By Lori Turnbull

September 1, 2026

After another very good by-election night for Mark Carney’s Liberals on Monday, the opposition parties will be asking, “What now?”

There are six more by-elections in the offing. Is Carney going to sweep those, too?

In the middle of a trade war with Donald Trump’s volatile American presidency, when Canadians seem to have decided that Carney is the prime minister qualified to fight that war, the lack of urgency on the part of opposition party leaders to enter the fray is such that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has “disappeared” according to one columnist, and NDP Leader Avi Lewis has, so far, adopted a policy of sitting out the 2026 by-elections rather than sitting in the House amid the Carney clinch.

Monday night, all three Liberal candidates won their ridings with more than 50% of the popular vote. No second-place candidate came remotely close.

Carney had teed up three races that the Liberals were almost sure to win so that the government could go back to the House of Commons on September 21st with its majority intact (following resignations by MPs on both sides of the House that could have upset that balance).

Regardless of the reasons and context, Carney has put up so many wins over the past year that he looks almost untouchable.

In that sense, the Liberal sweep didn’t come as a shock. It was expected, with the arguable exception of Chicoutimi-LeFjord, a seat with a more variable history than the Liberal strongholds of Beaches-East York and Vancouver North-Capilano.

In our current political climate, Carney has maintained a level of public support secure enough for the moment that voters don’t seem to be looking for an alternative. And in an existential crisis both economic and political, there is greater pressure on opposition politicians to avoid the kind of partisan pot-shotting that had been the pre-Carney norm in Canada’s political discourse.

We are a far cry from the polarized Fight Club of Pierre Poilievre vs. Justin Trudeau.

Carney has enjoyed a steady polling honeymoon since his election in 2025, including 76% of Canadians who support his decision to walk away from trade talks with the U.S. on August 21st. And it’s not just the polls talking.

The Liberals have won every by-election since Carney has been the leader, apart from the one in Battle River-Crowfoot that kept Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s political career alive, which, let’s face it, has also benefited Carney. Add to this the defections of five MPs from other parties to join Carney’s Liberals and the opposition leaders seem to be bystanders.

Carney has maintained a level of public support secure enough for the moment that voters don’t seem to be looking for an alternative.

Opinion polls show that Carney enjoys strong support from across the country and has a positive rating from most voters, largely due to the way in which he has dealt with the economic and existential menace of Donald Trump, as well as his plan for fortifying Canada’s economy against such threats.

The Liberals’ by-election trifecta appears to endorse Carney’s handling of the Canada-U.S. file. This is especially true given that the votes were held just 10 days after Carney directed Canada’s trade team to walk away from talks with the United States.

In Chicoutimi-Le Fjord though, Carney’s competitive advantage on this combined with the fact that he smartly chose a dairy farmer as a candidate who serves as proof of the prime minister’s commitment to supply management, produced a huge Liberal margin, effectively collapsing the Conservative vote to a paltry 12.5%.

This riding became vacant, of course, because Prime Minister Carney appointed its Conservative incumbent Richard Martel to the Senate, likely because of the sense that the riding was candidate-held and, without Mr. Martel, it would be in play for the Liberals.

For the opposition parties, the percentages behind the Liberal sweep held some good news. The Bloc held a respectable 34% of the popular vote in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, up slightly from their result in 2025, but they came nowhere near close to touching the Liberals. The New Democrats showed proof of life in Beaches-East York, winning over 25% of the vote, but that could be an isolated result in a riding where they have a history of doing well.

The night was an all-out bust for the Conservatives. This will only amplify questions about Poilievre’s future.

The opposition parties will get another chance to breathe down Carney’s neck fairly shortly, once the six fresh by-elections are called.

The ballot question is still the same as it was in 2025: who do you think is most qualified to lead the country against Trump?

As long as this remains the case, which is likely for the foreseeable future, it will be tough for the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois to gain traction. They don’t have the numbers to form a government, so they cannot answer the ballot question.

The remaining question is whether the Poilievre and the Conservatives can. Though the 2025 election was a rough night for them, they still won over 40% of the popular vote. But now that’s a distant memory and they trail the Liberals by double digits in popular support.

Voters expect and deserve a robust opposition to hold government to account, even in extraordinary times. But on this score, there is no proof of life.

This will make the next round of by-elections even more of a test of Poilievre than it will be of Carney.

Dr. Lori Turnbull is a professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.