By Bob Rae

March 19, 2026

Two recent tweets by Donald Trump on Truth Social reflect a dangerous unravelling of his Middle East war strategy, to the extent that there was one.

The first is about the refusal of many countries to send military personnel or equipment as part of operation “Epic Fury”:

“The United States has been informed by most of our NATO “Allies” that they don’t want to get involved with our Military Operation against the Terrorist Regime of Iran, in the Middle East, this, despite the fact that almost every Country strongly agreed with what we are doing, and that Iran cannot, in any way, shape, or form, be allowed to have a Nuclear Weapon. I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need. Fortunately, we have decimated Iran’s Military — Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti-Aircraft and Radar is gone and perhaps, most importantly, their Leaders, at virtually every level, are gone, never to threaten us, our Middle Eastern Allies, or the World, again! Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

The second missive is about yesterday’s Israeli attack on a major gas field in Iran, revealing a significant fracture in the US/Israeli strategy:

“Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar – In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

On the first one, about NATO, I am reminded of the signoff from Max Jackson, a radio sports broadcaster. “If you want to have a friend, be one!” President Trump’s contempt for his allies and partners has been on display since he took office. His tariff policies have put the global economy at risk, and he entered the war in Iran with only one ally, with an incoherent strategy, and no sense of what Iran’s response could be.

The vitriol he expresses toward allies follows attacks on the sovereignty of Greenland, Denmark, and, yes, Canada.

He has sent Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the recently circumspect vice president, JD Vance, to support the autocratic Viktor Orban in Hungary.

He has withdrawn support to Ukraine, unilaterally lifted sanctions on Russia, and given Putin a huge boost.

President Trump sounds surprised and offended. He should not be. NATO is a defensive alliance. It is supposed to work by consensus. If President Trump wanted to create a NATO initiative, discussions should have started months ago. And he would have had to justify the “imminent threat” precondition to garner the support of countries that are bound by the rule of law and the treaties and conventions they have signed.

The message on the Israel/US strategy on the gas attacks in Iran, with consequences for Qatar, and other Gulf States, reflects the divergent objectives of President Trump and PM Netanyahu.

Netanyahu’s popularity grows in wartime. The US President’s approval rating is not getting such a bump. One sees a benefit in chaos. Trump is sounding increasingly desperate.

He is in midstream, with no off-ramp in sight. Whichever route he follows will be difficult.

The choices are not entirely in anyone’s control. The Gulf States, Russia, Ukraine, NATO, China and India all have a stake.  Not just oil, but the wider supply chains of agriculture, critical minerals, semiconductors, and beyond. The affordability implications are expanding by the day.

As Barbara Tuchman points out in “The Guns of August” — well worth a re-read — no country was planning a long-term war as Europe stumbled into World War I. High Society in Washington went to watch the first battles of the Civil War hoping to be entertained on a Sunday afternoon. They came away with the realization that war is not a tea party.

The challenge for middle powers such as Canada is real. Prime Minister Carney has set out the direction in the Davos speech: talk to others, build coalitions, build stronger alliances. Now comes the execution, both at home and globally.

It is a challenging time, and we need all shoulders to the wheel. These are indeed the times that try our souls.

Policy Columnist Bob Rae teaches and writes on law and public policy. He is the Visitor of Massey College, a Distinguished Fellow at the Munk School at the University of Toronto, as well as a Senior Fellow at the Forum of Federations and a Matthews Fellow in public policy at Queen’s University. He served as Ontario’s 21st Premier, interim leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, and Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations.