Don Newman

July 26, 2023

Seven in and seven out. Thirty of thirty-eight cabinet portfolios affected and only eight cabinet ministers remaining in their jobs. That was what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau concocted in a massive shuffle of his cabinet two years after the last election and  likely two years before the next.

“This is the best possible team, optimistic and ambitious, that will be delivering for Canadians,” Trudeau told reporters in the classic, Rideau Hall post-shuffle newser, with the new cabinet standing behind him.

With so many new members in the cabinet and their families and friends on hand to witness their elevation, the swearing-in had a celebratory air about it. But the reality is the massive rearrangement of the cabinet comes as the Trudeau government has been in office for almost eight years, is beset with problems and is languishing up to ten points behind in the public opinion polls.

The confidence and supply agreement with the New Democrats to support the Liberals on key votes in the House of Commons increases the chances that the minority Liberals will actually get to the end of the life of the current Parliament in the fall of 2025.

Trudeau is clearly hoping that new faces, new energy and good luck will turn the polls around and give the Liberals a fourth mandate.

With the next election in mind, six of the seven new ministers are members of communities that are an important part of the Liberal base. Ministers moved within the cabinet are good political communicators and part of their new jobs will be to sell Liberal programs already in place as well new programs still to come.

Trudeau is clearly hoping that new faces, new energy and good luck will turn the polls around and give the Liberals a fourth mandate.

However, the shuffle — big as it is — does not bring an entirely new face to the Liberals. Eight ministers are still in the jobs they’ve previously held. And most are in high-profile positions, most notably Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. But Innovation, Science and Economic Development Minister Francois Philippe Champagne and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Jolie are also in the same positions. With them still in place, to some extent watching this government in question period will be like going to the opera, with a lot of new members in the chorus, while the people singing the leads are still the same.

Cabinet shuffles are not new as governments try to revive their fortunes, but few have approached this one in size. The most analogous is the 1991 shuffle Brian Mulroney deployed on his Progressive Conservative government as it languished in the polls. Mulroney shuffled 29 of his 39 ministers, but added only one new cabinet member.

The results of that shuffle are not a harbinger today’s Liberals want to replicate. Two years later, Mulroney was gone and the Progressive Conservatives were reduced to two seats in the House of Commons, setting the stage for the extinction of the party a decade later.

Contributing Writer and columnist Don Newman, an Officer of the Order of Canada and lifetime member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, is Executive Vice President of Rubicon Strategy, based in Ottawa.