Jagmeet Singh at the Toronto Pride Parade in 2017/Creative Commons

By Lori Turnbull

February 23, 2024

In an era of celebrity politics, in which brand is everything, a lot hinges on the personalities of political party leaders and their capacity to connect with them on the issues that matter most.

These are things that cannot be achieved merely by policy competence, fiscal literacy, or popularity among partisan colleagues. To be a political game changer, a leader needs the kind of personal appeal that extends beyond the party’s traditional base to generate excitement in the population and a sense of hope for the future. Political science texts refer to this broadly as charisma. Some might call it swagger. It is a somewhat mysterious but undeniable “je ne sais quoi” that makes a person stand out in a crowd.

But what happens when none of the leaders is hitting the high notes with respect to likeability and inspiration? What if none of them is particularly appealing to voters? The decline in voter turnout suggests that this is a problem in Canada, as does the fact the leaders of the two largest parties seem to repel as many people as they attract.

In the lead-up to the 2025 election, or whenever the next federal vote will be, there is no question that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is the frontrunner and the leader with the most momentum. But that doesn’t mean he’s got the special sauce. In order to get to this point in his political career, Poilievre has had to overcome a severe likeability challenge. He became the leader of the party in September of 2022 despite concerns that, while he was the overwhelming favourite among Conservative Party members at the time (a good chunk of whom signed up to support him), the aforementioned likeability challenge would make it difficult for him to grow the party and to be successful in a general election.

Much of 2023 was about rebranding Poilievre and changing his image to broaden his appeal. He traded his suit and glasses for t-shirts, jeans, and contact lenses. He released ads on television and social media that show him in tender moments with his family, with his wife’s voice in the background to answer the question: “Who is Pierre Poilievre?” Her description of a husband who “gets” her and who is also the “common sense leader that the country needs” is meant to create a window for Poilievre to show up differently than he has in the past. After all, part of his likeability challenge has been that, for nearly 20 years, Canadians on whose radar Poilievre has been have known him as a question period attacker with a touch of a superiority complex who seemed to lack any concern whatsoever for whether anyone liked him.  Now that he’s the leader, that must change.

Justin Trudeau, on the other hand, oozes star power. But, somewhat paradoxically, now he’s the one with the likeability problem. In November of 2015, just after winning a majority government in the general election in October of that year, Trudeau’s approval ratings were around 60%, give or take a few points depending on which poll you read. An extrovert by nature, Trudeau is a very effective campaigner because of his ability to energize a room and bring people toward him. However, over the past decade and particularly in the last five years, some of Justin Trudeau’s unforced errors have dented his likeability and sullied his political brand.

Potential political rock stars are self-selecting out of the arena every day, if only to avoid the zero-sum occupational hazard of likeability shrinkage.

His handling of the SNC Lavalin fiasco, the resurfaced blackface photos, the trip to Tofino on Truth and Reconciliation Day, and the lavish vacations when so many Canadians are struggling have been entirely off-brand for someone who has consistently campaigned on being empathic and virtuous. These days, polls indicate that Trudeau’s negative ratings outweigh his positives: a Leger Poll released in November of 2023 showed that 61% of respondents had a negative impression of Prime Minister Trudeau and 63% were dissatisfied with his government.

Though Poilievre’s efforts at rebranding seem to have moved the dial with some Canadians and have increased his electability, he’s still a polarizing figure. An Abacus Data poll in November of 2023 showed increases both in Canadians’ familiarity with Poilievre and in positive impressions of him. However, when it came to overall impressions of Poilievre, 22% reported being “very negative,” 11% reported being “mostly negative”, and 21% said that they were “neutral” – not exactly a ringing endorsement. Despite his growing popularity, he is not a unifying visionary with the capacity to unite the country.

New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh used to outshine them all for likeability, but it’s all relative. In 2021, an Ipsos poll found him the only federal leader that was “viewed more positive lately than negatively, with 45 percent approval versus 39 percent disapproval.”  Even then, Trudeau had the highest negative rating at 53%. Darrell Bricker of Ipsos Public Affairs identified Singh as the biggest threat to Trudeau given his popularity, but the threat has never really materialized.

Singh’s likeability has not registered at the polls in the form of a bigger seat count, which suggests that perhaps he’s not really all that likeable. He’s just more likeable than the rest. This is not a high threshold to meet and does not mean that he has any broad and/or transformative appeal. All in all, none of the leaders – even the most popular one – is appealing broadly enough to bridge the divides that define our political landscape.

There are a few causal variables to point to when assessing how we got here. For one thing, leadership races are now about who signs up the most members – regardless of the frailty of their commitment – as opposed to who can win over the largest number of party loyalists. Further, the level of toxicity in politics today is, no doubt, a deterrent to rational people who might want to run for office to make the country a better place but do not want to put themselves and their family through the agony of public life. We need to think hard about what the decline of civility in politics is costing us. Potential political rock stars are self-selecting out of the arena every day, if only to avoid the zero-sum occupational hazard of likeability shrinkage.

Voter turnout in the 2021 election was a disappointing 62.3%. This speaks to a sense of apathy with the system overall but also to a lack of enthusiasm for the options on the ballot. This is not only unfortunate. It is dangerous for democracy if voters become habitually disengaged through indifference to the choices before them.

We need to think critically about whether shifts toward more “democratized” leadership selection processes are yielding the results we want and need. And whether we can find ways to recruit the best and brightest minds to govern the country and inspire us all as we navigate a most difficult time.

Contributing Writer Lori Turnbull, co-winner of the Donner Prize for Political Writing, is a Professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.