AP

Amid escalating tensions between Ottawa and New Delhi, Indian students in Canada are at risk of becoming collateral damage.

By Aftab Ahmed

September 24, 2023

Canada’s reputation as a premier destination for international university students is well-established across the higher educational landscape. Additionally, the availability of robust post-graduation opportunities and a clear path to immigration further enhances the country’s overarching appeal. Indeed, within the realm of soft power policy tools, Canada’s tertiary education sector stands as an undeniable economic asset.

Owing to a recent breakdown of Indo-Canadian bilateral relations, a question has emerged, particularly among the Indian diaspora in Canada: Will the tit-for-tat diplomatic skirmishes in the wake of strained relations adversely affect international students of Indian origin in Canada? For Ottawa, the prudent course of action involves recognizing these students not as pawns in diplomatic maneuvers but simply as young individuals pursuing academic training and envisioning a stable future in Canada. On September 20th, New Delhi issued a warning to Indian students in Canada to “exercise extreme caution and remain vigilant.”

Historically, Canada has witnessed an upward trajectory in its international student population, peaking at 638,300 in 2019. This was followed by a temporary dip in 2020 due to the pandemic but then showed a resounding comeback in 2021 with international student numbers nearing pre-pandemic levels. Today, that number stands at roughly 800,000. Indian citizens have emerged as a dominant, high-performing talent pipeline, representing 40 percent of Canada’s international student population.

The economic impact of Indian students in Canada cannot be overstated. From 2018 to 2022, Canada saw a rapid increase in the number of Indian students, which culminated in a population of 319,000 in 2022. International students writ-large stimulate the Canadian economy by a staggering $22.3 billion, surpassing revenue from significant exports such as auto parts, lumber, and aircraft. This influx of international students supported over 218,000 jobs in 2018 alone, emphasizing the weight of the potential economic loss if Indo-Canadian ties sour further.

This year, the Ontario college sector anticipates that international students, hailing predominantly from India, will constitute over 50 percent of their student population. Notably, these students are projected to contribute approximately two billion dollars to the college system, surpassing the financial contributions of the Government of Ontario. Furthermore, Statistics Canada posits a clear tuition fee disparity, with international students paying over five times more in total tuition compared to their domestic counterparts.

The bottom line being: the fiscal sustainability and overarching well-being of Ontario’s higher education sector hinges upon a smooth, consistent, and deliberate inflow of international students, a majority of whom tend to come from India. The same can be said for the higher education sectors of other provinces.

Moreover, beyond immediate tuition fees and living expenses, Indian students have shown a trend of transitioning to permanent residency, a pattern that reinforces Canada’s future workforce. Data suggests that around 30 percent of international students who entered in 2000 or later chose to become landed immigrants within a decade. The figure becomes even more impressive considering the demographic composition of Canada’s labour force, which is aging rapidly with over 21.8 percent nearing retirement. Clearly, international students, with their recently acquired Canadian educational credentials and hands-on academic training, will play a pivotal role in filling labor shortages.

However, with tensions escalating, resulting in the expulsion of diplomats from both sides and allegations and counter-allegations surrounding the Nijjar killing, concerns among students are palpable. While the demand from Indian students remains high, precedents such as strained Indo-Australian relations affecting student migration over a decade ago, suggest that geopolitics can shape educational pathways. If India opts to redirect its students to other countries, Canada stands to lose a major economic advantage.

The situation is further compounded by the housing crisis, a challenge that, according to some, has been exacerbated by the inflow of international students. Canada needs to develop 5.8 million new homes by 2030 to address this crisis, a federal priority acknowledged by the Canadian Immigration Minister. While curbing the number of international students is being touted as prospective solution to cool the housing market, a dip in student numbers may have cascading effects on Canada’s long-term economic growth.

For Ottawa, the prudent course of action involves recognizing these students not as pawns in diplomatic maneuvers but simply as young individuals pursuing academic training and envisioning a stable future in Canada.

Unfortunately, there is a distinct paradox in today’s policy considerations. While immigration-friendly initiatives aim to bolster the labour force in response to an aging population, they might inadvertently complicate efforts to enhance housing affordability, presenting a classic demand-supply conundrum.

Justin Trudeau’s bombshell announcement about the suspected involvement of the Indian state apparatus in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil unequivocally necessitates a comprehensive investigation. In an ideal world, given Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategic goals and the sacrosanct nature of people-to-people connections between both countries, New Delhi and Ottawa would be best off if they function as strategic allies. Today, this seems unlikely, particularly in light of New Delhi’s stubborn stance regarding the investigation into what, if proven true, would be a regrettable and unprecedented breach of Canadian sovereignty.

With diplomatic tensions expected to escalate further, the fate of Indian international students in Canada hangs delicately in the balance. Will Canadian authorities continue to confer study permits to Indians? For those who have made Canada their academic destination of choice, will applications for study permit extensions receive favorable considerations? Is there a potential for this particular demographic to fall under an intensified lens of scrutiny from the Canadian security and economic establishments?

Beyond the bureaucratic implications, a more profound concern surfaces: Could the systemic erosion of diplomatic relations imperil the safety, security, and psychological well-being of these students?

Ottawa’s awareness of these nuances is imperative. A strong statement from the federal government is needed – one that fortifies the assurance that the Indian diaspora, including students, will not find their ongoing or future prospects in jeopardy. While India’s cessation of visa activities for Canadians was perhaps a foreseeable diplomatic move from a Modi government hell-bent on discrediting prime minister Trudeau’s allegations, one hopes that Canada, in its response, adopts an evidence-oriented stance. Resorting to a broad-brush approach, especially using the substantial cohort of international students as diplomatic collateral would be both rash and ill-advised.

In the midst of national security debates and diplomatic tensions, one tends to forget the human toll. Media reports have shed light on the stress faced by Indian students caught in this turmoil . One hopes that Canadians and their government will extend empathy and support to these students during this challenging time. Standing by them, safeguarding their aspirations, and demonstrating values of compassion is the right thing to do.

Policy Contributing Writer Aftab Ahmed recently graduated with a Master of Public Policy degree from the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University. He is a contributor to The Line and a columnist for the Bangladeshi newspapers The Daily Star and Dhaka Tribune. He is currently an Urban Fellow Researcher with the City of Toronto.

The views expressed by the author of this article represent their personal opinions and do not reflect the views or opinions of any organization, institution, or entity associated with the author.