By Derek H. Burney

June 4, 2026

In an increasingly turbulent world, the hardest choice Canada faces is ongoing pressure from the United States to revise the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA) with a flagrantly protectionist, ‘might is right’ administration and on grounds exclusively favourable to America.

The CUSMA renegotiation remains up in the air. The Americans are seeking unilateral entry fees and concessions up front as the price of admission.

Just this week, under pressure from the U.S., the Carney government ordered the CRTC to “review” its decision to increase Canadian content for streaming services – another unilateral concession with nothing in return.

The U.S. administration is also insisting on changes to rules of origin for autos that would favour even more – 50% – production in the U.S. While it may be a key to a “Fortress North America” concept that Canada could presumably use to gain some relief on aluminum, steel and auto tariffs, it is unlikely to return us to any semblance of free trade, or repair the damage already inflicted.

It could also disrupt Canada’s existing trade commitments to the EU and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Not a party to either agreement, the U.S. would not be as vulnerable.

To a certain extent, the U.S is following a similar strategy to the one used on NAFTA in 2018 – cut a deal first with Mexico and then present it to Canada with a ‘take it or leave it’ ultimatum.

Minister Dominic LeBlanc and top trade negotiator Janice Charette’s visit to Washington earlier this week was presumably an attempt to get in front of that maneuver. So far, nothing suggests that it worked.

The larger issue is, of course, one of suspension of disbelief and trust at the table: how can anyone trust the U.S. to honour commitments to any new trade agreement when it blatantly violates the existing CUSMA?

Canada should vigorously resist all the Trump administration’s blandishments in the bottom-line belief that no deal is better than a bad deal.

We should, in Canadian hockey parlance, ‘rag the puck’ as long as we can, preferably with Mexican support, and use the six-month termination option that would take us beyond the midterms to the new Congress, where Trump’s leverage is likely to be less determinative.

We can hope that more sensible minds in Congress and the U.S. business community will ultimately stanch the damage being caused.

It is not clear whether Trump can unilaterally abrogate a Senate-approved treaty without congressional support but the prospect of him agreeing to a 16-year extension, as Canada proposed in writing this week in Washington, is preposterous.

However, his self-proclaimed prowess as a consummate dealmaker has withered due to the unsettled Iran situation and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia stalemate. At some point, it may contain his unorthodox and illegal moves on trade.

Looking beyond North America, instead of flirting capriciously with China, it would be more prudent for Canada to forge a stronger economic and security partnership with Japan – a nation with which we have much more in common and that has a distinct need for Canada’s oil and gas resources. We should act decisively to deliver on that opportunity.

China also needs energy resources, but any deal would come with risks, all too evident from China’s previous trade actions.

Japan and China are archrivals in Asia. Given the ambivalence in Trump’s Washington about security in the region and for Taiwan in particular, Japan is moving to assert its own security interests and to enhance its historical relationship with Taiwan.

If Canada seriously intends to wean itself away from almost exclusive dependence on the U.S. for trade and security, Japan offers a natural option, underpinned by shared interests and values.

Neither action sits well with Beijing. When Japan announced a US$58 billion budget for defence, China accused it of engaging in a “new militarism.” But Japan’s defence minister rejected the criticism, arguing that it “was actually China and its huge arsenal of weapons that was a serious concern to the international community.”

With increased defence spending, Japan is investing in new surface-to-air missiles and unmanned drones to be deployed on land and underwater. Rules are being eased to let it sell lethal weapons to other countries to further consolidate its defence industrial base.

The stronger accent on security issues is not without controversy in Japan, whose postwar constitution entrenched pacifism as a key tenet, but it is clearly motivated by declining confidence in security commitments from Trump’s America.

Tensions with China rose last November, when Beijing complained about the suggestion that, should China invade Taiwan, Japan would respond with its own Self-Defence Forces.

China’s expansionist actions in Asia are prompting Japan and Taiwan to move closer politically and strategically. Canada should not hesitate to strengthen informal ties with Taiwan.

If Canada seriously intends to wean itself away from almost exclusive dependence on the U.S. for trade and security, Japan offers a natural option, underpinned by shared interests and values.

The continuing imbroglio in Iran underscores an increasing uncertainty about the U.S. as “leader of the free world.” The combination of blustering and blinking by the U.S. administration over a path to peace does not sit well at home in America, let alone with erstwhile allies.

In all the confusion, Iran seems to be adroitly playing a ‘cat and mouse’ waiting game, with the U.S. as the mouse. Despite all the puffery, Trump is still a long way away from achieving his key goals with Iran and neither polling nor the price of gas offer any joy for Republicans ahead of the November midterms.

Trump’s abject neglect of Ukraine’s need for missile defence systems is a further embarrassment for the western alliance. Even though the Ukrainians have stoutly held off further ground incursions by Russia, and in fact have recaptured land seized earlier, they face withering ballistic missile attacks on civilian structures.

They are desperately trying to respond in kind with their own advanced drone technology and with some help from Europeans. Inexplicably, and despite bipartisan pressure from Congress, the U.S. Administration has been reluctant to provide Patriot missiles to Ukraine or to reintroduce heavier sanctions on Russia.

As confidence wains on U.S. security commitments and on NATO itself, the Europeans are scrambling to fill the void but their own negligence on security spending and longstanding overreliance on the U.S. cannot be offset overnight. The lessons learned, however, will have a significant impact on European attitudes about America for years to come.

At a time when Russia’s economy is teetering precariously, the U.S. and the West should tighten, not weaken, economic pressure on Russia. If Putin starts losing at home, that could be the best hope for peace.

For Canada, the renegotiation of CUSMA must be a top priority but, in an increasingly uncertain world, the smart bet would be to reduce our vulnerability to the U.S. and establish closer ties with more welcoming partners, particularly in Europe and Asia.

Derek H. Burney is a former 30-year career diplomat who served as Canada’s Ambassador to the United States from 1989-1993. He now shares operations of a family cattle and horse ranch in Colorado.