By Don Newman

October 31, 2025

On November 4th, we will find out more details of the Carney government’s plans to develop the Canadian economy with less reliance on the United States and more independence and sovereignty for the country.

Shortly after the budget speech is delivered by Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, we will find out if the government has been successful in convincing enough Members of Parliament that Canada is at a “hinge” moment and generational, transformative change is necessary.

So far, it does not appear that the Liberals have. Three opposition votes are needed to pass the budget. One way or another, those votes will probably be found. The prospect of another election if the budget is defeated means some Opposition MPs will find a way to be absent and not vote so the budget will pass. But so far, the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party have been reacting to the pending budget with the same, tired, worn-out demands for things they want to see in the document in order to support it.

As I’ve previously argued, Prime Minister Mark Carney has not been able to sound a clarion call that change is necessary. Instead of rewriting the script so the country is demanding the changes he thinks are required, the Opposition parties have been trying to shape the debate around the budget on issues that are important but don’t reflect the urgency of the moment. At any other time, the cost of living may have been the signature issue for a budget to address.

But at this moment in Canadian history, how the economy has to be redirected to get be more self-sufficient, how exports have to be sent to new markets, how the infrastructure to do that has to be built and financed and how a massive increase in defence sending can be accommodated as new planes, ships and the personnel to operate them are acquired is what politicians and all Canadians should be seized with.

Maybe some of the urgency of the moment will be transmitted by the Prime Minister and other cabinet ministers in the budget debate. That could convince some Opposition members to let the budget pass. But the reality is that because the Liberals are three votes short of controlling the Commons the legislative road forward is going to be difficult. Even if the budget is approved the legislation implementing its most controversial proposed could become bogged down in the House of in Commons or in Common’s committees. If that happens, the Liberals may decide to ask the Governor-General for an election to try for a majority government.

Other governments have tried that. It has had mixed success. The most recent example is Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government in 2021. When the votes were counted across the country, nothing much had changed. The Liberals still had a government, but it was still a minority. That happened as well to Stephen Harper and his conservatives in 2008. Although when Harper tried again in 2012, he was rewarded with a majority.

The state of Canadian politics and the regional voting patterns that continually return members of the same party mean minority governments are becoming the norm. There are times when a minority result can be a good thing, although if minority governments are the “new normal”, new rules on confidence votes in the Commons will have to adopted. But for now, the current rules place the Carney government in danger. Given the geopolitical tensions in the world amid Donald Trump and his trade war, that means the country is in danger as well.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a past president of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.