The Scowcroft Group

January 18, 2026

Donald Trump’s latest bizarre attack on a NATO ally – one that had the highest per-capita casualties of any allied army in responding to the 9/11 attacks – is built on transparent lies about American security.

It showcases his avarice and breathtaking disregard for the world’s most durable alliance — one that has kept the peace for over 70 years.

Trump’s surprise (to his own officials) declaration of 10% tariffs on European countries until they capitulate in support of a US takeover of Greenland likely has two goals:

• As a backdoor move on a Trump 1.0 agenda item – withdrawing the US from NATO —by creating a failure point in the alliance that Trump may blame on Europe. US law and politics make it unlikely that this gambit will be upheld by courts, but Trump is seldom inhibited by the rule of law, and it is unclear what authority he might be using.
• It is an offensive (forward leaning) trade move to head-off perceived failure of his trade policy in advance of a Supreme Court ruling that may well limit his IEEPA tariff authority, bringing down the central theme of his isolationist economic policy.

Trump’s first instinct when confronted with defeat, a direct challenge or bad polling is to change the subject and distract. Markets have affirmed his refrain that tariffs are less inflationary than predicted and trade activism is his favorite political safe space, despite the stunning lack of success on his two main goals: onshoring US manufacturing  and China behavior modification.

Neither the EU nor UK will capitulate and seriously engage in dismembering the sovereignty of a NATO member state. (Economic interests offer game theory space for compromise; sovereignty is not divisible – something any “dealmaker” should understand.)

Even a performative extension of the idea of a “working group” on Greenland is unlikely before Trump’s February 1 tariff coercion deadline. That temporizing device was tried following Danish and Greenland diplomacy last week. It is now an obvious failure as a coping strategy.

Trump may TACO, but if the goal here really is NATO dismemberment, that will be obvious if the 10% duties go into effect. Expect US importers to seek a temporary restraining order resulting in another round of confusion and delays at East Coast ports. Also, EU countries not designated will gleefully aid transshipments from those tariff-targeted nations. Legally, this action has even less merit than Trump’s Liberation Day leveraging of IEEPA, and no other statues (including Sec. 232) are likely to be approved by US courts to support such duties.

As was true with the original Liberation Day duties on Europe, expect affected capitals to respond crisply with their own retaliation lists targeting US products and services. But their incentive structure has now shifted. The EU efforts to mollify Trump last year have humiliated European and UK leadership and failed to protect transatlantic interests. They need to respond in the only currency Trump recognizes. Ask Beijing how that should work.

This unwarranted and simply ignorant assault on the fundamentals of the NATO alliance are proof of concept that Trump presents the greatest threat to global security since the Second World War.  And no: the GOP-controlled House and Senate will not deploy our vaunted “checks and balances” to stop him. It’s the political arithmetic. Trump loyalists make up roughly a third of Republicans voters. Only retiring Congress members will face him down. The only restraint on his worst instincts is fiscal policy: Congress will not approve a Greenland purchase, estimated at nearly a trillion U.S. dollars.

The Greenland episode powerfully ratifies Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Trump strategy: Politely disengage from him while protecting national interests by creating options, recognizing that a post-Trump reality has opened the Overton Window and forced others to adjust their view of fundamental American interests. The Greenland charade shows again that global interests demand a permanent re-examination of any America-centered policies.

The Scowcroft Group is a Washington, D.C.-based international business advisory firm founded by the late Brent Scowcroft, former National Security Advisor to Presidents George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford. Its principals generously provide Policy’s regular Letter from Washington.