NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (from behind) in the Oval Office/WH

As the leaders of the 32 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries meet in Ankara, Turkey, July 7-8, the security, political, and geopolitical narratives that will unfold within the Beştepe Presidential Compound contain some familiar elements. The first is, of course, what sort of a spoiler role Donald Trump might perform this year. The second is the paradox of Trump’s status as the organization’s greatest existential threat who still dictates what its members spend on defence. The third will be Vladimir Putin’s ongoing war against Ukraine which, this year, Ukraine seems to be winning. And, for Canadians and observers elsewhere of Canada’s evolving geopolitical role, there will be the story of how Prime Minister Mark Carney’s doctrine of variable geometry is holding up against Trumpian disruption and democratic degradation. With many thanks to our Policy contributors, welcome to our coverage of the 2026 NATO Summit.

From the Conference of Defence Associations Institute’s Kevin Budning and Lilit Klein, a look at Canada’s cards in Ankara, including a Carney-led re-branding that has re-positioned Ottawa as a serious defence and security player. “What distinguishes Canada lies beyond spending,” Budning and Klein write, “deep expertise, strategic geography, abundant natural resource, and a stable democracy, now finally matched by political will and economic incentives that put real skin in the game.” Here are Kevin Budning and Lilit Klein with Salt and Sizzle: Canada’s Mission at the 36th NATO Summit.

On his way from Ottawa to Ankara on July 6th, Mark Carney stopped in Halifax to make the long-awaited announcement of which bidder — Germany’s TKMS or South Korea’s Hanwha — had won the contract to build up to 12 new submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy. The timing alone was a dead giveaway, with the bid going to TKMS’s joint proposal with Norway, both furthering Carney’s focus on greater defence and security cooperation with Europe and solidifying Canada’s investment in NATO. “The new submarines will be interoperable with other NATO fleets,” writes Policy Columnist Don Newman. “But as the Prime Minister also said, the submarine decision will strengthen the Atlantic alliance at a crucial moment.” Here’s Don Newman with En Route to NATO, Carney Doubles Down on NATO.

Because all economics is geopolitical these days, Carney’s choice of a European/NATO-partner consortium for the most lucrative procurement contract in Canadian history raised the question of Canada-South Korea bilateral vigour. There is no better writer in Canada to clarify this for our readers than Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada VP and Policy Contributing Writer Vina Nadjibulla. “Hanwha’s campaign helped move South Korea in Canadian eyes from an important economic partner to a serious strategic and defence-industrial partner,” writes Nadjibulla. “Within Carney’s ‘variable geometry’, Canada’s Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific interests share a rapidly expanding Venn overlap. South Korea is central to these calculations.” Here’s Vina Nadjibulla with Canada Chose NATO on Submarines. Now, it Must Keep South Korea Close.

In their advance piece on Ankara, longtime Policy contributor and former Canadian Defence Minister Perrin Beatty, and Carleton University professor of International Affairs and Policy Columnist Fen Osler Hampson argued that Donald Trump could be upstaged this year by another chaos actor. “Many European leaders are now convinced that Putin,” write the authors, “having been bloodied in an unpopular war that increasingly threatens his grip on power, will take a run at the Baltics in his determination to rebuild the old Soviet empire.” Here are Perrin Beatty and Fen Osler Hampson with In Ankara, Trump May Not be NATO’s Biggest Problem.

We’ll be adding new pieces to this series during and after the summit.

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