By Daniel Béland

September 19, 2026

Just over two weeks ahead of the October 5th Quebec election, the polls still show the Parti Quebecois (PQ) in first place, with two debates down and one to go.

At this writing, the latest numbers in The Writ‘s Quebec Election Tracker show the PQ of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon still hovering just under 30 at  28.5 per cent — minority government territory — the incumbent Coalition avenir Quebec (CAQ) of Premier Christine Fréchette vying for second place with the Liberal Party (PLQ) of Charles Milliard at 21.9 and 21.6, the Quebec Conservatives at 16.5 and Québec Solidaire at 10.1.

Yet, with so many voters saying they could still change their minds and five parties competing for seats, the race still feels uncertain, with all three major-party leaders under intense pressure ahead of this Wednesday’s final debate on Radio-Canada.

At dissolution on August 27th, the National Assembly seat breakdown was: CAQ 79, PLQ 18, QS 11, PQ 7, PCQ 1, and independent 9.

All three debates have been in French because, as in 2022, both the PQ and the CAQ refuse to participate in an English-language debate. The first two debates took place last week.

The first was TVA’s Face-à-face Québec 2026, which aired on September 15th and lasted two hours. The following evening, the second debate was less conventional, as it was organized by francophone television network Noovo (formerly V and TQS) and Crave, the Bell Media-owned video streaming service. The second debate lasted 90 minutes and explicitly targeted younger viewers.

Both debates featured the same basic themes. The first of was the trade war between Canada and the United States, which allowed premier and CAQ leader Christine Fréchette to repeat multiple times one of her main campaign messages: that she will work with Prime Minister Carney and the other premiers to help the province navigate this difficult situation while providing steady leadership and rejecting the idea a third referendum on Quebec’s independence.

This idea was the second key theme of both debates, and it put PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon on the spot. As head of the sovereigntist party associated with the 1980 and 1995 referendums, St-Pierre Plamondon has recently diluted his promise to hold a referendum if elected by saying he won’t do so as long as Donald Trump is in office while remaining committed to act by 2030.

Conversely, the third theme, the legacy of eight years of CAQ government, put Fréchette on the defensive, as the other party leaders criticized what they depicted as legacy-defining CAQ mistakes and shortcomings.

At the same time, some of her opponents accused Fréchette of rejecting personal responsibility for these shortcomings and of distancing herself from the CAQ by changing the party’s name to add her own as “Equipe Christine Fréchette-Coalition avenir Québec” and by omitting its logo on electoral posters.

Although they generated less tension during the debates, other issues such as fiscal policy, cost-of-living, health care, and education triggered tense exchanges between at least some of the leaders.

While differences in policy positions clearly emerged during these first two debates, viewers learned little new about the party platforms of the five parties represented. In fact, the presence of five leaders on stage limited the time each of them could actually express their views and, on some occasions, there were cacophonic episodes during which several leaders spoke over each other, creating confusion.

With so many voters saying they could still change their minds and five parties competing for seats, the race still feels uncertain, with all three major-party leaders under intense pressure ahead of this Wednesday’s final debate on Radio-Canada.

Predictably, much of the post-debate media and social media commentary focused less on content than on the “performance” of each leader and which of them had “won” or “lost” the debate, in the way that debates typically capture the “style over substance” culture of election campaigns.

In general, there is a clear sense that St-Pierre Plamondon did very well both nights. This is not surprising because he is more experienced than most of the other leaders on stage as, like Conservative Éric Duhaime, he participated in the 2022 campaign debates.

As the leader of the party ahead in the polls, St-Pierre Plamondon had much to lose and his two strong showings certainly reassured the PQ base. Not surprisingly, as the other more experienced party leader and a former radio host, Duhaime also did well, especially during the TVA debate.

Out of the three other, less experience leaders, QS Ruba Ghazal, whose official title is “co-spokesperson” (alongside MNA Sol Zanetti), offered solid performances but her party remains in fifth place in the polls at around 10 per cent and its main goal seems to be to maintain its 2022 seat count of 11.

For Liberal leader Charles Milliard — the least politically experienced leader in the race and someone who still needs to do more to get Quebecers to know who he is and what he stands for — there was much at stake in the two debates.

While expectations might have been low, Milliard did clearly exceed them, especially during the second debate, which is encouraging news for the PLQ and for him, as he seeks to convince voters that he is the only real federalist alternative to the PQ and that he can help foster economic stability in the context of Donald Trump’s trade war.

Finally, there is premier Fréchette, who faced bold attacks from the other leaders during both debates and sometimes adopted aggressive tactics to change the topic and strike back at her opponents. This was especially true during the TVA debate, which is unlikely to have helped her, as she struggled to counter incoming fire.

While Fréchette and the CAQ received a poll bump from the “Trump effect” when the trade war with the White House reached its climax a few weeks ago, her party is now stagnating in the polls, which gives hope to both the PQ and the PLQ.

Two weeks before election day, the race remains uncertain, but with the PQ still leading, the incumbent CAQ and the Liberals vying for second place, and one more debate to go.

On Wednesday, Radio-Canada hosts the last debate of the campaign and, next weekend, advance voting takes place. Then, it will be up to Quebecers to once again decide which vision of their future to endorse.

A fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Daniel Béland is professor of political science and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University.