By Lori Turnbull

November 12, 2026

Since the federal election in April 2025, Pierre Poilievre has lost eight caucus members through a combination of resignations and floor crossings, including Parry Sound-Muskoka MP Scott Aitchison, who will officially resign his seat by the end of the year.

The Conservatives have lost all seven by-elections in the 45^th Parliament, apart from the one Poilievre won himself, Battle River-Crowfoot. But the fact that he needed a by-election to get a seat in the House of Commons in the first place after losing his own makes it difficult to put a triumphant spin on it.

There are six fresh by-elections scheduled for December 7^th, and now more than ever, Pierre Poilivre needs a win.

There have been several reports in recent months pointing to the state of frustration inside the Conservative caucus and the movement more broadly.

No wonder they are frustrated. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s lead over Poilievre as preferred prime minister has grown to 34 points in the latest Nanos poll. As MP Melissa Lantsman put it back in September, the Party is not in “the position we want to be in.”

The Conservatives need a plausible path to victory, and as long as Mark Carney is prime minister and Poilievre is leader, they’re not likely to find one. Meanwhile, it’s possible that more MPs will resign, which would only create more vacancies for Carney and the Liberals to fill. Losing begets losing until the streak is decisively reversed.

The six byelections taking place on December 7^th are as follows:

• Brantford—Brant South, Ontario
• Laurier—Sainte-Marie, Québec
• Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, Québec
• Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton, Québec
• Scarborough North, Ontario
• Yorkton—Melville, Saskatchewan

They will serve as an important litmus test for Poilievre and his party.  It’s not just about winning seats, which they may or may not do. It is also important for them to achieve a respective showing overall, even in ridings where they don’t come first.

If the six byelections that the Conservatives have lost over the past year and a half are any indication, they have cause to be worried. In only one of them, North Vancouver-Capilano, did the Conservative candidate win more than 20 per cent of the popular vote and, in all six, the Conservative share of the vote since 2025 declined.

The Conservatives held two of the six vacant seats that will be filled in December: Brantford-Brant South and Yorkton-Melville. One strategy could be to essentially phone it in in the other four ridings, which are likely out of reach for them anyway, and go all in on trying to keep what they had.

Campaign finance laws put a cap on what parties can spend based on the number of ridings they are contesting but do not direct them with regard to where they spend the money.

The Conservatives need a plausible path to victory, and as long as Mark Carney is prime minister and Poilievre is leader, they’re not likely to find one.

According to the Preliminary Election Expense Limits for Registered Political Parties released by Elections Canada, the total maximum spend for a party contesting all six ridings is $645,859.50. If the Conservatives want to dump most or all of it into holding on to Brantford Brant-South and Yorkton-Melville, they can. And maybe they should.

Brantford Brant-South is vacant due to the departure of Conservative MP Larry Brock. The leader’s office did itself no favours when they decided to appoint Kevin Davis, mayor of Brantford, as the Conservative candidate without holding a nomination contest.

This has led Dave Carrol, a longtime Conservative, broadcaster, and community leader who had been hoping to compete for the nomination, to run as an independent candidate.

Now, the Conservative voters in the riding have two candidates to pick from, which might increase the likelihood that Liberal candidate Joy O’Donnell, who won more than 40 per cent of the vote when she ran against Brock in 2025, will come up the middle and win. If this happens, Mr. Poilievre will have himself to blame for blowing a real opportunity to beat the Liberals in a competitive riding.

Yorkton-Melville, a Saskatchewan riding that was held by Conservative MP Cathy Wagantall since 2015 until her resignation earlier this fall, is the kind of riding that the Conservatives almost can’t lose. Ms. Wagantall won with 77 per cent of the popular vote in 2025 and by sweeping margins in previous elections. It’s a blue riding, through and through.

So, a mere win for the Conservatives here would not be enough to justify popping the champagne. In fact, they could lose a significant amount of the popular vote and still win, but partisans would likely read such a scenario as a loss.

The Conservatives need a win in Brantford Brant-South and a decisive win in Yorkton-Melville, the kind that leaves the competition in their dust, in order to give caucus, the movement at large, and the Canadian public assurance that the party is able to offer a clear and competitive alternative to Mark Carney’s Liberals.

But even if this does not happen, Mr. Poilievre will likely keep going as leader due to the stronghold he seems to have over the party and the absence of prospective competitors willing to make a run for his job as long as Carney remains so popular.

Though the caucus has the option of using the Reform Act to call a leadership review, they seem more inclined to exit themselves rather than force a conversation about leadership. As long as this continues, Mark Carney will keep winning.

Policy Columnist Dr. Lori Turnbull is a professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.