By Fen Osler Hampson

July 15, 2025

Canada faces an urgent, nation-defining imperative: to develop its vast northern territories not only as an economic opportunity but as a critical assertion of Canada’s sovereignty in the face of renewed threats from its southern neighbour, and amid the growing threat of China and Russia in the Arctic.

The spectre of a rekindled Manifest Destiny, once a 19th-century doctrine of American territorial expansion, has resurfaced in the rhetoric and policies of an American president who openly questions Canada’s autonomy and economic independence.

Nearly 90% of Canadians live within 160 km, or 100 miles, of the US border. Our country has little strategic depth — a military term meaning the distance between a country’s front-line boundary and its population centres.

Canada’s lack of strategic depth leaves us vulnerable to economic and military coercion, political pressure, and challenges to our sovereignty. Developing the North offers a path to diversify the economy, secure national interests, and build resilience and strategic depth against all outside threats.

Notwithstanding current sensitivities about Russia’s appalling and unjustified aggression against Ukraine, there are useful historical parallels between the vulnerabilities Canada now faces on its southern borders and in its exposed North and the threats Russia once faced from hostile neighbours in earlier times. Russia, for better or worse, might not now exist as a national entity if it had not undertaken the economic development and integration of Siberia, especially in the 19th and 20th centuries.

In previous centuries, Russia, a vast and sparsely populated country, faced existential threats from its neighbours — recurring invasions from the Ottoman Empire, Napoleon’s invasion in 1812, the Russo-Japanese war, the devastating battles of the First World War, the cataclysm of the Second World War and border disputes with China.

In response to these threats, Russia undertook a massive, state-led effort to transform Siberia, a territory it had taken control over beginning in the 16th century, from a remote, sparsely populated hinterland into an economic and strategic frontier. The development of Siberia helped secure Russia’s future by expanding its industrial and economic base. It also created strategic depth during wartime and served as a bulwark against European and other great powers.

Though the comparison with Russia in earlier times should obviously not be overstated, Canada confronts a similar kind of territorial challenge today. Trump’s rhetoric and policies echo historical Manifest Destiny ambitions to absorb or dominate Canada’s vast territory and resources. The North is no longer just a region rich in minerals, hydroelectric potential, and land. Its development under our control is a strategic necessity.

Northern development can reduce Canada’s overreliance on southern markets. The North’s wealth in critical minerals — lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth minerals — positions Canada to be a global supplier for the green energy transition, electric vehicles, and advanced technologies.

The North is no longer just a region rich in minerals, hydroelectric potential, and land. Its development under our control is a strategic necessity.

Hydroelectric power, which is abundant in northern Ontario, Manitoba, the Yukon, and Quebec, also offers renewable energy that can power new industries and data centres, leveraging Canada’s naturally cold climate to reduce operating costs. These data centres can anchor Canada’s digital economy, attract investment and innovation and reduce our dependence on foreign cloud computing services.

However, we should clearly avoid the many pitfalls of Russia’s repressive Soviet-era Siberian development. Although massive state investment in infrastructure and extraction turned Siberia into an economic powerhouse, fueling industrial growth and export revenues, many projects were environmental disasters and unsustainable without massive ongoing state subsidies. Social costs were borne by marginalized communities, including Russia’s Indigenous peoples and other ethnic minorities.

The overarching lesson for Canada is that resource abundance alone does not ensure lasting prosperity; success requires the inclusion and active leadership of local communities, private-sector participation and prioritizing economic viability and social responsibility in sustainable northern development.

Provincial and territorial governments together with Canada’s Indigenous, Metis and Inuit communities are critical actors in this transformation. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew clearly shows that he gets it. He is offering a vision of northern development that includes Indigenous partnership and economic diversification. His pitch for a “One Canada Trade Corridor” aims to revitalize the Port of Churchill and establish new trade routes that will reduce dependence on US markets.

Quebec’s comprehensive and strategic Plan nord also offers a model of ambitious resource development in key sectors like energy, mining and forestry though it has been criticized for inadequate environmental safeguards and consultation with First Nations. However, it is undeniable that the province’s investments in hydroelectric power and mineral processing have generated substantial economic benefits for local communities and the province as a whole.

Other provinces, including Ontario, should learn from Quebec and Manitoba’s experience in northern development.

The lessons from Siberia underscore the importance of infrastructure and economic development to assert a country’s sovereignty over its vast northern territories. However, Canada must tailor its development plans to a 21st century context: building all-weather roads, rail links, and digital networks that connect remote communities and resources to global markets.

Addressing new climate change challenges, such as melting permafrost, will require highly innovative construction techniques and sustainable transportation solutions.

Canada’s northern development is not just an economic but a strategic necessity. The North is Canada’s secret weapon against our covetous southern neighbour. The time to wield it is now.

The provinces and territories must lead, Ottawa must support, and all Canadians must recognize that the future of the nation depends on the promise of the North.

Policy Contributing Writer Fen Osler Hampson, FRSC, is the Chancellor’s Professor and Professor of International Affairs at Carleton University, and President of the World Refugee & Migration Council. He is co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-US Relations.