on the costs of separation.

It was commissioned by the Alberta government, and it found that even Canada’s wealthiest province on a per-capita basis would pay a heavy price for striking out on its own, which includes the costs of looking after its own defence and policing its own borders.

The lesson is clear: do your sums before you get referendum-trigger-happy.

Policy Contributing Writer Fen Osler Hampson, FRSC, is the Chancellor’s Professor and Professor of International Affairs at Carleton University, and president of the World Refugee & Migration Council. He is co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-US Relations.