Breaking Point: The New Big Shifts Putting Canada at Risk

By Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson

Penguin Random House, October 2025/240 pages

Reviewed by Martha Hall Findlay

November 19, 2025

Breaking Point is an important read for anyone seeking to understand the major challenges facing Canada right now: the economic challenges, the deep-seated regional tensions, the inter-generational tensions, and the many problems we face thanks to the sometimes well-intentioned but badly managed policy decision-making that defines modern Canadian politics.

The country is in a dangerous place. To double down on a Carney-ism, any hinge moment handled the wrong way can easily become an unhinge moment. Breaking Point compels the reader to confront the possibility of a fundamentally different, and less unified (both regionally and generationally) future for the country. But the authors also offer hope in suggesting some solutions — some we’ve heard before, some novel and thought-provoking.

This new work from Ipsos Global CEO Darrell Bricker and Globe and Mail Writer at Large John Ibbitson — authors of 2013’s The Big Shift — arrives at a particularly volatile moment in Canadian politics, positioning itself to “ignite debate, dominate political discourse, and become the definitive guide” to understanding the seismic shifts reshaping the nation. Whether one agrees with their conclusions or not, Breaking Point demands serious engagement with fundamental questions about Canada’s future.

Bricker and Ibbitson deliver an “unapologetically candid” analysis. It’s true, the authors do not pull many punches in their assessment of problematic policies and regional attitudes. The “Laurentian elites”, Ibbitson’s label for the Quebec/Ontario axis of influence that determined Canadian policy and political outcomes for decades — it was a major theme of The Big Shift — is a recurring, and not complimentary, term.

While some may find the book alarmist, I do not. For a long time now, I have seen the steady decline in our Canadian economy (verified by overwhelming statistics), have sensed a growing complacency in our attitudes, and witnessed an expanding incompetence in our political decision-making.

At a moment when Canada needs a wake-up call, Breaking Point is a must-read.

A very strong message of the book, one with which I agree, is that despite all of the problems Donald Trump has been creating, he is forcing a reckoning within Canada. “But believe it or not,” per the authors, “Trump is not the biggest threat our country faces. Our own worst enemy is ourselves.” And in my own words: if we do not take this threat seriously and take advantage of our new awareness of what changes are needed – and then make them – then shame on us.

Indeed, the last lines of the book are:

“…What the next Canada looks like is up to you and your family and your neighbours and your community. The Canadians who came before us knew what they had to do, and did it. Now it’s your turn. Let’s get to work.”

Bricker and Ibbitson don’t just pick one issue or analysis; given their journalistic and public-opinion backgrounds, they deliver a broad survey of economic, social, regional, political and institutional dimensions (housing, youth alienation, immigration, regionalism, national defence), giving the reader a panorama of what’s at stake — and the writing is both intelligent and accessible.

Key themes the authors address include:

• Regional tensions: The authors go into detail about the changing nature of regional disputes and frustrations and rightly stress that the challenge is not just one of Quebec and its exceptional place in Canada, but the significantly increased frustrations across the Prairies (all while developing significantly greater economic influence within the country). They also include a chapter focused on Indigenous relations — the negatives of the past and prospects for the future. “Canada is not a love story,” they write. “It is a marriage of convenience, a survival strategy conceived a century and a half ago for a collection of colonies that were determined to protect their autonomy from America’s Manifest Destiny.”
• Immigration crisis: Immigration in Canada has for decades been more or less a success story, but the authors chronicle a number of bad policy decisions under the Trudeau government that have created major problems in Canada. These challenges are amply documented elsewhere as well (notably by Ibbitson’s Globe colleague Tony Keller in his 2025 Max Bell Lecture Series and accompanying book Borderline Chaos).
• Generational alienation: Younger Canadians feel increasingly disconnected from national institutions and traditional political structures. Bricker’s work as a pollster is particularly helpful in applying relevant statistics, his own and those of others, to paint a challenging picture.
• International isolation and the importance of defence and security: This book is neither alone nor new in pointing out that Canada has failed to adequately invest in its defence and international commitments. We stand at significant risk of not doing enough to ensure Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic territories (particularly in light of significant Russian and Chinese investments and operations in the region); we are at risk along our long border with the United States, no longer the ‘protective’ partner we have relied on for so long; and we have let down our international allies in terms of meeting NATO commitments.

Key solutions the authors offer up for consideration:

• Canada as a resource-based country: “We must face this simple truth: Canada is a resource-based economy pretending to be something else. We talk about innovation as though it were a religion while our pipelines sit on drawing boards and our electrical grids wheeze. We name-drop Silicon Valley North and the Technology Triangle as though oil, gas, timber, and food were things to be ashamed of. Yet the world is crying out for what we produce.” The authors note the success of Norway in harnessing its resource wealth while ensuring the support of Norwegians. “We could do the same. We should have done it already, but the conversation was hijacked by moralizing, magical thinking, and the fantasy of an economy that never matched who we are.”
• General economic improvements needed: The authors call for market-based economic development, deregulation, immigration reform, improved childcare, housing – and significantly smaller government. All these have been discussed by many in the public policy space for years, but the authors do offer some interesting possible actions. One in particular, with respect to housing shortages: they recommend that we stop focusing on urban densification, “telling people how they should live”, and embrace why we’re already so suburban: because suburban building offers what so many people actually want — affordable housing with yards and amenities for their families. Not everyone may agree, but the line, “Sprawl, baby, sprawl!” doesn’t leave one wondering about the authors’ views on this.
• Regional alienation: An interesting idea with respect to regional attitudinal disparities and Ottawa’s ignorance: Moving major government departments to non-Ottawa parts of the country – not just the public servants, but the ministers, deputy ministers, senior management. Another interesting idea, despite a recognition that opening the Constitution would be fraught with difficulties: replace the Senate with the Council of the Federation, which is composed of the Premiers of the provinces and territories. In answer to the expected cries of dismay, they ask: “Could Canadians of this generation succeed where previous generations have failed? Again, Donald Trump offers both a threat and an opportunity. All political leaders at all levels of government understand – or should understand – that this country is under existential threat, made worse by decades of laxity and internal squabbling. We fix things now, or we risk losing the country.” Some of their suggestions with respect to journalism and how to deal with the threats facing real journalism are interesting, including recommendations with respect to the CBC — not just because they relate to the importance of real journalism to democracy, but also to how our traditional media has exacerbated some of the regional tensions: “Let’s make (the CBC) truly national, not simply a Laurentian mirror.”
• National security: The authors offer a number of proposals for enhancing our national security, many of which have been outlined by others elsewhere. It is important, however, that this book adds to the chorus, and can refer to public polling of Canadians that shows strong majorities supporting significantly more effort and expense in defence. I personally appreciated this comment about attitude: “A resilient country is not just one with jets and submarines. It is one where citizens know they have a stake in the survival of the place they call home. That is the real foundation of sovereignty. Sovereignty is not simply inherited. It has to be built, guarded, and earned. If we fail, we will not be treated gently in the new world disorder. If we succeed, we will emerge as a country that stands on guard rather than just singing about it.”

Canadians may not agree on which key problems we face, or what the solutions should be. But we know that we are at a critical moment for Canada. Breaking Point provides an excellent framework for the debate we now need to have in order to choose the best possible path for Canada.

Martha Hall Findlay is director and Palmer Chair in Public Policy, School of Public Policy, University of Calgary and a member of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations. She previously served as chief sustainability officer for Suncor Energy and CEO of the Canada West Foundation. She was also elected twice as Member of Parliament for Willowdale, prior to which she was an international lawyer, working primarily in telecommunications. She was recently appointed senior advisor to Teneo.