For nearly a decade, since former Parliamentary Budget Office Kevin Page founded the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa in 2016, regular economic analysis pieces from Kevin and the IFSD team have provided Policy readers with invaluable context and insight on everything from federal budgets to the economic impacts of the COVID pandemic to the role of the economy in election campaigns. Here are our IFSD pieces in a single post for easy reference. 

From 2026:

After months of propaganda targeting by Donald Trump against Fed Chair Jerome Powell over everything from interest rates to the cost of renovations to the Federal Reserve headquarters back to interest rates, Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell at the end of January. “After the controversies of the past year, will the Fed be able to protect its independence? If not, what might this mean for market (in)stability? For Canada?” write IFSD President Kevin Page and Ottawa University economics student Djeima Ramos. From February 5th, here’s Donald Trump’s Choice for Central Banker.

Yes, our intrepid friends at the IFSD start thinking about next year’s federal budget before the ink is dry on this year’s. IFSD President Kevin Page, with an assist from University of Ottawa economics students Adam Parwana and Hao Tian Shen, filed a piece on December 11, 2025, submitting an early theme for Budget 2026. “A closer look at Canada’s sagging productivity suggests the next budget must take tangible steps to strengthen innovation performance,” the authors write, citing 2025 Nobel economics laureate Peter Howitt’s ideas for inspiration. “Canada now has a Nobel voice on innovation and growth; one whose ideas speak directly to our economic challenges. Can we apply the insights of our own Nobel laureate to our policy choices?” Here are Kevin Page, Adam Parwana, and Hao Tian Shen with Canada’s Nobel Moment and Budget 2026: Inspiring an Innovation Agenda.

From our Budget 2025 Series:

From former Parliamentary Budget Officer, longtime Policy Contributing Writer and President of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy Kevin Page, a closer look at just one of the ways in which the first federal budget from Mark Carney is unprecedented, and an important one: the focus on capital investment as distinct from operating spending. “Budget 2025 is the start of a capital investment agenda for Canada,” writes Page. “It largely follows the policy script laid out in the Liberal election platform.” From November 5th, here’s Kevin Page’s day-after piece, Budget 2025: A Capital Investment Agenda.

Prime Minister Carney is known for using the term “hinge moment” to describe the unprecedented confluence of crisis and systemic siege currently characterizing world events. No-one is better placed than former Parliamentary Budget Officer and current President of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy Kevin Page to lay out the vagaries of fiscal planning in such a context, which he says falls short of the crisis recently portrayed by the current PBO. “The reality is that there is no fiscal crisis. No precipice,” per our October 14th IFSD piece. From October 14th, here’s Kevin Page, with undergraduate economics students Adam Parwana and Hao Tian Shen: Budget 2025: Financing Canada’s Hinge Moment.

During the 2025 federal election campaign, Carney promised a new fiscal framework, one split between operational and capital expenditures. The new bifurcated budget model was confirmed on October 6th, along with the news that all federal budgets will now be tabled in the fall. Former Parliamentary Budget Officer, current President of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy, and longtime Policy contributor Kevin Page provided his instant analysis on what the changes mean. “The separation of operating and capital-related spending is an important transparency improvement,” writes Page. From October 6th, here’s Kevin Page with The Carney Government’s Changes to Federal Budgeting.

From the IFSD team, a big-picture piece on the crucial role played by a part of the pre-budget process most Canadians never contemplate. “From a fiscal management and policy perspective, the design and implementation of spending review is a critical success factor for budgets 2025 and beyond,” write Kevin Page, Clara Geddes, and Mikhaeil Ibrahim-Qayyum. “It is the fiscal gasoline that drives the policy engine and maintains fiscal discipline, ensuring a smooth ride with financial markets.” From September 23rd, here’s Budget 2025: The Role of Federal Spending Review and Reallocation.

The 2025 Federal Election

As Election Day approached in April, IFSD’s crack economic analysis team provided the public service of enlightening Policy readers on the fiscal DNA of the party platforms. First, amid persistent questions about why the three major-party election platforms had not yet made an appearance in the campaign, Mostafa Askari, Sahir Khan and Kevin Page filed a helpful explanation as to why it mattered. “Party platforms are important,” they wrote. “They provide information on the priorities of a political party that would shape their behavior as a government.” Here are Askari, Khan and Page with Where are the Costed Party Platforms? The Clock is Ticking. And, following the release of all three platforms in the days that followed, we published IFSD’s Fiscal Credibility Assessments of the Pre-Election Party Platforms. And, on April 24th, four days before Election Day, Askari, Khan and Page summarized their assessments in narrative form, with Following the Money in the 2025 Party Platforms.

