By Lori Turnbull

December 15, 2025

Prime Minister Mark Carney is on the verge of recruiting his way to the majority government that evaded him back in April.

Now that both Chris d’Entremont and Michael Ma have crossed the floor to join the Liberal caucus, all Prime Minister Carney needs is for one more MP to do the same. And if statements Monday by Energy Minister Tim Hodgson are anything to go by, this will likely happen before the House of Commons reconvenes on January 26^th.

“Let’s say I’m getting lots of inquiries,” Hodgson told a Toronto news conference.

The timing could not be better for Carney, with 2026 poised to be a political minefield that, in a minority position, the Liberals might not survive. This fall’s budget hasn’t even gone to committee yet and, when it does, the Liberals will be outnumbered with no New Democrats to help them push things through in the absence of a majority.

The trilateral joint review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) starts in July and everything — including sacking the pact altogether — is on the table. The Major Projects Office (MPO) — the cornerstone of Prime Minister Carney’s economic plan — is up and running but so far not one venture has been given the green light as a nation-building project deserving of an expedited approvals process.

Even the pipeline-focused Memorandum of Understanding that Carney signed with Albera Premier Danielle Smith remains a hypothetical concept at this point. He needs something to put in the window, whether a critical domestic project or relief from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, or else he runs the very real risk that voters will develop buyers’ remorse and that opposition parties will smell weakness and defeat the government.

Though polls have indicated that Carney still enjoys a wide lead over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in terms of personal popularity, the parties are much closer together in their levels of support, which still makes an election a risky prospect for the government.

Meanwhile, people are starting to catch on to the fact that, while the government is gearing up to lay off thousands of public servants, they are recruiting expensive star talent from the financial sector to staff up the MPO.

The timing could not be better for Carney, with 2026 poised to be a political minefield that, in a minority position, the Liberals might not survive.

It has been reported that the government is looking to “private sector sponsors” to top up the salaries of employees who go into the Major Projects Office temporarily in anticipation of returning to their old jobs. Good luck selling that at the door in the National Capital Region during a campaign.

All of this adds up to a golden opportunity for opposition parties who, at this point, have the numbers to defeat the government if they work together. And there is every reason to think that they will want to pull the plug on this government in 2026, before Prime Minister Carney has a chance to put major things, like a successful CUSMA negotiation process, in the win column.

Both the Conservatives and the New Democrats could have big moments early in 2026 that they want to capitalize on before it’s too late. For example, a strong showing for Pierre Poilievre at the leadership review in January could help to give him a new lease on life in a federal election.

Also, if the NDP were to see a bounce in the polls after crowning a new leader in March, they might be eager to get to the ballot box to try to regain official party status.

On the other hand, if the Liberals get the numbers they need to reach the majority threshold, they can weather the storms mentioned above. And, if there is no election until October of 2028, this gives Carney a longer, more stable runway to make progress on his agenda, which consists largely of medium- to long-term projects.

But a majority government for the Liberals is an absolute worst-case scenario for Mr. Poilievre, which is likely why the Conservatives are suggesting that, by recruiting new members from the Conservative benches, Carney is attempting to “cobble together a majority through undemocratic means.”

Poilievre has also accused the prime minister of practising “counterfeit Conservatism” by bringing the party closer to the centre and swiping some of the Conservatives’ ideas while he’s at it.

If the Liberals form a majority government without an election, and at the Conservatives’ expense, it will be very difficult for Poilievre to continue as leader no matter the result of the leadership review. Surely, anyone interested in the job will start to organize in earnest if and when another Conservative switches sides.

That said, given Mr. Poilievre’s limited growth potential with the Canadian voter base and his declining popularity among those who identify as Conservative, the Liberals likely want him to stay right where he is.

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau fortified his minority government through a partnership with the New Democrats and, for over two years, this allowed the Liberals to govern as though they had a majority.

Carney has eschewed the sort of inter-partisan bartering that would require him to water his centrist wine in favour of poaching Conservative MPs who find themselves in alignment with Carney’s economic plan.

Though still a political rookie, he certainly seems to be getting the hang of things.

Policy Contributing Writer Lori Turnbull is a Senior Advisor at the Institute on Governance.