By Don Newman

June 5, 2026

As Canada seeks to rearm and move to a modern, effective military capable of defending this country and meeting its treaty obligations to allies, the procurement choices underway by the Carney government will have implications far beyond the type of submarines and jet fighters necessary to meet those goals.

The government is committed to buying new jet fighters to replace the aging fleet of CF 18s that have been flying since the 1980s. It is also committed to buying at least 12 new diesel powered submarines to replace the four Victoria-class submarines purchased second-hand from Britain in 1998.

The submarines are even more decrepit than the planes. Only one of the four is operational at any one time.

Canada originally committed to buying 88 F-35 fighter jets from the giant American defence contractor Lockheed Martin. That decision was reached by the Trudeau government after more than 20 years of on-and-off plans to buy the planes — a process that was mired in politics with both Liberal and Conservative governments.

Successive governments have known that buying the four used submarines from Britain was only a stopgap measure when first undertaken by the Chretien government. But more pressing demands for replacing surface warships that have yet to be met and the cost of replacing the subs has meant the stop-gap measure has lasted almost 30 years.

So far, Canada has officially committed to buying and paying for 16 of the F-35s. The first of the planes has been delivered to Canada by Lockheed Martin and training has begun at Luke Air Force base in Arizona for Royal Canadian Air Force personnel. Orders have been placed for another 14 of the planes, which will bring to 30 the number of F-35s Canada has.

But Canada placed a hold on the rest of the contract after U.S. President Donald Trump brought devastating tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States not covered by the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Steel, aluminum and forestry products have been particularly hard hit. At the moment, the CUSMA (USMCA in the United States) is up for renewal and renegotiation this summer.

One of the many demands of the Trump administration is that the entire F-35 purchase proceed as originally planned. That means further fighter jet purchases are on hold until the negotiations are concluded.

That also means that a pitch by competing Swedish defence contractor Saab to replace the remaining planes with its own Gripen fighter jet is also on hold. The Swedes moved to fill the void after the full F-35 purchase was paused and have offered to build the Gripen in Canada, transfer technology to this country, and develop an entire ecosystem around the Gripen that could see Canada also manufacturing the plane for other countries.

That offer fits neatly into the Carney government’s Defence Industrial Strategy. However, it could put in jeopardy the interoperability of defence capability with the United States and other NATO allies who have already purchased or are planning to purchase the F-35.

The submarine purchase will proceed much more quickly. By the end of June, Ottawa is planning to announce its choice between two submarines; the ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) 212CD jointly developed and built by a German-Norwegian consortium and the KSS-III, built by the South Korean ship builder Hanwha Oceans. Both bids have been accompanied by lavish promises of industrial benefits ranging beyond shipbuilding and promises of priority access to support their bids.

Buying more than one system is both complicated and more expensive, but it is certainly not impossible.

In the same week in May that Hanwha sailed one of its South korean navy subs into the Canadian submarine base in Esquimalt on Vancouver island to advertise its product, it also announced it had signed an agreement with the Canadian Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association to build armoured vehicles at automotive plants in Southern Ontario hard-hit by Trump Tariffs. It also pledged to use steel from Algoma Steel in Sault Ste. Marie, also a tariff victim.

For its part, TKMS recently agreed to speed its delivery of subs by giving up two vessels to Canada that Germany and Norway already have in the production if it is awarded the contract to for all twelve subs.

Both proposals come with a long string of industrials benefits and predictions of job creation opportunities for years ahead. All are contingent on getting the full submarine contract. However, there are further geopolitical and expanded economic conditions to consider.

The Carney government has been trying to shift as much of Canada’s economic activity away from the United States and Europe has been where it is looking to find new trading partners.

Also hit by tariffs and ruminations by Trump of the United States leaving NATO or at least dramatically reducing American’s commitment, Europe has been a willing partner for Carney.

In December 2025, Canada became the first non-European Union country to join SAFE, the Security Action for Europe program to help underwrite rearmament on the continent. Membership gives Canada advantages other non-European countries don’t have in selling weapons and defence equipment within the EU.

That step plus the ongoing arrangements Canada has with Germany and Norway through the membership all three countries have in NATO makes for strong arguments for the 212CD submarine.

On the other hand, Canada is trying to develop new trading and defence relationships in the Asia Pacific region. Along with Japan, South Korea is a key part of that.

Perhaps the outcome will be a typical Canadian compromise. Buy both subs. Station the German-Norwegian vessels on the East Coast in Halifax as an Atlantic submarine fleet, and the South Korean vessels as a Pacific submarine fleet in Esquimalt. Base infrastructure will have to be built in both places whether Canada ends up with one submarine or two.

Canada would have to negotiate how much of the proposed industrial benefits would still be available under a bifurcated deal. But a potential 30 to 40 billion — half of the contract — should keep both parties interested.

The CF-35 versus Gripen fighter jet decision is a little more complicated. If buying all the American planes becomes the make-or-break negotiation on a new CUSMA deal, that will be the decider. But if it isn’t, Canada could end up with two types of jets in its arsenal. Forty F-35s to meet obligations to allies, Gripen jets for other obligations and tasks.

Buying more than one system is both complicated and more expensive, but it is certainly not impossible. And if it means keeping obligations to allies and enhancing, preserving, and developing our defence and manufacturing infrastructure, it may be a small price to pay.

The next weeks and months on the defence file will be critical in ways much bigger than the equipment alone.

Policy Columnist Don Newman is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a lifetime member and a past president of the Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery.