In the Age of the Absurd Casus Belli, no Country is Safe

By Bob Rae
January 5, 2026
The decision by the Trump administration to launch an arrest operation in Caracas, Venezuela, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his spouse Cilia Flores, has profound consequences for all of us.
Trump’s triumphal press conference and initial media coverage from US media focused on the level of organization, discipline, technology and expertise required to extract the Maduros in the middle of the night. There was no limit to the superlatives.
But as the discussion shifts from the theatrics of capture and arrival of the co-accused in New York to the realities on the ground in Venezuela, the real purpose of the arrests became obvious.
The revelation that the United States would be “running Venezuela”, taking over the oil industry, replacing “free and fair elections” with a “judicious…very judicious transition”, fully demonstrated that the “Donroe Doctrine” outlined in the recent U.S. National Security Strategy was the most expansive expression of American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere and beyond in decades.
Any notions of international law, territorial integrity, the UN Charter, the interests and rights of other countries are now so much fluff.
The meetings in Paris this week of the Coalition of the Willing supporting Ukraine take on a whole new meaning and significance. The U.S. release of the National Security Strategy one month ago, the subsequent military buildup and invasion of Caracas, the collateral rhetoric about Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Greenland, Canada — all point a revival of Great Power unilateralism at the expense of everyone else.
In coming to the defence of Ukraine’s, Denmark’s Greenland’s and yes, Venezuela’s, sovereignty, we are defending our own.
In the time leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin released speeches and documents explaining the Russian grievance.
The Putin Doctrine is fundamentally this: Greater Russia has included Ukraine for centuries. They are spiritually, geographically and politically one. Ukrainian nationalism is a fake concept promoted by Russia’s enemies, cynically conceded by the Bolsheviks in 1917, and given fresh life by the Nazis in World War II.
The decision to grant Ukraine independence in 1991 was a betrayal, aggravated by NATO “aggression” in admitting Baltic countries, Poland and others bordering Russia. Putin further claimed that Ukraine was committing a “genocide” against Russian speakers in Ukraine, and that therefore Russia’s invasion in February 2022 was fully justified as self-defence.
It is worth noting that these arguments were all heard, considered, and dismissed as having no merit by the International Court of Justice.
The third member of the P3, China, has its own narrative and explanation to justify its treatment of Tibetans and Uyghurs, among other minorities, its claim to Taiwan, and its status as a “Great Civilization”, giving it power and status above and beyond others.
Ukraine’s fate is ours. If the Coalition of the Willing cannot find the means and the will to defend Ukraine’s interests, the message to Russia, China, the United States and others would be clear: your region is your playground, and any casus belli — no matter how ludicrous — will do.
As Canadians, our interests, values, and nationhood are directly at stake. This is not an exaggeration. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s plan for greater national solidarity, aggressive search for new markets, and a sustained effort to reach a new CUSMA agreement all make good sense, but all of us need to recognize the costs and consequences of the lawless world we are now in.
It can’t be business or politics as usual.
In coming to the defence of Ukraine’s, Denmark’s Greenland’s and yes, Venezuela’s, sovereignty, we are defending our own. Imperial habits die hard. And Canada must be at the centre of these battles because our existence as a nation at stake.
Policy Contributing Writer Bob Rae teaches and writes on law and public policy. He is a Fellow of Massey College, the Munk School at the University of Toronto, the Forum of Federations and Queen’s University. He served as Ontario’s 21st Premier, interim leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, and Canada’s Ambassador to the UN.
