By Don Newman

March 21, 2026

Sometime during the evening of April 13^th, Mark Carney will quite likely find out that his majority in the House of Commons is secure.

The results of the upcoming federal by-elections in University-Rosedale and Scarborough West in Toronto will confirm that. If, a few hours later, a Liberal victory in the Montreal-adjacent riding of Terrebonne is also confirmed, that will be the icing on the cake.

The recent addition of Lori Idlout from the New Democratic Party to the Liberal caucus means Carney only needs the two safe Toronto seats to have a razor-thin absolute majority in the Commons.

Terrebonne will be a tougher fight. The by-election there was ordered by the Supreme Court of Canada after the Liberals won the seat by one vote over the Bloc Québécois, but a mistake by Elections Canada forced a rerun.

But two victories or three won’t really change what has to happen next. The Liberals will soon mark their first year in office since the April 2025 election.

That year has featured rising support in the polls, three Conservative MPs and one New Democrat crossing the floor, and Carney adding to his reputation as the only central bank governor in history to serve in two countries with a well-received speech in Davos.

Carney’s international travel has been peripatetic. He has been from Australia in the South to Norway in the North, strengthening alliances and trying to develop new trade partnerships.

He has signed trade deals, military procurement deals and Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships with a number of countries and the European Union. This creates a national governance narrative distinct from Donald Trump’s daily output of drama and destruction.

But what it also means is that Canadian businesses need to develop new markets for their products in an effort to diversify Canada’s trade dependence on the Unites States.

At home, the Carney government has announced major projects and acquisitions in the defence sector, much of it in Northern Canada. In March alone, it unveiled  $40 billion, including more than $35 billion in federal investments to upgrade the North American Air Defence and Space facilities as part of a NORAD modernization plan.

The new spending commitments are impressive. As is the submission of four major infrastructure projects in the North to the Major Projects Office.

But the biggest test for the Carney Liberals, and one fraught with national unity and economic development implications, lies ahead.

Last November, the federal government and the province of Alberta signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that cleared away many of the restrictive regulatory policies brought in by the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau that had fuelled anger in the province.

Depending on what unfolds in the months to come, July 1st might be more newsworthy for federal-provincial than bilateral drama.

The MOU contained many environmental, Indigenous reconciliation and other proposals. But in Alberta, with Premier Danielle Smith leading the way, the MOU has been hailed mainly for enabling the construction of a second pipeline carrying Alberta oil sands bitumen through British Columbia to a port on the West Coast for shipment to energy markets in Asia.

The context of this file has changed drastically in recent weeks, with Donald Trump’s war against Iran having spread across the Middle East, choked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, spiked oil prices and underscored the need for reliable energy supply, a point made by Smith not long after the conflict began.

Modelling by the research group Enverus reported in The Financial Times on Saturday shows that Canadian oil producers could face a windfall of up to C$90bn ($65.6bn) if crude prices stay at recent levels — sometimes hitting $120 a barrel — with Canadian companies generating an extra C$25-C$30bn in revenue for every $10 rise this year.

But the West Coast Oil Pipeline needs a viable proposal, which the Alberta government is currently developing, and a sponsor to build it.

It also needs the participation of the proposed Oil Sands Pathways Alliance — a consortium struck in 2022 among the country’s five largest oil sands producers to achieve ‘net-zero by 2050’— to build and operate a carbon capture and storage facility.

The price tag for that entire project is estimated at $16.5 Billion. The companies in the alliance are the five major oil sands producers: Imperial Oil, Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor, Cenovus, ConocoPhillips.

The problem is that, so far, the major pipeline companies say they are not interested in being the bitumen pipeline sponsor. And the Pathways Alliance companies say they need government funding to finance their elaborate carbon-capture proposal.

All of this could come to a head on July 1st, when the MOU says Alberta must submit its completed proposal for the project to the Major Projects Office for fast-tracking. That date has been the focus of much anxiety over the status of the CUSMA trade agreement as the deadline for the six-year review of the deal amid Donald Trump’s trade war.

Depending on what unfolds in the months to come, July 1st might be more newsworthy for federal-provincial than bilateral drama.

Premier Smith says her government will be the project sponsor if no private sector company or consortium comes forward. That his not what the Ottawa-Alberta MOU envisions, but that could be overlooked in the short term.

The Pathways difficulties are also a problem. The agreement says the pipeline — even if built — cannot start transmitting bitumen until the first phase of the carbon capture project is operational.

The MOU was hailed as a breakthrough in what, under the previous Liberal government, were often frosty relations between Ottawa and Alberta. Now, with deadlines approaching, the original euphoria could evaporate.

That is particularly concerning, since problems with the agreement could help build support for an Alberta independence referendum. It still seems almost impossible that the referendum would succeed, but the higher the public support for it, the more the provincial government will have to cater to those sentiments.

And that will create problems for the rest of Canada, particularly for the federal government. The results of the April 13th by-elections will quite likely provide a boost to the Carney Government.

But they won’t solve all of its problems.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a past president of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.