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Prime Minister Mark Carney was elected in part because, at a time when the Canadian economy is besieged by Donald Trump’s tariff war, Carney’s unrivalled economic qualifications made him especially appealing to voters. While there remains some question as to how that tariff assault will play out for Canada, the first budget of a government headed by the former Department of Finance official, former Governor of the Bank of Canada and former Governor of the Bank of England was tabled November 4th. Our Policy contributors provided their exceptional pre- and post-budget insight and analysis. 

In post-budget reaction:

From former Parliamentary Budget Officer, longtime Policy Contributing Writer and President of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy Kevin Page, a closer look at just one of the ways in which this budget is unprecedented, and an important one: the focus on capital investment as distinct from operating spending. “Budget 2025 is the start of a capital investment agenda for Canada,” writes Page. “It largely follows the policy script laid out in the Liberal election platform.” Here’s Kevin Page with Budget 2025: A Capital Investment Agenda.

From Counsel Public Affairs Senior VP, novelist extraordinaire and Policy Contributing Writer John Delacourt, an inside look at the rituals of Budget Day lockup and the shadow of Donald Trump looming over this budget. “Indeed, the pronounced focus on themes of capital investment and tech transformation in the budget — from ‘building big’ to laying the track for digital sovereignty,” writes Delacourt, “can be interpreted as lines in the sand as indelible as the 49th parallel Trump maintains is a figment of the collective Canadian imagination.” here’s John Delacourt with A Budget from Our Own Foreign Country.

And, wrapping up the political moment, here’s Policy Columnist Don Newman positing that Donald Trump could punish the foreign investment provisions of the budget by imposing more tariffs. “If Trump’s ultimate goal is to use trade as a form of economic domination,” writes Newman, “we should not be surprised to see new American tariffs on Canadian exports in response to this budget.” Here’s Don Newman with In an Economic War, a Budget Both Weapon and Target.

In pre-budget opinion and analysis:

Policy Columnist Don Newman has weighed in on the political lay of the land just days before the budget, with a look at the potentially bumpy road post-tabling. “Shortly after the budget speech is delivered by Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne,” writes Newman, “we will find out if the government has been successful in convincing enough Members of Parliament that Canada is at a ‘hinge’ moment and generational, transformative change is necessary.” Here’s Don Newman with The Political Perils Facing the Carney Budget.

For Canada’s business community, the November 4th budget presents a particular set of requirements. Will it help swing the post-tariff-war pendulum back from uncertainty? What are the specifics of Mark Carney’s plan to invest our way out of imbalance and into growth? Theo Argitis recently joined the Business Council of Canada as VP Policy, bringing more than two decades of experience with Bloomberg News to the role. Here’s Theo Argitis with Growth, Prudence, Politics: The Tests Ahead for Carney’s First Budget.

With Mark Carney promising “generational investments” in this budget, oversight will have to be just as epic, argue former Parliamentary Budget Officer and current President of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy Kevin Page and Vice President for Oversight and Professional Development at the Canadian Audit and Accountability Foundation (CAAF) Lesley Burns. “Will Canada’s legislative oversight systems (federal, provincial, and municipal) — from the scrutiny of new spending authorities by elected representatives to the review of spending and performance by public accounts committees — be ready and resourced for this moment?” Here are Kevin Page and Lesley Burns with Budget 2025: Generational Investments Require Generational Scrutiny.

From the brilliant researchers at the Smart Prosperity Institute, we have a look at the state of Canada’s agri-food industry and what the Carney government’s budget can do to help. “Recently, Canada has slipped from the fifth-largest global agri-food exporter to eighth, due to rising costs, lagging revenues and a volatile production, supply chain and geopolitical environment,” write Michael Twigg, Ryan Cooper and Olivia Richardson. “Budget 2025 offers the federal government a chance to address these challenges and strengthen the sector’s resilience, competitiveness and climate readiness.” Here’s Budget 2025: Strengthening Canada’s Agri-Food Economy.

We can always count on former CBC anchor and longtime Policy Columnist Don Newman for the perfect injection of historical perspective when it matters most. In his pre-budget column on the current need for a national call to purpose, Newman reflects on Mark Carney’s rhetorical transition from high finance to politics. “He spent more than a decade in roles where his words could move markets,” writes Newman of Carney’s circumspection, citing John F. Kennedy’s electrifying inaugural address as a model for what’s needed now. Here’s Don Newman with Budget 2025: Mark Carney Needs an ‘Ask Not’ Moment.

Sometimes, a budget is more than just a budget. “We haven’t even seen it yet, and already we know this budget is a hostage to history,” writes Policy Editor Lisa Van Dusen, “or at least to the reality-show history of tactical tariff wars, selective sectoral purging and epic defence spending that have redefined our economic relationship with the United States.” Filed on the night of Mark Carney’s October 22nd pre-budget speech at the University of Ottawa, here’s Lisa Van Dusen with When is a Budget More than Just a Budget?

