By Daniel Béland

November 4, 2026

In a massive electoral wave that some commentators are calling a “blue tsunami,” Democrats won big last night in the midterm elections and, starting in January, will control both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

It is common for the party that controls the White House to lose seats at the midterms but yesterday’s results are an overwhelming indictment of the Trump administration: at this writing, the Democrats have a 50-seat majority in the House and have gained seven seats in the Senate for a 54-44 majority, with Alaska and Mississippi still being counted.

While concerns about corruption and democratic backsliding hurt Republicans last night, affordability and cost-of-living issues dominated the midterms campaign. Right now in the United States, these issues are closely related to foreign policy, as the negative impact of the Iran war on gas prices and of U.S. tariffs on inflation are perceived as avoidable problems of competence and judgment created by the Trump White House.

As far as tariffs are concerned, Canada came up regularly during the midterms and some Republican candidates distanced themselves from Trump on the issue. This is not surprising given that President Trump’s tariffs against Canada are highly unpopular in both countries.

Although we shouldn’t overestimate the impact of this opposition to the tariffs against Canada, it did play a role as part of the broader backlash against Trump policies perceived as inflationary.

Regardless of how much tariffs against Canada hurt the Republicans last night, the Democrats taking control of both the House and the Senate is good news for Canada. The Trump administration will now face much more scrutiny from the legislative branch. In that sense, these results restore some of the checks and balances that have been absent in his second presidency.

At the same time, we should not overestimate the impact of the midterms on the capacity of the Trump White House to keep hurting Canada and many other countries through its reckless foreign and trade policies.

The president remains by far the most powerful foreign policy actor in the United States and President Trump is likely to keep using executive orders in a forceful and systematic manner, including and especially regarding tariff policies. Here, it is the courts rather than the new Democratic-controlled Congress that could play the greatest role in pushing back against unlawful moves on the part of the executive branch.

Now that the midterms are over, the 2028 presidential campaign has unofficially begun, and it will prove crucial both for the future of U.S. democracy and Canada-U.S. relations. Trump and his administration have done much to weaken both, so the outcome of the next presidential election will prove crucial in these two areas.

As for the new Congress, starting in January, it is likely to focus on helping people cope with the rising cost of living while launching inquiries into the apparent corruption of the Trump White House. But President Trump will still be able to successfully veto legislation, something he bragged about on social media.

To paraphrase Adrienne Arsenault during CBC’s election night coverage, President Trump will be a lame duck, but one who can bite (and also quack, which promises no respite in his daily propaganda output).

In fact, there is a sense that, as a lame Duck who can still bite, President Trump could be particularly aggressive and respond very negatively to growing challenges from both the legislative branch and the judicial branch. The U.S. president is highly mercurial to say the least, and unpredictability has been both his political brand and a tactical trademark. As a lame duck president, Trump could still bite hard, domestically but also internationally.

Towards the end of the midterms campaign, Prime Minister Mark Carney sounded optimistic about a potential trade deal between Canada and the United States happening within the next few weeks. Will the midterm results and Trump’s drastically reduced domestic political capital serve as leverage at the negotiation table? We will know when we know.

Meanwhile, now that the midterms are over, the 2028 presidential campaign has unofficially begun, and it will prove crucial both for the future of U.S. democracy and Canada-U.S. relations.

President Trump and his administration have done much to weaken both, so the outcome of the next presidential election will prove crucial in these two areas.

The fact that the Democrats will soon take control of Congress and fill about three quarters of the gubernatorial positions in the states is encouraging for them and for Canada but they should remember they won big more because of the unpopularity of President Trump than because they are inherently popular, something they will need to work on by developing an economic and social policy platform that many voters can find attractive.

Moving forward, Democrats should focus on affordability, and tariffs are certainly party of that equation, keeping in mind that protectionism is not the sole purview of Republicans.

It is way too early to know who the next Democratic and Republican presidential nominees will be but we will soon have to monitor what presidential hopefuls on both sides of the partisan divide are saying about democracy, foreign policy, and trade policy.

What the second Trump administration is showing is that a rogue president can target Canada with aggressive rhetoric and trade policies that threaten our economy and our sovereignty.

Will the MAGA movement survive the end of the Trump era? Will the next president support and seek to reinforce democratic institutions? Finally, will they entirely repudiate the Trump-era trade war?

Only time will tell, but Canadians should not take anything for granted, despite Tuesday’s blue tsunami.

A fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Policy Columnist Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.