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By Filipa Jorge, Kevin Nealer, and Fritz Lodge

November 5, 2026

The midterm elections sent shockwaves across the US and abroad, as Democrats outperformed even their most confident expectations and achieved the majority in both chambers of Congress. When lawmakers are sworn in January 3, 2027, Democrats will hold at least 54 Senate seats and 240 House seats.

State and local races also matter. Democratic victories broke the majority that Republicans have held in state houses and governorships since 2010, and likely will result in more immediate domestic policy shifts, including delaying data centers and clawing back GOP policies that reduced health care support, restricted reproductive choice, and supported aggressive federal immigration enforcement.

But this president always does better on the attack than in defending his own policies.

Expect Donald Trump to seek to redefine “lame duck” and leverage his Article II powers to maintain control of the news cycle with the power of the presidential pen, in both vetoing and executive orders, including to reprogram monies already allocated.

The challenge for Democrats will be to demonstrate progress on an affirmative agenda focused on core voter issues such as affordability and healthcare despite a presidential veto that Trump will wield against nearly all Democratic legislation.

The Blue Wave will also impact US foreign policy. While Trump acts to assert his authority and claim foreign policy successes, Democrats will increase their oversight and work to claw back protectionist policies and rebuild alliances.

Meanwhile, international partners and rivals alike will watch and adjust their posture.

• Trade with Canada will be in focus: Both Trump and Prime Minister Carney recently hinted that trade negotiations have intensified and a deal could happen soon (though Carney maintains no deal is better than a bad deal). The unpopularity of tariffs against Canada (which only 26% of Americans support) played significantly into Republican losses in several states. Pressure from within the Republican party, as well as from Democrats in Congress, to resolve the trade dispute with Canada is likely to rise. A truce with Canada would send positive signals toward progress on USMCA talks.
• Middle Powers will be more willing to stand their ground: Foreign leaders will reassess their “eat me last” coping strategies with Trump. Expect more pushback on tariffs, investment demands, and other imperious US policies that previously were met with accommodation. The Carney resistance playbook will look more attractive to the EU, Japan, South Korea, and others; among other adaptations, these countries have been considering paths forward that place less emphasis on relying on the US for their defense. Congressional action opposing tariffs — while not veto-proof — may strengthen that instinct. The trend to establish new alliances, build capabilities, and diversify from the US will continue, though the midterms revive hope in some capitals that a more conventional “alliance-focused” administration could succeed Trump.
• US rivals take advantage of Trump weakness: China will interpret the election results as validating its view that Trump is playing a weak hand and America is in decline; it will see Trump as anxious for foreign policy wins, which could translate into trade concessions and investment opportunities. (In meetings last week in Beijing with those preparing Xi for the two upcoming Trump summits, Chinese officials projected confidence and appreciated Xi has a stronger hand and needs nothing but stability from Trump. That instinct will be magnified by the midterm results.) Similarly, Russia will continue dangling peace talks (likely to fail) to extract concessions on sanctions and business deals. Putin may feel emboldened to escalate gray warfare as Trump’s commitment to NATO remains in doubt.
• Trump target on Ukraine may grow: Blame-spreading is one of the most predictable Trump gambits. In addition to attacking feckless GOP candidates, Trump will reliably re-target President Volodymyr Zelensky. Putin will look to pressure Trump toward more fully abandoning Ukraine (e.g., limiting intel-sharing and Starlink access). We expect bipartisan Congressional pushback on Trump’s relaxation of sanctions against Russia (e.g., oversight hearings about sanctions enforcement and US export controls) and efforts to both reassure allies and block US troop withdrawals from Europe. Watch for Putin’s potential attendance at the December G20 summit in Miami as a locus for Democratic attacks.
• Iran may come out on top: The paucity of military options and Trump’s fatigue with the war are more likely to encourage more diplomatic efforts in talks (note that Qatari-mediated talks are continuing) than a resumption of significant military action that will not be decisive. Trump’s announcement of reduced aid to Israel is likely to be bookended with Pentagon statements of a cutback in US forward presence in the Middle East, including limited rebuilding of badly damaged US bases. That could come soon, as Trump seeks to change the narrative following these historic losses.
• Trump will double-down on the Donroe doctrine: Expect Trump to refocus more heavily on projecting force in Latin America where several recently elected leaders are ideologically aligned with him and willing to give the US more leeway in security (e.g., Shield of the Americas) and economic partnerships. Democrats will seek to increase oversight over business deals in Venezuela (as well as call for a democratic transition) and to limit Trump options for a military intervention in Cuba.

As Republicans up and down the ticket concede (in a positive sign for the democratic process), the blame game within the party has begun. After asserting that he was “on the ballot” dozens of times in the weeks ahead of November 3^rd, Trump attempted to reverse course and distance himself from the results. But there is no denying the midterms were a referendum on his performance and that Americans showcased their fatigue with the instability, chaos and cost of Trumpism.

Donald Trump has emerged from the midterms diminished in the US and abroad, but with his executive foreign policy authorities intact. That will likely increase uncertainty and prompt greater determination by the White House to project dominance in the sphere where he has the greatest freedom of action.

Policy Contributing Writer Filipa Jorge is a principal at The Scowcroft Group, where she provides strategic risk advisory services on issues including Latin America, Europe, and BRICS+. 

Policy Contributing Writer Kevin Nealer is a principal of The Scowcroft Group, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board.

Policy Contributing Writer Fritz Lodge is a principal at The Scowcroft Group, where he provides strategic risk advisory services on issues including the Russia-Ukraine War, the Middle East, and sanctions and export controls.