By Ben Collins

December 21, 2025

As we end one year and usher in a new one, Westminster MPs consuming yuletide plates of Yorkshire pudding and mince pies across Britain are facing the same questions — and maybe the same answers — as to why the establishment Labour and Conservative parties are languishing in the opinion polls.

And while some years mark political watersheds based on a single, pulse-taking election, this year in the UK, the voting on one day in May will be more of a full-body MRI.

While the Westminster election could be more than three years away, the results of the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd elections, and English local elections — all taking place on May 7th — could have significant repercussions.

Among them, Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership, which has been the subject of internal machinations for months, will be on the line as a poor Labour showing will unleash an ouster if 80 Labour MPs agree on a replacement.

In the latest Westminster YouGov poll, voting intention is Reform 27%, Labour 19%, Conservative 18% (7-8 Dec 2025) . In some polls, the Greens are ahead of Labour. And, in an ideologically reversed echo of the recent Tory defections to Mark Carney’s Liberals in Canada, three UK Tory MPs have bolted farther right to Farage’s Reform.

In Scotland, per Ipsos, the independence advocating Scottish National Party (SNP) remain ahead but Reform support is on the rise, while Labour support slumps. Scotland seems on the cusp of electing an SNP majority, in a system designed to avoid any single party securing an overall majority. The last time the SNP achieved that in 2011, the UK government was compelled to agree to a Scottish Independence referendum.

That referendum, held in September 2014, was carried by the “No” side, against independence, at 55.3% to 44.7% for the “Yes”. Just as Quebec saw a second referendum on sovereignty in 1995, so there could be a second Scottish independence referendum if results in May produce an SNP majority.

In Scotland now, Reform UK are second behind the SNP, Scottish Labour are third, with the Conservatives a distant fourth.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru, who want Welsh independence, lead in the polls, followed closely by Reform UK. Welsh Labour and the Conservatives in third and fourth place are both far back in levels of support. The Labour Party has been dominant in Wales since the Second World War, so a Plaid Cymru victory would be a seismic result.

Elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly are not due to take place until May 2027 and the region already has a nationalist first minister, Michelle O’Neill, as Sinn Féin, who favour Irish unity, have been the largest party since the 2022 Assembly elections.

The results of the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd elections, and English local elections — all taking place on May 7, 2026 — could have significant repercussions.

So, by mid-May, there could be a new UK prime minister, an emboldened Reform UK, and nationalist first ministers in both Scotland and Wales as well. It should be noted that even if the SNP narrowly misses out on an outright majority, when its seats are combined with the Scottish Greens, on the basis of current opinion polls there is likely to be the largest ever pro-independence number of MSPs with a clear pro-independence majority.

This, combined with a strong showing in Scotland, Wales and England for Reform UK, which could finish with more seats and votes than Labour and the Conservatives, would be all but impossible for Starmer to shrug off. Historically, the Labour Party has been more reluctant than the Tories to change its leader during a term of government, but these are unprecedented times.

Reform UK won five seats in the Westminster election of July 2024 that produced the Starmer landslide, but if the current trends in opinion polls are replicated in the next Westminster election, set for no later than August 2029, we could be heading for a 1993 Canadian Federal election watershed outcome.

Whereas 1993 led to more than a decade of Liberal rule in Canada, in Britain, Reform UK could potentially form a majority government. This is particularly true if they can form an electoral pact with the Conservatives, as Farage has suggested. Such an outcome is likely to drive further support for Scottish and Welsh independence as well as for Irish unity.

It is extraordinary that Farage, one of the biggest cheerleaders for Brexit, could be rewarded for the deep frustration many voters feel about the flatlining British economy when so many commentators, academic researchers and the British government itself have indicated that Brexit is the cause of that flatlining.

The recent conviction of the former Wales leader of Reform UK, Nathan Gill, who was sentenced to 10 years in prison for accepting Russian bribes for pro-Kremlin speeches and interviews while a member of the European Parliament, does not appear to have dampened enthusiasm for the party.

There have also been several accusations from Farage’s ex-schoolmates that he was racist in his attitude toward some other students. None of this appears to be impacting negatively on Reform UK’s support in the polls.

The first-past-the-post voting used in Westminster elections could be particularly brutal for the ruling Labour Party, which could be squeezed from both right and left as the Greens under new leader Zach Polanski have seen their poll support and membership numbers surge upwards.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have proven to be adept at winning local council seats from Labour, as the fragile electoral coalition that led to the Labour sweep in July 2024 has fractured in multiple directions.

Starmer had aimed to position himself as someone who could improve relations with the European Union while at the same time negotiating a favourable trade deal with Donald Trump. Unfortunately, the UK is finding out, just as Canada has, that the Trump administration is a fickle and unreliable partner when it comes to trade negotiations.

But when we look forward to what may happen in May and beyond, it’s important to remember the adage that the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day. In May 2026, the results could be transformational.

Policy Contributing Writer Ben Collins is a Belfast-based communications consultant and author of  Irish Unity: Time to Prepare, and The Irish Unity Dividend.