By Daniel Béland

January 14, 2026

With less than nine months to go before a scheduled Quebec election, Premier François Legault has responded to pressure from both his polls and his party, announcing his withdrawal from the field, leaving Quebec politics in flux and his party pondering the odds of a provincial Mark Carney saving the day.

In some ways, we can draw parallels between Legault’s announcement Wednesday that he would step down as premier and leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last year.

As with Trudeau’s longevity issue at the time, Legault has been premier since late November 2018 and leader of the CAQ since its creation in 2011. He is now a deeply unpopular first minister who clearly outstayed his welcome as leader and dragged down his party’s popularity.

According to a Pallas poll released the day before Legault resigned, only 12% of Quebecers have a very/fairly favorable perception of Premier Legault. This is hardly a new trend because, according to previous polls, the popularity of François has remained below 15% since September.

As for the CAQ, it currently sits in fourth place for the first time for this pollster, tied with the left-wing Québec Solidaire party at only 11% of popular support, respectively 23 points behind the Parti Québécois (PQ), 13 points behind the Liberal Party of Quebec (LPQ), and 5 points behind the Conservative Party of Quebec, which does not even have a seat in the National Assembly.

These numbers — which may well have informed the timing if not the substance of Legault’s announcement within 24 hours — are terrible, especially because the next provincial election will take place on October 5 at the latest, giving the CAQ less than nine months to turn things around.

As for the new leader, they will have much less time to prepare for the provincial campaign, although we do not know yet when the CAQ leadership race will begin, and when the new leader will be chosen.

Like the Liberal Party of Canada last winter, the CAQ should move swiftly to replace their unpopular leader and premier with someone who could rejuvenate a party afflicted with what is known in French l’usure du pouvoir, which points to the “gradual weakening of one’s political capital over time once in office”.

Considering that and how poorly the CAQ is doing in the polls, some potential quality candidates might get cold feet and decide not to run, in light of the uphill electoral battle that a new party leader and premier would have to wage, with so little time to organize and secure name recognition ahead of the election.

At the same time, the hairpin turnaround experienced last year by the federal Liberals thanks to Carney’s arrival may encourage potential contenders who might otherwise see the CAQ as — at least for now — a poisoned chalice.

Still, Carney and the federal Liberals only had to siphon votes from three rival parties, whereas the new CAQ leader will have to vanquish four. Carney also benefited from an “external shock” they used against their main opponent, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre: the return of Donald Trump to the White House.

The Trump effect was powerful but it is not clear at this stage whether the nearest equivalent of it in the context of Quebec’s election — the threat of an independence referendum — would carry the same existential cargo.

The hairpin turnaround experienced last year by the federal Liberals thanks to Carney’s arrival may encourage potential contenders who might otherwise see the CAQ as — at least for now — a poisoned chalice.

Certainly, the prospect of the potential demise of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), an agreement President Trump claims he does not care about, could have catastrophic consequences both in Canada and Quebec, and one could imagine the possibility of the next CAQ leader proclaiming themselves as the best person to protect the province in the context of the trade war with the United States.

This is exactly what Doug Ford did last winter in Ontario, when he triggered a provincial election while claiming to have “a plan do protect Ontario” in a context of acute economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

While this uncertainty remains strong as the Trump administration is pursuing punitive trade policies and strengthening U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere, the new CAQ leader might find it difficult to take a similar tack, partly because aggressively embracing a “team Canada” approach might prove politically problematic for a party that strongly embraces Quebec nationalism.

This is partly why, unlike both Carney and Ford, Premier Legault has not really tied to surf on the widespread unpopularity of Donald Trump and his policies.

At the same time, the shadow of Trump hovering over both Canada and the Belle Province could help the CAQ score points against the PQ, as its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, clings to the idea that, if he becomes premier in the aftermath of the next provincial elections, he would organize a third referendum by 2030.

Considering the ongoing economic uncertainty stemming from the Canada-U.S. trade war and how Donald Trump is attacking the sovereignty of jurisdictions as different as Greenland and Venezuela (not to mention his previous remarks about marking Canada the 51st state), the prospect of a third independence referendum, which most Quebecers already oppose, could help the CAQ politically, as standing in the way of a new referendum is part of the party’s DNA and the glue that helps keep its coalition together.

In fact, barely a month ago, Premier Legault declared he would lead the CAQ during the next provincial campaign because he wanted to prevent both a new referendum and the return of the LPQ to power. This is a mantra that the new CAQ leader would likely echo, if they are able to unify what is left of the coalition Legault created a decade and a half ago.

Yet, for the CAQ to turn things around, which remains a very long shot at this stage, it probably needs to find a leader who is not closely associated with the widely unpopular Legault government.

That excludes current cabinet members such as Simon-Jolin Barette, Geneviève Guilbault, and Sonia Lebel, whose names are already mentioned as potential Legault successors.

This is why some commentators have mentioned former Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) leader Mario Dumont as a potential contender, but Dumont quickly stated that he is not interested in running.

If a “white knight” who could do for the CAQ what Mark Carney did for the Liberal Party of Canada a year ago doesn’t ride in, both the PQ and the LPQ will likely focus on fighting each other rather than targeting a declining, post-Legault CAQ.

Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.