By Daniel Béland

August 18, 2026

It is a quadrennial question of Quebec politics as old as the last independence referendum, but with a recent twist: Which alternative to the Parti Québecois (PQ) can most efficiently thread the nationalism-autonomy-federalism needle to carry Election Day and pre-empt the next referendum?

It has arisen again as this pre-election summer gives way to a looming fall campaign and the October 5th provincial election, whose importance to national unity has been amplified by its timing exactly two weeks ahead of an Alberta referendum on that province’s independence.

Before the fragmentation of party politics in the province with the advent of the Coalition avenir Québec (which replaced the Action démocratique du Québec through a merger), Québec solidaire, and the provincial Conservative Party in the last 20 years, this was largely a question of casting for the role of Liberal leader.

Most memorably, it was answered by the recruitment of Jean Charest from the federal Tories in 1998, which led to nearly a decade of Liberal rule.

At this writing, the Parti Québécois (PQ) of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon remains ahead in the polls by a four-point margin of error at 30 per cent, with the Liberals (PLQ) of Charles Milliard at 26. But because of its clear lead among francophone voters, the PQ is favoured to win on October 5th according to recent seat projections.

With the inexperienced Milliard closest to St-Pierre Plamondon in support and Coalition avenir Quebec (CAQ) Premier Christine Fréchette yet to ride her incumbency advantage out of the 20-per cent polling range — in large part due to the baggage of François Legault’s unpopular premiership — and into opposition territory, the question of who can stop the PQ will have to be answered in the campaign.

And with the election yet to be officially called, about half of people polled recently by Léger are saying they could still change their mind before now and voting day. This reality should give hope to both Milliard and Fréchette, as it effectively means half of voters are waiting to see what that campaign reveals.

Out of these three leaders, St-Pierre Plamondon is the most experienced as a leader and the one most likely to be seen as a change agent by voters. A lawyer by training, St-Pierre Plamondon is a graduate of McGill University’s unique joint civil and common law degree program and holds an Oxford MBA. His 2014 book Les orphelins politiques (“political orphans”) called for the emergence of a new progressive political movement in Quebec.

Two years later, he finished fourth in the PQ leadership race that replaced Quebecor media mogul Pierre-Karl Péladeau with longtime strategist Jean-François Lisée (who campaigned on delaying a referendum until a second mandate) before serving as special advisor to Lisée. In October 2020, St-Pierre Plamondon won the PQ leadership, promising that a third referendum on independence would take place during the first mandate of a PQ government.

This is a promise St-Pierre Plamondon has never abandoned, and he is now pledging to organize a referendum by 2030 if the PQ wins in October. Despite the fact that polls suggest that a large majority of Quebecers oppose the idea, he is sticking to his pledge, in part to satisfy the PQ base.

While the PQ only won three seats in the 2022 general election, it did not disappear as some had predicted it would, and, under St-Pierre Plamondon, found a way to get much needed media and political exposure that transformed the party into a clear alternative to Legault’s CAQ government. It proceeded to win four by-elections between October and February 2026.

St-Pierre Plamondon has now promised not to hold a referendum until Donald Trump — more disliked in Quebec than in any other province — is out of office.

Now facing new CAQ and LPQ leaders, St-Pierre Plamondon has to convince Quebecers, including those who oppose a third referendum, that he can reverse what he calls the decline of Quebec under the CAQ.

This is a tall order, especially in a context marked by economic and geopolitical uncertainties that help make the prospect of a third referendum worrying to many voters. Which is why St-Pierre Plamondon has now promised not to hold a referendum until Donald Trump — more disliked in Quebec than in any other province — is out of office.

Both Fréchette and Milliard seek to draw attention to the political and economic perils of independence and emphasize the need for stability, which they say is incompatible with the prospect of a third referendum. In that sense, Fréchette and the governing CAQ and Milliard and the Liberals both present as federalist alternatives to the PQ.

Fréchette is a former consultant and political analyst who once served as an advisor to the PQ’s Lisée but won a seat in the National Assembly under the CAQ banner in 2022. After serving as immigration minister, she became finance minister in 2024, an appointment that allowed her to enhance the economic and management side of her political profile.

When Legault announced his resignation in January, Fréchette resigned from cabinet and entered the CAQ leadership race, which she won in April by defeating Bernard Drainville, her only opponent, who emphasized identity issues while she focused mainly on economic matters.

That focus by Fréchette has continued heading into this fall’s campaign, most notably with the announcement of a new Churchill Falls hydro agreement between Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador, unveiled in St. John’s this week with Prime Minister Mark Carney.

If emphasizing the economy makes sense in the current context, Fréchette’s main challenge is to change the image of a party suffering from usure du pouvoir after 8 years in power.

Milliard is a former Uniprix executive and CEO of the Quebec Federation of Chambers of Commerce, a past role that points to his economic credentials. In June 2025, he finished second behind Pablo Rodriguez in the LPQ leadership race.

After Rodriguez resigned 6 months later due to allegations of wrongdoing during that race, Milliard put his name forward again and in mid-February, because he was the only candidate who met the party’s nomination rules, became LPQ leader by acclamation. In contrast to St-Pierre Plamondon and Fréchette, he does not hold a seat in the National Assembly and is clearly less experienced politically.

The LPQ also needs to increase its support among francophone voters without alienating the anglophones and allophones who form key constituencies within the party’s base.

Finally, Quebec’s anti-corruption unit’s ongoing investigation into the 2025 leadership race is a sword of Damocles likely to loom over the LPQ during the campaign, even if Milliard himself is not a target in the investigation and is collaborating with it.

In the end, each leader of Quebec’s three main political parties has specific challenges to face as the official beginning of the campaign approaches.

While St-Pierre Plamondon might have good reason to feel confident right now, the volatility of voters’ intentions, economic anxieties related to trade tensions, and an unpopular third referendum pledge could help his two main opponents.

A fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.