By Don Newman

February 17, 2026

Prime Minister Mark Carney revealed his government’s Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS) Tuesday, including plans to spend more than 6 billion additional dollars transforming the Canadian Armed Forces into a modern self-sufficient military force.

Carney said the plan’s primary role will be to defend Canada and Canadian sovereignty. But it will also meet NATO obligations with like-minded allies and allow Canada to play an increasingly important role in international affairs.

The federal budget last fall earmarked $8.8 billion for defence spending over the next five years. Six point six billion dollars of that money is to be spent in support of the DIS.

The release of the preliminary document will set off a flurry of activity by companies already in the defence procurement industry as well as companies hoping they might get into it.

It will also set off a flurry of activity in the lobbying industry, among firms eager to support companies looking for lucrative defence contracts that in turn could be lucrative for them as well.

The strategy is expected to create 125,000 jobs and increase the number of defence contracts awarded to Canadian companies to 70% of the procurement total. At the moment, 70% of defence contracts are awarded to American contractors.

The change in strategy could increase tensions between Canada and the United States, already fraying because of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian exports and annexation threats.

In fact, increased American belligerence is one of the reasons for the new DIS. Canadians no longer feel they can count on America’s unmatched military, nuclear arsenal, and defence agreements to defend our country. Indeed, many have come to see the United States as more of a threat than a buttress.

In his recent speech in Davos, Carney spoke of the “rupture” in the postwar order attributed to Donald Trump’s presidency (without naming him). He said middle powers like Canada must now devise ways to co-operate to prevent bullying by hegemonic superpowers.

This new strategy was to have been announced in Canada just before Carney left for Europe and another speech, this time to the Munich Security Conference, the longstanding policy and political gathering dubbed colloquially “Davos with Guns.”

Now if Carney wants to speak to the wider implications of Canada’s new defence posture, he will have to find a new venue. Possibly, he will address the House of Commons.

The strategy, its proposals, and subsequent developments are almost certain to trigger a negative reaction from the U.S. President. It is clear the intention is to dramatically reduce Canadian reliance on American defence contractors.

And at Munich, on the sidelines of the conference, Defence Minister David McGuinty signed an agreement with Denmark to strengthen defence co-operation, including vis-à-vis the Danish controlled territory of Greenland.

Canadians no longer feel they can count on America’s unmatched military, nuclear arsenal, and defence agreements to defend our country. Indeed, many have come to see the United States as more of a threat than a buttress.

Trump has threatened the America-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization by saying he wants America to assume control of Greenland and has threatened American military action to achieve that objective. The Canada-Denmark agreement could not militarily deter the America, but it could be a provocation.

While increasing the number of Canadian defence contractors, increasing their revenues dramatically, and creating both domestic and export jobs, the two biggest defence expenditures facing the country will be purchased abroad. Those are the new fighter jets for the Air Force and at least twelve submarines for the Canadian Navy.

Canada has already committed to buying 16 F-35 advanced fighter jets from Lockheed-Martin in the United States, The Air Force says it needs a fleet of 88 to meet all of its commitments. The Canadian government has already put money down for 14 more F-35s, which would bring the total to 30.

However, the Swedish Defence contractor SAAB is trying to sell Ottawa on its Gripen jet, offering industrial benefits for Canada as part of the package. The Gripen is less advanced than the F-35, but perhaps adequate for some of the roles the Air Force must play.

Experts argue that having two different fleets of fighter jets would be more expensive, requiring different training for pilots and parts, and supply chains for maintenance.

While not a direct comparison, Air Canada successfully flies both Airbus passenger jets from Europe and jets from Boeing, the American competitor. Perhaps Air Canada could give the Air Force some hints on how to manage two different fleets at the same time.

The other pending major defence expenditure is the 12 submarines the Navy needs. Here, too, the competition is down to two companies. Luckily, in view of the stated aims of the new DIS, neither is American. One is a submarine being developed by a German-Norwegian consortium and the other a boat already built by a South Korean ship builder.

While no date for a decision has been set, most people think it will come this year. Time is of the essence, since warming Arctic Ocean waters are making the Northwest passage open to more ships, including Russian, Chinese and American intruders challenging Canadian sovereignty in our Arctic backyard.

The massive expenditures for the jets and the submarines will be spread out over a number of years and delivery dates. But the massive increase in defence spending within Canada will re-order the Canadian economy. And that will not be an easy job.

Canadians have grown sanguine about defence spending. A few years ago, the Canadian finance minister of the day said to an American official pressing for more defence spending from this country: “How much would you spend on defence if you lived next to the United States?”

That attitude lingers on in some places. Other Canadians feel we should be concentrating on peacekeeping and other “Good Samaritan” military expenditures. But those days are gone.

Not just because Trump is in the White House now, but because he is aiming to alter how America sees itself and acts in the world, which aligns with the interests of a Russia still waging war in Ukraine and a China with welcoming its geopolitical elevation amid America’s diminishing status as a superpower.

For Carney’s Defence Industrial Strategy to be successful Canadians will have to change their thinking. They will have to be convinced of the wisdom of Roman General Vegetius, who in the fifth century said; “If you want peace prepare for war.”

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a past president of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.