A Scottish independence referendum rally in Glasgow, May 2018/Wikimedia

By Liam Whittington

August 24, 2026

This fall, Canada faces its first serious conversation on secession in more than three decades. The people of Alberta are preparing to cast their votes in a referendum that could catalyze a process that would fundamentally reshape Canada’s territorial boundaries.

The upcoming ballot on 19 October will determine whether the province moves ahead with a subsequent binding referendum on independence. With the question of a third Quebec separation referendum emerging as a political bellwether in the forthcoming provincial election, these mechanisms of direct democracy seem to be once again ascendant in the Canadian political milieu.

Referenda on issues as critical as separation might be met with trepidation. Plebiscites are imperfect vehicles for democratic practice, often reducing complex, multi-dimensional issues to binary choices with little room for nuance.

Referenda nevertheless remain valid expressions of democratic decision making, both in Canada and many other liberal democracies around the world. As the country gears up for what could be a defining moment in its history, there are four valuable lessons to be learned from separation referendum processes in other countries.

Meet the Political Moment – and Tick the Boxes

First, both the question posed and the process by which a referendum is triggered must be perceived to be viable. Viability is distinct from legitimacy; determining whether an independence ballot is legitimate requires a judgement based fundamentally in the values individuals bring to the issue. Whether a separation vote is viable on the other hand, depends on meeting thresholds detached from the moral principles central to assessments of legitimacy.

Viability is multi-faceted: a referendum clearly must be constitutionally and legally valid. But referendums must also be politically viable — an intangible condition more subject to negotiation and dealmaking. Together, these three dimensions of viability — constitutional, legal and political — provide the mandate to ask the question, to accept the results of the vote, and take any action that follows.

The contrast between the independence referendums in Scotland in 2014 and in Catalonia in 2017 illustrates the importance of viability. When the Scottish National Party (SNP) won a parliamentary majority in the 2011 election with a manifesto pledge to deliver an independence referendum, the stage was set for a vote. The UK government, for its part, recognized that the victory of the SNP gave it a mandate to hold a separation referendum.

But as the UK’s constitutional settlement did not provide for Scotland to hold a unilateral vote on independence without authorization of the UK government, there was a political deal to be made. Following months of negotiations, in October 2012, the UK and Scottish governments signed the Edinburgh Agreement, transferring temporary powers to the Scottish Parliament to hold an advisory and non-binding independence referendum by the end of 2014.

With all the viability boxes ticked, Scots had their say on independence on 18 September 2014 and the results of the vote were respected.

The viability of the 2017 independence vote in Catalonia, on the other hand, was much more uncertain from its inception. Following a history of intergovernmental conflict between Madrid and Barcelona and the “indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation” per the Constitution, the viability threshold of an independence referendum was much higher in Catalonia than in Scotland. With negotiation proving impossible, the referendum debate descended into a legal battle over self-determination rights in the courts.

In advance of the vote, the Spanish Constitutional Court ruled the referendum unconstitutional in response to a challenge from the Spanish government, decisively terminating its legal and constitutional viability. Consequently, regardless of the legitimacy of a unilateral Catalan plebiscite on self-determination, the 1 October 2017 referendum was never going to settle the question of Catalan independence. Rather, it heightened the tensions between pro-independence Catalans and the Spanish government.

Separation referendums are ultimately questions of politics, not process. While the constitutional and legal thresholds are fundamental, they do not operate in abstraction; context matters. The current expression of dissatisfaction with Canada’s federal arrangements should be viewed as part of the ongoing negotiation of the country’s political settlement.

Clarity is Critical

Clarity is critical in any separation referendum. This goes beyond clarity in the question being asked and the establishment of a clear majority, as defined by Canada’s Clarity Act. Voters must possess as explicit an understanding as possible of the implications of their decision before they cast their ballot. An independence referendum vote must be an informed one: an individual’s choice may depend on the terms of separation.

This is one of the principal lessons of the 2016 Brexit vote — the quintessential cautionary tale of plebiscites in the 21^st Century. While the referendum returned a narrow majority in favour of leaving the European Union, the question did not address the kind of separation sought. The terms of withdrawal were subject to a lengthy, arduous and contentious negotiation process, resulting in an outcome that dissatisfied both leavers and remainers.

A plebiscite might ask a simple binary question, but the process of leaving is complex and inevitably involves trade-offs. Promises of sunlit meadows often meet with the hard realities of economic and security interdependence. Political leaders therefore have a responsibility to provide the electorate with the information required to make an informed decision.

There are of course limits as to what can be clarified before a referendum takes place. The precise terms of separation are impossible to pre-determine pending negotiations. Nevertheless, expectations about the consequences of separation influence the decisions of voters, as they did during Brexit. The unicorn problem must be avoided: politicians making impossible, unworkable, and sometimes contradictory demands or proposals on how the results of a referendum will be subsequently actioned.

Should Alberta move to a full referendum on separation, serious consideration should be given to including outcome-based answers to the question posed to provide voters with a more precise idea of the consequences of their vote. In any potential upcoming Canadian plebiscites, a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ decision cannot lead to a leap into the unknown.

