Arif Lalani and Jim Mitchell

April 3, 2023

A new Middle East is taking shape.   We outline why it’s time Canada’s Middle East policy caught up, or risk being irrelevant.

First, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly deserves credit for landing a solid Indo-Pacific strategy early in her mandate. A re-aligned Middle East policy is essential not only to a successful Indo-Pacific strategy but to Canada’s global engagement.    But her latest strategy will have much more credibility if Canada is also engaged where the Indo-Pacific countries are, and the Middle East may be the most important and urgent.   China and India are both the largest trading partners for the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, ahead of the US.   China’s role in brokering the re-establishment of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia underlines the important connections between what many call “West Asia” and China and India.  In an inter-connected global order that is undergoing rapid transformation, you can’t play in one zone at a time.  Absent a complete foreign policy review, it is essential for Canada’s interest that additional regional policies be brought forward in an urgent and coherent way.

Second, what is dramatically different about the Middle East today is that Israel and the Arab states have separated the Palestinian issue from their broader (and often converging) security and prosperity interests.  For over 70 years, Canada’s policy on the Middle East has been based on two premises: first, that a resolution of the Palestinian problem and a “two-state solution” is the key to broader peace in the Middle East; and second, that Israel and the Arab oil exporting countries of the region are perpetual enemies.   Neither of these premises remains true.  In 2020, the “Abraham Accords” opened the door to normalizing diplomatic and commercial relations between Israel and its neighbours (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and Qatar).

These agreements reflect a strategic choice by Israel and Arab states, led by the Gulf, to pursue security and even prosperity on a pragmatic basis.  Just one example is the much-overlooked creation of what has been dubbed “I2U2”.  That is to say, the group consisting of Israel, India, the United States and the United Arab Emirates that was created in July 2022 on the margins of President Biden’s trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia.   Despite the awkward acronym, the grouping reflects a promising mandate for cooperation on joint investments and new initiatives in water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security.  These are all areas where Canada’s security and prosperity are engaged.   With regard to the Palestinian cause, a more engaged and realigned policy would allow Canada to speak with more credibility on this issue with all parties.

Third, the reforms taking place in Saudi Arabia are key to normalization with Israel, and even with Iran.  They are not just generational, they are civilizational.  The Abraham Accords could not have been signed without a strategic decision by Saudi Arabia  to make peace with Israel. It’s now just a matter of time.

A similar pragmatic approach is underway with Iran. At home, the reforms taking place for women’s rights, for a more moderate view of Islam, and for diversifying the economy away from carbon are the most transformational in the Kingdom’s history.  But the brutal murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Kashoggi and other less violent but equally troubling examples of repression cannot be ignored.  For decades, when the Kingdom was one of the most oppressive, closed, and anti-feminist regimes in the world, the West (Canada included) held its nose in the name of what it saw as its strategic interests.  Now that the Kingdom is finally reforming, the uneven nature of the regime has the West at a loose end.  Saudi Arabia is the second largest producer of oil in the world, and as the “custodian” of two of the holiest sites for nearly two billion Muslims, it is inevitable that these reforms will affect human rights in the world’s 50 majority Sunni countries including in Shia Iran.   It’s complicated but clear — the West has a major stake in Saudi reform.  We need to ensure that it is irreversible, and that our engagement includes a clear, outcome-related policy on human rights.  Tweeting from the sidelines will neither help the reformers nor weaken their opponents.

Finally, the global reach of the Gulf states means they will be a key to Canada’s global priorities, including the shift to a green economy, addressing food insecurity in the developing world (given the Gulf’s large dependence on food imports and its growing development assistance programmes), cyber security and technology – these are now areas where the Gulf countries can either lead or obstruct.

For all these reasons, we believe the government of Canada should undertake an urgent review of its policy toward the Middle East that would be based on the following guiding principles:

1. Recognize that the region is fundamentally changing, and that Canada’s interests are broad; that peace between Israel and the Arab states can be pursued on its own track, at the pace being set by the parties themselves.
2. Support the vision for peace reflected in the Abraham Accords by exploiting opportunities for Canada to invest in its own prosperity through cooperation with Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and others as they join.   We could even look to join the I2U2.
3. Engage with all the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) fully, honestly and forcefully – including returning an ambassador to Saudi Arabia who can speak forcefully on the basis of a new Middle East policy that pursues both human rights and the broader economic and security interests of Canadians; and appoint a Special Envoy to the GCC so as to get ahead of similar plans by the EU and potentially others.
4. Leverage relations in the new Middle East to strengthen our relationship with India and to counter the growing influence of China.

As some fret about Canada’s exclusion from AUKUS – the new US, UK, and Australia alliance in the Pacific – Canada’s engagement in “West Asia” has the potential for greater consequence and significant influence with allies.    But Canada needs to update its playbook, or risk being irrelevant in the region and beyond.

Arif Lalani is Distinguished Fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy; and a former Canadian Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Canada’s first Special Envoy to the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation. 

Jim Mitchell is an Adjunct Professor at Carleton University and a former Canadian diplomat.