By Kevin Budning and Lilit Klein

July 7, 2026

Canada is attending this year’s NATO Summit with more confidence than at any point in recent memory — and with good reason.

The past year alone has seen Canada spend over $60 billion on defence. Canada has met NATO’s longstanding benchmark of spending 2% of GDP on defence and has endorsed the alliance’s further commitment of investing 3.5% in core defence over the next decade.

Yet the central challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Canadian delegation in Ankara will not be simply showcasing what has been accomplished. It will be convincing allies that Canada’s renewed commitment to defence marks the beginning of a lasting strategic shift, cementing Canada’s place as a trusted, reliable partner in the alliance.

Doing so will require a combination of salt and sizzle: clearly articulating the progress we have made while also putting forth a vision for enhance collaboration and integration in the years ahead.

The progress made in such a short period is significant. The Government has improved the pay, benefits, and quality of life of Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel and has made notable gains in expanding the recruitment and retention of its primary and secondary reserves, marking the highest number of enrolments in more than three decades.

Major procurement, led by the new Defence Investment Agency, has also pushed forward generational projects, including: the acquisition of the $2.6 billion HIMARS rocket systems; the advancement the $22 billion River-class destroyer program; and, as announced by the Prime Minister on July 6th ahead of the summit, the procurement of up to 12 conventionally powered submarines from German/Norwegian TKMS — at an estimated worth of up to $100 billion over the contract’s lifetime.

Selecting TKMS places Canada within an established and expanding NATO submarine ecosystem, with approximately 70% of the alliance’s conventional submarine fleet based on TKMS designs, significantly enhancing interoperability with European allies.

Canada’s sustained operational and strategic contributions must also be highlighted at the summit. Most importantly, this includes more than 2000 CAF personnel deployed in Latvia under Operation REASSURANCE, where Canada serves as the framework nation for NATO’s Multinational Brigade on the alliance’s eastern flank.

The Canadian government has also committed over $2 billion in military assistance to Ukraine in the past 12 months to help fight Russian aggression, now totalling $8.5 billion. Its participation in NATO maritime operations and its growing role in Arctic surveillance and sovereignty enforcement further demonstrate that Canada is contributing to NATO security in meaningful ways.

Canada’s sizzle, then, will need to showcase why we are a viable and reliable long-term partner for defence investment, industrial collaboration, and strategic cooperation.

Carney’s first priority should be to emphasize Canada’s deliberate diversification beyond the U.S. and toward European and Indo-Pacific Allies, as outlined in the Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS).

Canada’s Europe pivot offers tremendous opportunity.

The E5 – UK, Germany, France, Poland, and Italy, Europe’s biggest defence spenders – increasingly mirror Canada’s priorities. If Carney leans into this grouping at the Summit, coupled with yesterday’s submarine announcement, Canada may begin to be seen as the North American anchor of a NATO shifting toward European leadership.

What distinguishes Canada lies beyond spending: deep expertise, strategic geography, abundant natural resource, and a stable democracy, now finally matched by political will and economic incentives that put real skin in the game.

The tide is already moving in this direction, with Canada becoming the only non-European country to participate in the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative and Canada’s successful bid to host the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank (DSRB) as compelling foundations to build on.

Under SAFE, Canada successfully negotiated its 80% participation cap, far above the original 35% benchmark for third countries. And, Canada was chosen unanimously to host the defence bank.

Both examples show Canada’s valued standing with Europe and reflect our allies’ trust in Ottawa to play an important role in collective defence.

The Carney government needs to capitalize on this momentum, underscoring opportunities for two-way transatlantic trade, industrial cooperation, and defence investment in Canadian industry.

Deeper integration should make Canada an increasingly attractive and stable partner for procurement and co-production — ranging from established capabilities such as armoured vehicles to emerging strengths in artificial intelligence, aerospace systems, and advanced sensor and radar technologies, to natural resources such as critical minerals.

But Canada’s desire to deepen ties with Europe cannot ignore the elephant in the room: the United States.

On the one hand, the U.S. has signalled that it wants the alliance to take on more responsibility and share the defence burden. On the other hand, the U.S. has expressed disappointment with Canada’s defence and security diversification away from Washington.

Navigating this will be tricky, but if done properly, Canada can better position itself as a winner on both fronts.

By increasing defence spending and diversifying its defence partnerships, Canada has an opportunity to make these commitments mutually beneficial. Washington will receive the greater burden-sharing it has long demanded, while Canada gains credibility among U.S. and other allies – and with it, a stronger voice in shaping the decisions that influence its security.

A founding NATO member, Canada arrived at this summit having met the alliance’s spending target for the first time in decades.

But spending alone will not be the panacea for decades of underinvestment in Canada’s defence. Ottawa must also contend with allies who are themselves increasing defence spending and may remain skeptical of Canada’s long-term commitment after years of lagging behind much of the alliance.

What distinguishes Canada lies beyond spending: deep expertise, strategic geography, abundant natural resource, and a stable democracy, now finally matched by political will and economic incentives that put real skin in the game.

In Ankara, Canada must show both the salt of what it has already accomplished and the sizzle of where it intends to go.

Dr. Kevin Budning is the Director of Scientific Research at the Conference of Defence Associations (CDA) Institute

Dr. Lilit Klein is the Editor, Research & Publications at the CDA Institute.