By The Scowcroft Group

March 12, 2026

President Donald Trump’s Mar. 11 comments that the U.S. has “won” the war with Iran and the conflict will end “soon” may reflect a desire to look for quick off-ramps as markets clamor for relief (oil prices briefly shot to nearly $120 per barrel Monday) and the war further sours his approval ratings ahead of November midterms that will likely be dominated by affordability.

Trump’s comments, however, likely do not reflect the realities facing U.S. security forces and regional assets, the Iranian regime, and Israel’s leadership. On the domestic political front, note that nearly every US president in recent memory has received a 10-15% bump in approval at the start of a war, even when the public has little notion of why it’s happening (e.g., Reagan in Grenada, Bush 41 in Panama), but Trump remains well underwater and a majority disapprove of the Iran campaign.

Even if the White House wanted to back down, Iran’s retaliation capability is the key deciding factor. Until the U.S. sufficiently degrades the potential for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, hit critical infrastructure in the region, target U.S. forces and vessels, and threaten the safety of U.S. diplomats and civilians in the region, the U.S. military will likely need to stay engaged. This probably delays any attempt to “TACO” as Trump cannot credibly claim victory while Iranian missiles and drones are flying.

The Iranian regime will likely endure. The accession of slain former leader Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as supreme leader and Iran’s retaliatory strikes across the region signal that the regime remains committed to surviving; inflicting costs on the U.S., Israel, and allies; and emerging from the war with some ability to deter future attacks. Even amid reports that the new supreme leader is injured, the regime is likely stable given it is internally cohesive, ideologically committed, deeply embedded, militarily capable, and has a strategic doctrine that plans ahead for leadership decapitation.

Israel likely sees benefits in the conflict continuing. Even if the U.S. elects to take an off- ramp, Israeli strikes against Iranian proxy forces and other assets in the region could continue unless Trump directly tells Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to stop.

If the war continues, what are the expected impacts? Hormuz must be opened before any real oil-price relief is felt, and any risk of strikes will keep maritime insurance rates high (the announced $20 billion in reinsurance from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation is not a sufficient backstop), extending market uncertainty.

As long as Iran retains the capability, attacks will continue to damage energy and utility infrastructure in the region, with the effects reaching across global markets. As the U.S. midterms approach, Team Trump will be increasingly worried about the impacts on U.S. prices, given that affordability is a top voter concern. IEA member states agreed Mar. 11 to the largest-ever release of emergency oil reserves (400 million barrels).

But this is only a stopgap measure, and, while this is more than twice the amount released after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022,  in proportion to the scale of the oil market disruption it is actually less significant (Russia exported nearly 5 million bpd of crude and condensate compared to nearly 15 million bpd disrupted in the Gulf).

The Scowcroft Group is a Washington, D.C.-based international business advisory firm founded by the late Brent Scowcroft, former National Security Advisor to Presidents George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford. Its principals generously provide Policy’s regular Letter from Washington and Scowcroft Group Snapshot posts.