In June 2026, a decade after the Brexit referendum, YouGov polling showed that 57 per cent of Britons, including 23 per cent of those who voted to leave, now say the UK was wrong to leave the EU, and 55 per cent want to rejoin. The lesson being that not only do referenda have consequences, they are not to be treated as “symbolic” since the ramifications can be enormous and the regret is real.

Prepare for Shifts in the Political Status Quo

Whatever the outcome of a referendum, the relationship between the territory in question and the rest of the country or larger political entity is likely to remain a defining question. The issue of separation can become a paradigm around which political discourse orbits, whether voters and politicians like it or not. There are opportunities for constructive pathways forward from such a scenario. Governments may move to acknowledge and address key issues surrounding the vote.

In the wake of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, for example, the UK government convened the Smith Commission to explore the devolution of additional powers to the Scottish Parliament. The Commission’s recommendations were incorporated into the 2016 Scotland Act, providing Scotland with greater control over its taxes and welfare spending. While Scots ultimately voted no to independence in in 2014, those in favour of greater autonomy from Westminster also gained something from the process.

The evolution of a separation referendum into political paradigm also carries risks. Increased polarization among people on different sides of the debate, in which political identity comes to be defined by one’s position on the emotive question of independence, can lead to political and social division. This can reshape the domestic political landscape, as epitomised by Brexit Britain.

The vote to leave the EU and the withdrawal process have either directly or indirectly defined the past decade of politics in the UK, chewing though an unprecedented seven Prime Ministers in 10 years. The political energy expended on navigating Brexit’s economic, diplomatic and security implications has resulted in a decade of paralysis and increasing political discontentment among voters.

The rise of the Reform Party (a rebranded and evolved version of the Brexit Party) illustrates just how powerful Euroscepticism remains as a force in UK politics. In 2026, addressing the effects of Brexit remains firmly on the agenda, as politicians debate how close the UK should be to Europe, and what kind of relationship is politically palatable in a changing global order.

Importantly, the Brexit referendum shows that the political challenges that accompany a plebiscite are not resolved with the result. Often, they only become more complex. Political leaders in Canada should reckon with and prepare for this reality as they deal with the consequences of Alberta’s referendum on a referendum. The issue of independence will almost certainly continue to reverberate within Canada’s political discourse for years to come, regardless of the decision.

Expect the Unexpected

Referenda are unpredictable. There are no guarantees of outcomes when the question touches on topics as emotive as self-determination, sovereignty and identity. Moreover, the political, economic and cultural environment in which a referendum is held inevitably shapes the result. But assumptions made in the lead-up to a plebiscite can also be upended very shortly by events that follow.

Scots who voted no to Scottish independence in 2014 feeling it would be better to remain within the EU as part of the UK, rather than outside the Union in an independent Scotland, saw the goalposts shift completely less than two years later with Brexit. Post-June 2016, EU membership became associated with Scottish independence, and support for separation increased to levels higher than in 2014.

Similarly, few could have anticipated that the Catalan independence referendum would trigger the type of dramatic political crisis that unfolded following the vote. The unilateral declaration of Catalan independence, clashes between police and protestors, and the prosecution of Catalan separatist leaders for sedition, illustrated just how unpredictable a post-referendum period can be.

Economic predictions are especially vulnerable to the vicissitudes of global events. The anticipated economic benefits of leaving or remaining in the European Union formed a cornerstone of the Brexit debates. Ten years after the vote, studies indicate that Brexit has had a large and persistent negative impact on the UK economy over time, hitting business investment, employment and labour productivity.

Brexit is not the only reason for the UK’s poor economic performance over the past decade: the COVID pandemic, the energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the conflict between the United States and Iran are all important factors. But solving the economic challenges of leaving the largest trading bloc in the world was compounded by events over which the UK had no control.

Independence referendums bring uncertainty and even in plebiscites where voters opt to retain the status quo, this can have short-term economic consequences. Canada has experience with this effect in the emigration and corporate relocation that accompanied the Quebec plebiscites in 1980 and 1995.

The uncertainty that accompanies such votes can create economic drag with real implications for business investment, trade and job creation. A corresponding increase in tangible economic hardship for ordinary people is a risk that the prospect of separation referendum raises, no matter the ultimate outcome.

Canada’s latest unity question comes at a time when the geopolitical order is more uncertain than it has been at any point since the end of the Cold War. There is scant sign that it will stabilize any time soon. In this context, political leaders in Canada should remain adaptable to meet the unanticipated challenges that will almost certainly emerge during and following a referendum.

What’s Next for Canada?    

Questions of unity have been part of the equation in Canada since confederation. In 2026, Canadians deserve referendums that, whatever the result, respect their right to democratic expression while providing confidence in the process and a positive path forward in the aftermath.

Canada is well placed to draw on the lessons from international independence referenda — as well as those derived from its own experience of self-determination plebiscites — as it navigates this inflection point in the life of the country.

Liam Whittington is Senior Program Manager for the Forum of Federations