By Maria Popova

October 21, 2025

After successfully brokering a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in early October, the Trump administration turned its attention back to the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the renewed diplomatic initiative and tried to convince the American president that the best way to bring Russia to the negotiation table is through a clear signal of strength by Ukraine and its allies.

For a couple of weeks, the US administration sounded convinced. Donald Trump called Russia a paper tiger, professed a newfound conviction that Ukraine can win back all its territory, and floated the idea of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and allowing it to use them to strike deep into Russian territory. Many thought the tide in Washington had finally turned in Ukraine’s favour and the Ukrainian president announced a visit to Washington.

The day before the visit, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin called Trump and managed to turn back the clock. In a Groundhog Day repeat of similar episodes from February, May, and August, the American president returned to his Russia-favouring position. Suddenly, Trump was again convinced that Putin wants peace, new weapons deliveries to Ukraine are off the agenda, and Ukraine’s president is again being pressured to consider territorial concessions or, per reports of Trump’s threats in their White House bilat, be “destroyed” by Russia.

Above all, these increasingly farcical cycles give Russia an opportunity to continue pursuing its conquest of Ukraine without facing meaningful pressure from the U.S. All Putin has had to do over the last nine months is pick up the phone and claim that he is ready to discuss a settlement and the Trump administration delays or drops the military and economic levers that it can use to pressure Russia, supposedly in the interest of giving diplomacy a chance.

Despite that diplomatic path ending repeatedly in a dead end with Putin refusing a ceasefire, making demands instead of offering concessions, and insisting on achieving his original goals, Trump’s professed frustration and disappointment are only temporary and the cycle unfolds again.

While each cycle follows familiar stages and the Trump administration increasingly appears cynical rather than naive, new waves of Ukrainian civilians die in Russia’s drone and missile attacks, and more Ukrainian soldiers die defending their country.

Above all, these increasingly farcical cycles give Russia an opportunity to continue pursuing its conquest of Ukraine without facing meaningful pressure from the U.S.

In addition to wasting time, Trump’s Groundhog Day diplomacy has become one more thing eroding America’s standing as a great power. Every time Trump claims he had a great conversation with Putin and it produces nothing in terms of Russian concessions or good will, he appears weak and easily duped. Even Russian media are now calling Trump a Putin puppet.

Every time Trump says America cannot afford to help Ukraine because the U.S. needs to save resources for other conflicts or needs its weapons systems for its own defence, the U.S. looks like a spent force. If Trump is the most powerful leader of the most powerful nation, why can’t he force Russia to end its aggression in Europe?

In the film that gave us the pop culture reference, Groundhog Day finally ends when the main character stuck in the loop finally becomes a decent human being and spends a day sincerely helping others. Trump’s Groundhog Day diplomacy, though, could end even if Trump can’t learn from these cycles.

Ukraine and its European allies could succeed in disrupting the Trump-Putin loop. The Ukrainian army is making the most of U.S. intelligence-sharing and the armaments that come though the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) scheme funded by NATO.

Europe should speed up the process of utilizing Russia’s frozen assets to buttress Ukraine financially. Ukraine’s domestic military production is on an upwards trajectory, which has enabled it to successfully target and significantly degrade Russia’s oil refining capacity in the last couple months.

As frustrating and increasingly ludicrous as the last nine months have been, they have demonstrated that Ukraine has again beat most predictions. The conventional wisdom that “If Trump abandons Ukraine, it’s over for them” hasn’t come true.

Despite Trump ending American aid, despite his fickleness, and net hostility to Ukraine, Ukraine has not only survived, but persevered and even regained some momentum. This war’s ending might be as unexpected as its beginning.

Maria Popova is Associate Professor of Political Science at McGill University and Co-Director of the Jean Monnet Centre Montreal. With Oxana Shevel, she recently published a book titled Russia and Ukraine: Entangled Histories, Diverging States.