By Don Newman

April 17, 2026

The newly cobbled together majority government in the House of Commons has given the Liberal Party and Prime Minister Mark Carney more time and more leeway to pursue its far-reaching, extremely expensive “Build Canada” agenda.

But the new alignment in the Commons has also changed the calculations of at least two of the three opposition parties.

The majority created by five floor crossings from the opposition and three by-election wins this week means the current Parliament could go into 2029 before having to go to the polls in a national election.

That is clearly beneficial for the Liberal government. But it also adds to the pressure. With a majority, it is now up to Liberals to deliver on their ambitious agenda. No partner parties are needed. It is up to Carney and his revamped Liberal Party to deliver or fail to.

But the realigned House of Commons changes the calculus for the Conservatives and the New Democrats as well. What happens in the Quebec provincial election and the possibility of a subsequent referendum on the province leaving Canada are likely to be the driving forces on the future of the Bloc Québécois in Ottawa.

But with a likely three years to the next election, both the Conservatives and the NDP now have to rethink their leadership strategies.

With a minority Liberal government, the possibility of an election was something always on the minds of politicians from all parties. A minority government can fall because the opposition parties all vote against it in the House of Commons. A minority government can trigger an election by arranging for its own defeat. Or a prime minister can ask the Governor-General for an election by claiming the opposition parties are not co-operating and Parliament is deadlocked.

As prime minister, Mark Carney could still ask for an election. But so far, he seems unlikely to do that. Doing so would slow down the pace of the big projects he is promoting, and he now has the majority to push them through the House of Commons.

That changes the calculations for the Conservatives. Their leader, Pierre Poilievre, ranks far behind Carney as Canadians’ choice for prime minister, although the party itself is much closer to the Liberals in public opinion polls.

The defection of four Conservative members of Parliament to the Liberals since last November has further hurt Poilievre’s leadership although at a convention in January, delegates overwhelmingly endorsed his leadership.

With a likely three years to the next election, both the Conservatives and the NDP now have to rethink their leadership strategies.

Since then, the two most recent Tory defections have taken place. And now, with a longer electoral time frame, Conservatives will be waiting to see if any more members abandon ship and whether Poilievre can climb back up in the approval ratings. If he is still languishing where he is now (at 48% disapproval to Carney’s 58% approval, per Ipsos), expect the 140-member Conservative parliamentary caucus to invoke the Chong Act.

The act was devised by Conservative MP Michael Chong and passed in 2015. It gives party caucuses that have adopted it the opportunity to vote on whether they want a leadership change. Only the Conservatives have adopted the mechanism, and they have used it. The caucus removed Erin O’Toole as leader after the 2021 election, and the subsequent leadership convention picked Poilievre.

The Conservative leader is now trying to change his image. But Pierre Poilievre as “statesmanlike” is a bit of a stretch from his longstanding pugnacious persona. Don’t be surprised if his job remains under pressure and the Chong Act is used again.

The major variable discouraging that for now is that there is no obvious successor mobilizing in the wings, but that will evolve as Carney’s government acquires the negatives that all governments tend to over time, and running against him becomes a less daunting proposition for potential contenders.

As for the New Democrats, they recently picked Avi Lewis to lead the party after a disastrous showing in last year’s election that has left it without official party status in the House of Commons and with only six MPs. Unfortunately, none of those MPs is Lewis. He has shown no indication that he wants to run in a by-election that could be triggered by one of the six New Democrats resigning their seat to create a vacancy.

That was a defensible strategy as long as there was a minority government and the possibility of an election likely no more than a year away. But trying to lead a party from outside of the Commons for up to three years will be a daunting challenge even for a forceful, articulate speaker like Lewis. However, running in a by-election and losing could doom his leadership and perhaps the NDP with it. Not an easy decision to face.

The new Carney majority has created myriad opportunities and challenges, and not just for the government.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a past president of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.