With Mark Carney promising “generational investments” in this budget, oversight will have to be just as epic, argue former Parliamentary Budget Officer and current President of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy Kevin Page and Vice President for Oversight and Professional Development at the Canadian Audit and Accountability Foundation (CAAF) Lesley Burns. “Will Canada’s legislative oversight systems (federal, provincial, and municipal) — from the scrutiny of new spending authorities by elected representatives to the review of spending and performance by public accounts committees — be ready and resourced for this moment?” Here are Kevin Page and Lesley Burns with Budget 2025: Generational Investments Require Generational Scrutiny.

With the prinicpal ballot question of the 2025 election being which leader could best deal with Donald Trump’s tariff war, IFSD President Kevin Page and University of Ottawa economics student Emaad Samsoodeen provided a report card on how Canada’s tariff response was going so far. “Three policy responses have gained traction during the election campaign: the dismantling of interprovincial trade barriers, the diversification of trade partners, and moving forward on industry strategies, especially for critical minerals,” wrote Samsoodeen and Page. “If acted upon wisely, these could usher in an era of economic prosperity.” Here are Emaad Samsoodeen and Kevin Page with Assessing Canada’s Policy Responses to Trump’s Tariffs.

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From March 25, a timely look at the security vulnerability that tends to get eclipsed amid the debate about defence spending: the resiliency of our information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure. “ICT infrastructure cannot be left out of the discussion on critical infrastructure and economic security,” write IFSD Economic Analyst Clara Geddes and IFSD Managing Director Helaina Gaspard. “From the purchasing of goods and services to the management of utilities to access to health care, ICT permeates all facets of economic and social life in Canada.” Here are Geddes and Gaspard with Information and Communication Infrastructure Resiliency: Canada’s Invisible Security Risk.

On the eve of the swearing-in of Canada’s new prime minister, Mark Carney, and his cabinet, and with a federal election looming, IFSD co-founder and executive vice president Sahir Khan filed a helpful primer on what’s needed to get Ottawa “fiscal plumbing” in order. “Fiscal plumbing is about the decisions governments take on how to allocate and spend public money, the controls in place to ensure spending delivers results, and the people interpreting the rules,” Khan writes. “Like regular plumbing, it is often unseen, but when mistakes are made, the repercussions can be unpleasant and damaging.” Here’s Sahir Khan on March 13th with Fixing the Fisc: Free Advice for Canada’s Next Prime Minister.

As Canada braces for a trade war threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump, on March 3rd, new research  from IFSD President Kevin Page and Economics student Showtell Browne provides a snapshot of the country’s vital signs at zero hour. “Canada is at a crossroads. Its global standing reflects both remarkable strengths and urgent challenges”, per the authors. Here are Showtell Browne and Kevin Page with Canada’s Global Standing: Prosperous, Progressive, and Peaceful.

From 2024:

On December 16th, the Trudeau government’s Fall Economic Statement was tabled in the House of Commons amid political uproar over the abrupt resignation from cabinet of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. “The immediate and downstream costs of this level of political turmoil are yet to be determined,” write Kevin Page and fourth-year University of Ottawa Economics student Showtell Browne in their Policy piece, Five Takeaways from the 2024 Fall Economic Statement.

In the mix of pre-election spending announcements from the federal government, argues IFSD senior researcher Clara Geddes, one stands out for its long-term value-added potential. Here’s Clara Geddes with How the National School Food Program Can Make a Difference.

How do governments reconcile the ongoing necessities of fiscal crisis management with the political threat of anti-incumbency? Very carefully. In November, Kevin Page and fourth-year University of Ottawa Economics student Ali Ghadbawi filed the must-read analysis piece Governing for Growth in a Time of Polycrisis.

In October, Kevin Page and fourth-year University of Ottawa Economics student Lilas Forcade filed a piece so insightful that it was later quoted in the government’s Fall Economic Statement. Here are Kevin Page and Lilas Forcade with Canada’s Soft Landing: Inflation Down, Interest Rates Falling, Economy Growing

From our June series The Political Economy, exploring the economic factors at play in pre-election contexts on both sides of the border through the question is “‘It’s the Economy, Stupid?’ still relevant?”, IFSD summer student Kam Haq and Kevin Page with The Political Economy: A Tale of Two Elections.

From our April Budget 2024 Reaction Package, the all-important fiscal portrait from Kevin Page, with Yasmine Hadid and Hunter Vanderlaan. Here’s Budget 2024: The Cost of Fairness.

In our Budget 2024 preview series, here are Yasmine Hadid and Kevin Page with The State of the Nation’s Finances, Hunter Vanderlaan and Kevin Page with Policymaking in a Slow/no Growth Economy and Kevin, Yasmine and Hunter with Charting Spending Under the Liberal Government.

Focused on public finance and its intersection with politics and institutions, the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy (IFSD) provides evidence-based support for decision-making, budgeting, planning, due diligence, and institution-building.

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