By Colin Robertson

November 15, 2026

The Democrats’ midterm victories — securing control of the House of Representatives, the Senate and the governorships in 13 of the 14 most populous states covering 75 per cent of Americans — have changed Washington’s political arithmetic.

But they have not changed Canada’s overriding objective: relief from punitive tariffs and a renewed CUSMA that restores investor confidence, secures supply chains, and sustains Canadian jobs.

Donald Trump is a lame duck. Unfortunately, lame ducks can still bite using the presidential veto and executive trade powers.

A Democratic Congress can constrain him, but cannot simply wish those powers away. As US trade expert Bill Reinsch observed of Congress recently on the Center for Strategic and International Studies ‘The Trade Guys’ podcast: “They can start a lot of things. How many they can finish is the question.”

The new arithmetic in Washington is an opening, not a settlement. To achieve Canada’s goals will require the simultaneous pursuit of five paths:

• Negotiate immediate relief with the administration.
• Enlist the new Congress in securing durable continental trade.
• Mobilize Team Canada for sustained advocacy.
• Build Canada through infrastructure and dismantling of internal trade barriers.
• Diversify trade through new agreements, then follow through.

None of these measures on its own guarantees success. Pursuing them together improves our odds.

First, keep negotiating with the Trump administration. Waiting for January’s new Congress would mistake a promising political development for an economic strategy.

After speaking last week with President Trump, Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and USTR Jamieson Greer, Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated that autos remain Canada’s declared red line. Steel and aluminum appear likelier candidates for partial relief. That Washington is “asking less” and “offering more”, as Carney said, does not mean a deal is close.

The test will be what’s on paper — and not in pencil: tariff reductions, effective dates, protection against arbitrary reimposition, and credible enforcement. A temporary accommodation may be worthwhile, provided we identify its limits and do not exchange permanent concessions for revocable promises.

Ottawa needs a precise inventory of what Washington will remove. Section 338 duties and import bans, Section 232 sectoral tariffs and Section 301 measures all have different legal foundations and exemptions. Eliminating one restriction may leave another intact. Softwood lumber also faces separate trade-remedy duties. That court challenges to the president’s use of trade powers constitutionally assigned to Congress are having some effect is helpful, including a case that specifically addresses their application to Canada. but insufficient to resolve our current situation.

Ottawa must negotiate from an agreed Canadian position. Federal-provincial coordination is vital. Alcohol restrictions, procurement, and sectoral interests involve provincial authority.

Our leverage includes dependable energy, critical minerals and continental defence cooperation.

Use it carefully: threats that damage Canadian credibility or interrupt customers’ supplies can destroy the advantage we seek to exercise.

Equally, cooperation should secure reciprocal benefits, with reciprocal concessions sequenced against verifiable American action.

Second, turn congressional sympathy into durable access through the CUSMA review process.

Democrats will control committees, hearings, and the legislative agenda but Republicans whose constituents depend on Canada remain potential allies.

Hearings can expose costs, legislation can narrow presidential discretion, and spending negotiations can create bargaining opportunities. But ordinary congressional majorities cannot override a presidential veto.

Nor should we confuse Democratic victories with an embrace of free trade. The Democratic opposition to Trump’s trade policies has been partly based on politics, partly based on foreign policy, and partly based on a moral and reputational aversion to chaos-generating economic bullying. We are about to find out how much protectionism still exists beneath the disapprobation.

Biden retained and increased selected China tariffs as well as the US block on WTO dispute settlement. Tariff revenue will also be an attractive source for Democrats’ spending ambitions on healthcare and other projects.

That said, consumer affordability is our strongest argument.

In the post-election Reuters/Ipsos poll, 78 per cent wanted Congress to focus substantially on living costs; 71 per cent on gas and fuel prices. At the  Peterson Institute post-election seminar, Senior Fellow Mary Lovely explained the trade connection: “Protection means a higher domestic price.”

We should demonstrate how Canadian energy, lumber, aluminum and components reduce American costs and sustain American jobs.

The USTR consultation for the 2027 CUSMA review is already open. Submissions and hearing requests are due January 12th. Canadian firms should mobilize American customers and suppliers to explain what predictable continental access means for jobs and investment. Our objective must be enforceable rules and a renewed long-term commitment rather than another year of uncertainty.

Consult Mexico closely: North American competitiveness should not become a euphemism for relocating Canadian and Mexican production to the United States.

Third, make this a permanent Team Canada campaign, sustained beyond Washington and beyond the present disputes.

Every incoming member of Congress needs a tailored briefing from our highly capable embassy staff across Pennsylvania Avenue. Prioritize the trade, finance, agriculture, defence, and appropriations committees, their staff and congressional leaders. Keep cultivating Republican allies alongside Democrats.

Beyond Congress, target governors, state legislators, mayors, chambers of commerce, manufacturers, unions, farmers, utilities and universities. Enlist American businesses whose suppliers, customers and investments cross our border. Local voices explaining local consequences carry weight that foreign appeals rarely command.

Team Canada means Ottawa, provinces, municipalities, Indigenous partners, business, and labour working from shared evidence towards defined objectives.

Working with provincial representatives, our embassy and consulates should coordinate sustained local campaigns. Measure success in commitments, tariff relief, contracts and investment — not delegations dispatched or hands shaken.

Fourth, this campaign needs a stronger Canada behind it. Make Canadian production more competitive and reliable. Accelerate ports, rail, pipelines, electricity connections, housing and digital infrastructure. Improve approvals processing without abandoning environmental responsibility or Indigenous partnership. The Carney government has undertaken all of the above, with results pending.

Premiers must finish the job of removing internal trade barriers.

Support affected workers through income assistance, retraining linked to actual vacancies, apprenticeships and mobility assistance.

Help viable firms adjust, while resisting indefinite subsidies that neither preserve competitiveness nor secure employment.

Fifth, diversification must produce sales. Trade agreements, like those just announced  with Philippines and ASEAN, open doors, Businesses must now win customers. Team Canada missions should bring prepared firms to identified buyers, backed by export financing, regulatory problem-solving and persistent follow-up. Count contracts, not communiqués.

Work with Mexico, the European Union and Indo-Pacific partners who share our navigation issues in a disrupted Washington.  Use CETA and the CPTPP more effectively, pursue additional agreements where worthwhile, and build coalitions of the willing around critical minerals, procurement, standards, and resilient supply chains. Shared interests offer practical scope for cooperation without requiring agreement on everything.

The midterm results and what should be a pendulum swing back toward normalcy and ‘ordered liberty’ provide an opportunity. Canada must turn our strategy into durable results.

Negotiate persistently, advocate everywhere and build the capacity to withstand setbacks through trade and smart investment. Canada has, so far, navigated Trump II better than most. Now is the time to double down on the lessons we have learned and secure a less vulnerable future.

Contributing Writer Colin Robertson, C.M., C.D, a former career diplomat, is a fellow and host of the Global Exchange podcast with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Ottawa.