By Fen Osler Hampson

November 8, 2026

The morning after the “blue tsunami” repudiation of Donald Trump in America’s midterm elections, Premier Doug Ford said he was “doing cartwheels”.

He shouldn’t—and not just because he might seriously hurt himself.

For one thing, the election was less an endorsement of the Democrats than a repudiation of Trump by American voters who had grown increasingly disenchanted with him over, among other things, the high cost of living—especially at the gas pump—and the Iran war, which drove fuel prices higher.

The Democrats themselves remain deeply unpopular. In the RealClearPolitics polling average in the two months before the vote, 54.5 percent of Americans viewed the party unfavourably and only 38.9 percent favourably. Corruption was also a big issue.

Corruption was also an issue in the November 3^rd results. In a Harris poll for the Guardian a week before the election, 76 percent of voters said elected officials care more about enriching themselves than improving the economy for ordinary people.

Significantly, corruption ranked second only to the cost of living as a voting issue. While 40 percent said Republicans had the bigger corruption problem, 21 percent pointed to the Democrats.

No doubt, the Premier is hoping that Congress will now put some guardrails around President Donald Trump’s tariffs, one of the main reasons the Republicans took such a drubbing in key states like Michigan. The Wall Street Journal reported late last week that Democrats from Michigan, Maine and Alaska are already “hatching a plan” to roll back tariffs against Canada with the support of some Republicans.

But nobody—including Ontario’s premier—should be cartwheeling on Trump’s political grave, at least not yet. Trump can still do enormous economic damage, given the reach of his office, especially in foreign and trade policy. He can also veto legislation he doesn’t like. Democrats would likely struggle to win enough Republican votes to reach the two-thirds Senate majority needed to override one.

The risk is that Trump may dig in rather than back away from tariff policies that are clearly hurting key sectors of the US economy, including the auto sector.

Although Trump made some encouraging noises about reaching a trade deal with Canada just before the election, he may be in a vindictive mood after his party’s defeat. It is not a good sign that he is replacing his chief of staff, Susie Wiles—regarded as a pro-business and moderating influence—with her deputy, Stephen Miller.

Miller is a pure-blood MAGA warrior and has drunk the tariff Kool-Aid. He has also made aggressive, disparaging remarks about trade imbalances with Canada and Canada’s allegedly lax border management.

The risk is that Trump may dig in rather than back away from tariff policies that are clearly hurting key sectors of the US economy, including the auto sector.

Trump’s disdain for Detroit’s “Big 3” automakers—Ford, General Motors and Stellantis—was laid bare by journalists Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan in their extraordinary book, Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.

They describe in vivid detail how Trump cavalierly dismissed warnings from his own commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, that his 25 per cent tariffs on Mexico, Canada and imported autos would put US automakers at a serious disadvantage. Publicly, he even claimed they were “excited” and “thrilled” at the prospect that plants would be coming stateside.

Trump has always seen tariffs as the way to bring manufacturing back to the United States, and neither he nor his team has publicly wavered from that view.

Canada’s negotiators should therefore not expect a post-midterm Trump to be chastened or contrite at the bargaining table. As he turns to cementing his legacy, he may be even more reluctant to abandon policies he claims will restore American manufacturing to its storied past but which largely benefit China.

If Canada hopes to secure tariff reductions that keep our auto sector alive—or at least on life support—our leaders should keep their heads down, neither crowing about the election results nor overplaying our hand. Premier Ford, in particular, should by now have learned the dangers of poking the bear.

As Trump and his team “lawyer up” for battles with Congress over investigations and possible impeachment proceedings, which some Democrats are already raising, Washington may be in such political turmoil it has little time for Canada and trade talks.

That includes Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, whose business dealings and past ties to the late Jeffrey Epstein are likely to face renewed scrutiny from a Democratic-controlled Congress. Such distractions could cut either way for Canada, depending on how Trump’s trade winds blow.

Policy Contributing Writer Fen Osler Hampson, FRSC, is the Chancellor’s Professor and Professor of International Affairs at Carleton University, and president of the World Refugee & Migration Council. He is co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-US Relations.