With U.S. trade and foreign policy under the second Trump administration deviating from norms, treaties, and reasonable expectations in a way that impacts the Canadian economy as well as global trends, the Carney government’s commitment to foreign aid will be worth watching in Budget 2025. Forum of Federations President Rupak Chattopadhyay has filed a must-read piece arguing that, with the shuttering of USAID, Canada should embrace more innovative approaches to development aid, including via a focus on energy. “Data may be the new oil,” writes Chattopadhyay, “but without access to reliable energy, nations risk exclusion from the digital future.” From October 22, here’s Rupak Chattopadhyay with Empowering Good Governance with Energy-Based Development Assistance.

Prime Minister Carney is known for using the term “hinge moment” to describe the unprecedented confluence of crisis and systemic siege currently characterizing world events. No-one is better placed than former Parliamentary Budget Officer and current President of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy Kevin Page to lay out the vagaries of fiscal planning in such a context, which he says falls short of the crisis recently portrayed by the current PBO. “The reality is that there is no fiscal crisis. No precipice,” per our October 14th IFSD piece. Here’s Kevin Page, with undergraduate economics students Adam Parwana and Hao Tian Shen: Budget 2025: Financing Canada’s Hinge Moment.

From the creative minds at the Smart Prosperity Institute, we have a piece that may be of interest to the only head of government who has also served as the UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance. “The climate transition is not just a cost to be managed,” write Anik Islam, Dr. Colleen (Ollie) Kaiser and Caelan Welch. “While its challenges are complex, it also presents the economic opportunity of our time. Countries that align policy certainty, data and innovative financing are poised to attract greater investment, create high-quality jobs and secure global market share in the climate-resilient industries of the future.” From October 9th, here’s Budget 2025: Unlocking Private Capital for a Competitive, Climate-Resilient Economy.

During the 2025 federal election campaign, Carney promised a new fiscal framework, one split between operational and capital expenditures. The new bifurcated budget model was confirmed on October 6th, along with the news that all federal budgets will now be tabled in the fall. Former Parliamentary Budget Officer, current President of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy, and longtime Policy contributor Kevin Page provided his instant analysis on what the changes mean. “The separation of operating and capital-related spending is an important transparency improvement,” writes Page. Here’s Kevin Page with The Carney Government’s Changes to Federal Budgeting.

From Policy Columnist and McGill Institute for the Study of Canada Director Daniel Béland also happens to be co-editor of the anthology Fiscal Federalism in Canada, which makes him an authoritative source on fiscal federalism and this budget. “The Liberals would be well advised to keep Prime Minister’s Carney’s promise to refrain from cutting transfers to the provinces and territories in his government’s first budget,” writes Béland. “Yet, this does not mean that, moving forward, his government should neglect fiscal federalism.” Here’s Daniel Béland with Budget 2025 and Fiscal Federalism.

After more than two decades of covering U.S. and Canadian politics from both sides of the border, Policy Editor and Publisher Lisa Van Dusen explores the unprecedented influence of an American president on this Canadian budget. “Trump looms over it as no previous foreign leader has over any Canadian federal budget,” writes Van Dusen, “except perhaps in wartime, notably the last time a tyrant delegated and dictated the actions of governments across much of the world.” Here’s Lisa Van Dusen with Mark Carney’s Wartime Budget.

Longtime CBC anchor and Policy Columnist Don Newman knows both the process and the politics of federal budgets, and in a must-read piece filed September 26, Newman looks at the context of the process and politics of this one at a time when all federal budgets are global. “The budget will set the stage for the government’s plans to reposition Canada as a more self-reliant, globally connected nation,” writes Newman, “less dependent on the United States and with greater domestic capabilities both economically and internationally.” Here’s Don Newman with The Federal Budget Countdown is On.

From the team at the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy, a big-picture piece on the crucial role played by a part of the pre-budget process most Canadians never contemplate. “From a fiscal management and policy perspective, the design and implementation of spending review is a critical success factor for budgets 2025 and beyond,” write Kevin Page, Clara Geddes, and Mikhaeil Ibrahim-Qayyum. “It is the fiscal gasoline that drives the policy engine and maintains fiscal discipline, ensuring a smooth ride with financial markets.” Here’s Budget 2025: The Role of Federal Spending Review and Reallocation.

As anyone old enough to remember the Greek debt debacle and the Euro crisis that followed knows, austerity has been a third rail in the fiscal strategizing of democratically elected governments for more than a decade. When Mark Carney uttered the word in French in early September, pearl-clutching ensued. “Austerity is particularly unpopular in Quebec,” wrote Daniel Béland on September 3, “for both historical and political reasons.” Here’s Daniel Béland with Eyebrows Up: Mark Carney’s Budget and the ‘A-Word’ Controversy.

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